1 / 30

Artificial Intelligence:

Can a Chinese room think? Can a machine have emotions? Can a machine ... PROGRAM[11:54:21]I am not interested in Astrology although my star sign is Libra. ...

LeeJohn
Download Presentation

Artificial Intelligence:

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

    1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Motto “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic” Arthur C. Clarke. 'Profiles of the Future' 1962 (Clarke's Third Law) 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Agenda Technologies to be managed Problems in information technology management Elements of technology management 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Information Technologies to be managed hardware software communications integration 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Problems in Information Technology Management multiplicity of technologies constantly changing technologies forecasting difficulty 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Multiplicity of Technologies - Hardware client/server smart/dumb mobile/static central/desktop/laptop/handheld 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Multiplicity of Technologies - Software philosophies – OOP, process oriented, rule based etc. operating systems – Windows versions, Unix versions, MVX, etc. languages – COBOL, C++, Java, Perl, CGI, Visual Basic, LISP … 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Multiplicity of Technologies - Communications point-to-point: copper wire/optical fibre/infrared/ wireless: local loop/cellular/satellite analog/digital mobile/static protocols (software) 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Constantly Changing Technologies instant obsolescence the variant life cycle problem integration of different generations but see also possible negative effects of standards 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Possible Disadvantages of Standards MS DOS shows the power of the marketplace in deciding which standards will be adopted most widely. Kindly stated, it is user hostile, arbitrary, over complex, intolerant of errors and novices, and badly designed. However, it became the standard across the personal computer field once IBM chose it over several now-forgotten competitors’ operating systems. It created an industry. Even though IBM introduced an entirely new operating system on its PS/2 series machines, DOS is alive and thriving … Peter G.W. Keen. Shaping The Future: Business Design Through Information technology. Harvard Business School Press, 1991. 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Forecasting Difficulty “Every big advance in the past 20 years was not predicted; they were only understood after they were in existence” McNurlin & Sprague, p.193 over-optimism – techno-hype ? effects of changing regulations (e.g. WLL - wireless local loop) effects of lack of standardization (e.g. cellular phones in US) computing – how mobile? (e.g. telecommuting) 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Examples of Techno-hype telecommuting ISDN Business Process Reengineering (BPR) Hammer, M. 1990. "Reengineering work: don't automate, obliterate," Harvard Business Review 68 (4, July-August): 104-112. Artificial Intelligence 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Forecasting Difficulty over-optimism – techno-hype effects of changing regulations (e.g. WLL) effects of lack of standardization (e.g. cellular phones in US) computing – how mobile? (e.g. telecommuting) examples from AI and Expert Systems

    13. Artificial Intelligence: History & Future

    Predicting Developments in AI The history of predictions Simon and Chess McCarthy and common sense

    14. Artificial Intelligence: History & Future

    Predicting Developments in AI The need for a sense of history, e.g. the wheel medicine the Internet

    15. Artificial Intelligence: History & Future

    Predicting Developments in AI The need for humility and perspective Given the history, how to predict the future?

    16. Artificial Intelligence: History & Future

    Can a machine think? (The Turing test) Can a machine learn? Can a Chinese room think? Can a machine have emotions? Can a machine have consciousness? Is the brain a quantum level phenomenon? What is the nature of (human) intelligence? Strong AI Questions

    17. Artificial Intelligence: History & Future

    The Loebner Prize Medal and a cash award is awarded annually to the designer of the computer system that best succeeds in passing a variant of the Turing Test. In 1999, $2,000 and a bronze medal will be awarded to the designer of the Most Human Computer as rated by a panel of judges. … the winner of the $100000 Grand Prize must be prepared to deal with audio visual input, and appropriate competitions will be held once competitors have reached Turing's 30:70 likelihood level of being mistaken for a human. An intermediate Turing Prize of $25000 will be offered for the first/best program to exceed this level.

