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23 July 2009

ASSOCIATES. A Division of Applied Research Associates, Inc. R. Presented to: Army Research Laboratory Advanced Decision Architectures Workshop. Gary Klein, Ph.D. Applied Research Associates, Inc. Advancing Our Understanding of Battlefield Decision Making. 23 July 2009.

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23 July 2009

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  1. ASSOCIATES A Division of Applied Research Associates, Inc. R Presented to: Army Research Laboratory Advanced Decision Architectures Workshop Gary Klein, Ph.D. Applied Research Associates, Inc. Advancing Our Understanding of Battlefield Decision Making 23 July 2009

  2. Six Types of Knowledge Explicit Knowledge: 1.Declarative information 2.Routines & procedures Tacit Knowledge: 3.Pattern recognition 4.Perceptual discriminations 5.Mental models 6. Judging typicality

  3. “Working Minds: A Practitioner’s Guide to CTA” (Crandall, Klein, & Hoffman, 2004, MIT Press)

  4. CTA with Intelligence Analysts • Interviewed 15 Intelligence Analysts • Used Cognitive Task Analysis interview and analysis techniques • Used a Modified Knowledge Audit Technique • Developed an Interview Guide with Profiling-specific questions • Organizations Visited to Find Daily Profilers (# of interviewees): • National Air and Space Intelligence Center (1) • Joint Forces Intelligence Command (6) • Joint Warfare Analysis Center (1) • National Ground Intelligence Center (7)

  5. Findings Related to Design Concepts • Analysts frequently use simple queries when sophisticated queries would yield better results • Design: Analysts need support in simplifying the construction of sophisticated queries • Analysts reluctant to change query strategy • Design: Results comparison could explicitly illustrate merit of queries • Collaboration is a strategy of expert, well-networked analysts • Design: Make query-building collaboration broadly accessible • Analysts can infer information and intelligence from message arrival rate • Design: Make arrival rate information explicitly available

  6. Army Field Manual 6.0 RPD and Military Planning Military Decision-Making Process (MDMP) Intuitive Decision Making

  7. Recognitional Planning Model The “DECISION” (subject to analysis and evaluation) Identify Mission Situational Information Guidance/ Tasking from HHQ Analyze/ Operationalize COA Conceptualize COA Wargame COA Develop OpOrd DISSEMINATE EXECUTE IMPROVISE Once the COA satisfices in the wargame and/or analysis, it has become “the PLAN.” No need to compare options.

  8. Results: Participant Comments • Favorable After Action Review comments increased on each succeeding day. • “I think it’s great, because it’s faster than MDMP.” • “I like it if the commander and his staff are open to critical thinking and can see improvements to the plan and options.” • “I like the CDR-driven focus and involvement.” • “RPM is the abbreviated MDMP process being practiced by many units. It is good to codify the abbreviated process.” • “I think the RPM model has its place but I also think it will require further study before the military adopts it as our new MDMP.”

  9. Recognitional Planning Model • Participants estimated the RPM would take at least 30% less time than the MDMP • Studies of RPM in UK also show superiority of RPM to other methods • Division-level planning groups in the Swedish Army • Groups using RPM needed 17% less time to select a COA • Plan quality was 10% higher than those generated using the MDMP, based on a panel of experts headed by a BG • RPM was rated as more suited for planning under realistic conditions (4.58 vs. 3.12 on a 6-point scale) • The Swedish Army has adopted its version of the RPM in its new field manual

  10. Replanning

  11. Milestone Planning • Flight plan in aviation: Getting from Point A to Point B • Monitoring progress toward goals only makes sense if the goals don’t change • But: Point B may not exist • Planning for ill-defined goals • Simultaneously solve and discover goal properties (Klein & Weitzenfeld, 1978)

  12. U.S. Army Examples of Wicked Problems • Restore the educational system in Iraq • Arrest war criminals in Kosovo • Evaluate the Future Combat System (FCS), which keeps changing • Provide Baghdad with electricity eight hours a day • Operation Iraqi Freedom: Free Iraq

  13. Management by Discovery (MBD)is Revising Goals as You Pursue Them MBD helps you manage organizations, projects and people under unpredictable conditions -- when you can't nail down the goals and schedules. MBD prepares you to re-frame and adapt as you go along.

  14. Concept ofManagement by Discovery (MBD) • MBD is a strategy for achieving desirable outcomes in the face of complexity, wicked problems, and ill-defined goals. • “Desirable outcomes” vs. “the desired outcomes” • 40-60% of programs/projects involve wicked problems and ill-defined goals. • These are often the most critical and high priority efforts • Management by Objectives (MBO) works best in well-ordered situations. • Focus of MB/Discovery is on rapidly learning what the goals really are. • Versus MBO which locks into reaching the initial goals

  15. Adapting (Re-) Planning Detecting Problems Sensemaking Deciding Coordinating Maintaining Common Ground Managing Attention Developing Mental Models Identifying Leverage Points Mentally Simulating & Storybuilding Managing Uncertainty & Risk

  16. ASSOCIATES A Division of Applied Research Associates, Inc. R Gary Klein, Ph.D. Klein Associates A Division of Applied Research Associates, Inc. 1750 Commerce Center Blvd. North Fairborn, OH 45324 937.873.8166 gary@decisionmaking.com http://www.ara.com/offices/OH.htm

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