    Robby Garner - 1999 Loebner Prize Winner *** JUDGE00 *** PROGRAM[11:30:34] PROGRAM[11:30:34]Let's start. *** JUDGE05 *** PROGRAM[11:52:22] PROGRAM[11:52:22]Ready JUDGE05[11:52:39]Hi! I'm Greg. PROGRAM[11:52:41]Hi PROGRAM[11:52:44]Nice to meet you . JUDGE05[11:53:12]How are you today? PROGRAM[11:53:13]I'm fine thanks JUDGE05[11:53:53]What sort of things are you interested in? PROGRAM[11:54:21]I am not interested in Astrology although my star sign is Libra. JUDGE05[11:54:38]Why is that? PROGRAM[11:55:05]One never knows one's destiny, that's the mystery of life. JUDGE05[11:56:25]Yes. What direction have you gone in through life so far? PROGRAM[11:56:38]Yes well they travel here but where have you travelled. PROGRAM[11:57:09]I have seen people suck coffee through a Tim Tam. Robby Garner - 1999 Loebner Prize Winner (cont’d) JUDGE05[11:58:33]A number of places. Have you tried that with tea? PROGRAM[11:58:47]Airports are such soulless places, don't you think? PROGRAM[11:58:57]Of course JUDGE05[11:59:57]Yes, but you can catch up with work there sometimes.Do you find that? PROGRAM[12:00:02]You have to be interested in politics in a democracy. JUDGE05[12:00:36]Why do you say that? PROGRAM[12:00:48]My brother thinks Dilbert portrays a very realistic picture of the software industry. JUDGE05[12:01:37]How would you relate that to politics? PROGRAM[12:01:53]That has nothing to do with politics JUDGE05[12:02:41]So why can't people be uninterested in politics? PROGRAM[12:02:56]People who play the money market don't produce anything so should therefore be ostracized from society. JUDGE05[12:04:05]How would the economy work if you did that? PROGRAM[12:04:22]I think the effects of a bad Japanese economy will be disastrous. JUDGE05[12:04:37]Goodbye. PROGRAM[12:04:37]Bye JUDGE05[12:12:05] A Young Lady’s Session with (the Rogerian) DOCTOR (ca. 1965) YOUNG LADY: Men are all alike DOCTOR: In what way YOUNG LADY: They’re always bugging us about something or other DOCTOR Can you think of a specific example YOUNG LADY: Well, my boyfriend made me come here DOCTOR: Your boyfriend made you come here YOUNG LADY: He says I’m depressed most of the time DOCTOR: I am sorry to hear you are depressed YOUNG LADY: It’s true. I am unhappy DOCTOR: Do you think coming here will help you not to be unhappy YOUNG LADY: I need some help, that much seems certain DOCTOR: What would it mean to you if you got some help YOUNG LADY: Perhaps I could learn to get along with my mother DOCTOR: Tell me more about your family YOUNG LADY: My mother takes care of me DOCTOR: Who else in your family takes care of you YOUNG LADY: My father DOCTOR: Your father YOUNG LADY: You are like my father in some ways DOCTOR: What resemblance do you see YOUNG LADY: You are not very aggressive but I think you don’t want me to notice that DOCTOR: What makes you think I am not very aggressive YOUNG LADY: You don’t argue with me DOCTOR: Why do you think I don’t argue with you YOUNG LADY: You are afraid of me DOCTOR: Does it please you to believe I am afraid of you YOUNG LADY: My father is afraid of everybody DOCTOR: What else comes to mind when you think of your father YOUNG LADY: Bullies DOCTOR: Does that have anything to do with the fact that your boyfriend made you come here A Young Lady’s Session with (the Rogerian) DOCTOR (cont’d)

    22. Loebner Competition Scores - 1999

    1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Knowledge representation, especially commonsense knowledge, is becoming the key to technological development! Forecasting Difficulty

    24. Artificial Intelligence: History & Future

    Roadblocks in the Development of AI Knowledge acquisition Representational knowledge Emergent knowledge

    25. Artificial Intelligence: History & Future

    Commonsense knowledge Implicit knowledge “John broke his piggy bank to buy Mary a Barbie doll for her birthday.” Fuzzy knowledge “canary: a small finch of the Canary Islands that is usually greenish to yellow and is kept as a cage bird and singer.” Context Roadblocks in the Development of AI

    1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Lessons From Expert Systems Edward A. Feigenbaum 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Elements of Technology Management create an architecture – a set of policies, principles and guidelines paraphrased from McNurlin & Sprague, p. 191 creating an architecture requires a vision 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Elements of Technology Management Positioning the IT Platform scope range growth standards adaptability to new developments adaptability to organizational needs 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Elements of Technology Management Final Thoughts develop a vision of where you want the IT platform to be in the future in terms of the organizations needs observe critically – beware of magic bullets be sceptical! 1242.2219 Information System Economics Technology Management Summary Technologies to be managed Problems in information technology management multiple technologies changing technologies standards forecasting technohype Elements of technology management
More Related