Constructive Technology Assessment: Supporting Reflexive Co-evolution through Socio-technical Scenarios

1. University of Twente Constructive Technology Assessment: Supporting Reflexive Co-evolution through Socio-technical Scenarios Arie Rip and Haico te Kulve(University of Twente / NanoNed consortium)

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3. University of Twente ETC Group on nanotechnology �Just as with biotech, we are not suggesting that this field of research should be abandoned. But now � before the commercial hype and corporate pressures are too great � society should establish the benchmarks and ground rules for its investigation. Extreme care should be taken that, unlike with biotech, society does not lose control of this technology.� �We argue that any new technology introduced into a society that is not a fundamentally just society will, at least initially, exacerbate the gap between rich and poor. Also with the merging of nano and biotechnology � our children may be in a world controlled by a handful of corporate oligopolies.�

4. University of Twente Firm-level version of the dilemma Verganti (1999) on the anticipation dilemma: At an early stage in product development, much is still unclear, but one has to make choices for certain directions to go, in order to achieve something (anything). This then reduces (strategic) flexibility Verganti advises �planned flexibility�: start with broad choices, anticipate what further stages of development might be, and identify later decision points to become more operational

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6. University of Twente Take a closer look at the dilemma Assessments occur all the time � so lots of tiny dilemmas? And analyze: which actors, interaction patterns? Also: the world is changing: ELSA of new ST, precautionary approaches, public participation, citizen juries etc.So more acceptance of early assessment

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9. University of Twente Actors and interaction patterns Technological change, in our societies, is carried & pushed by promoters (�enactors�). Others, e.g. regulators, have to consider possible impacts and mitigate them. Division of labour -- with regulators coming in too late? So precautionary approaches? Early warnings by scientists, NGOs? But also �promise champions�. So a contrast.

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11. University of Twente Constructive TA New actors, new interactions occur (incl. bridging events), can be further improved Constructive TA: analyze socio-technical dynamics, feed insights back to variety of actors � so dynamics are modulated (rather than controlled) Constructive TA aims to broaden design, development and embedding in society by including more aspects and more actors

12. University of Twente Reflexive co-evolution Also a broader aim of CTA: make co-evolution of technology and society (which is going on anyhow) more reflexive Does not guarantee a solution to Collingridge�s concern about things going wrong � but that is part of the condition humaine. It does add governance arrangements to the equation � which is important.

13. University of Twente CTA of nanotechnology Doubly-fictional character: many applications are still science fiction, and their embedding & impact is social science fiction (esp. ethical discussions reify such possible futures, so as to have an object of discussion) Specific approaches: Sociotechnical scenarios (analysis) and feedback/modulation (action) Two types:concentric (around technology paths)multi-level (domain/sector and structures)

14. University of Twente Socio-technical Scenarios Trace dynamics, as well as innovation paths (�emerging irreversibilities�), shifts in industrial (+) networks, Create socio-technical scenarios for further development (including forks and blockages) on that basis These help structure discussion (workshops), strategy articulation, pro-active policy making

15. University of Twente Type 1: concentric Start with actual innovation �journey� Type 1A: May be at an early stage, so eventual functionalities and performance of new technology/product are unclear Type 1B: At a later stage, unclarity is about the overall system and its embedment in society (example of social experiments with introduction of electric vehicles)

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17. University of Twente CTA broadens �design�, induces reflection, at an early stage Has an upstream bias: better outcomes result from doing better at an earlier stage. (Upstream public engagement has the same bias, but focuses on actors with little or no agency) The return of determinism (after social construction), but now as an exhortation to actors? Reflexive determinism! Is necessary anyhow, at an early stage of a new ST

18. University of Twente Use of Sociotechnical Scenarios CTA uses sociotechnical scenarios to articulate �endogenous futures�, i.e. emerging and partially stabilized patterns and structures which shape action and thinking � and thus what happens Such scenarios appeal to enactors with their �future scripts�, and when taken up, forces them to broaden their own (diffuse) scenarios. (See example of lab-in-a-cell)

19. University of Twente Use for other actors Stakeholders and other interested parties, NGOs as commentators and critics participate in interactive workshops Scenarios then add substance to the interactions; so the interaction is not just about participation & empowerment (as with public engagement exercises)

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21. University of Twente Stage Mapping of possible applications and creating roadmaps. Challenge Early stages mean that: visions of applications will change over time as you get closer to the right of the diagram. New research findings, changing political and industrial landscapes as well as societal change over time, meaning more flexible approaches to roadmapping.Stage Mapping of possible applications and creating roadmaps. Challenge Early stages mean that: visions of applications will change over time as you get closer to the right of the diagram. New research findings, changing political and industrial landscapes as well as societal change over time, meaning more flexible approaches to roadmapping.

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25. University of Twente Comment on workshop Little ELSA was discussed, although there were openings Pursuing discussion of ELSA is easier for a concrete product or range of products (like an electrolyte analyser allowing point-of-care measurements) Add societal embedding to the vertical axis of the diagram

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28. University of Twente Reflection: paradox of agency Existing and emerging paths (irreversibilities) shape views and actions Sociotechnical scenarios draw on these paths (�endogenous futures�) Workshops where actorsreflect and choose directionsto go

29. University of Twente Gartner Group: Technology Hype Cycle Sedimented expectations about how things will go (cf. folk theory)Sedimented expectations about how things will go (cf. folk theory)

30. University of Twente Structure � agency dialectics Things will go this way (master curve) But if you understand it (and hire Gartner Group as consultant), you can escape from it by acting Similarly, wow-to-yuck curve for biotech, perhaps for nanotech: paint it as inevitable (to get a hearing), then argue mistakes were made then, and we can learn and do better now.(Vicky Colvin, Congressional hearing on nanotechnology bill, 9 April 2003)

31. University of Twente Multi-level dynamics Instead of innovation journeys (in context) and emerging paths, look at the dynamics of the context as well, and the patterns that emerge. Meso-level: sectors and industries Macro-level: regulation, societal debate A further kind of agency: playing on the multi-level dynamics.

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33. University of Twente Eventual alignment Sought for by dedicated actors like promise champions and institutional entrepreneurs, but also happens through interactions, third parties, with unintended outcomes Multi-level alignment implies vicarious stabilization: other levels are not easily influenced For scenarios, focus on �linking pin� entrepreneurs (across levels) and spaces, forums (where different actors interact)

34. University of Twente Add: Evolving industry structures as intermediary variable Industry structure+ Includes relations between actors & technologies:- anticipatory coordination- endogenization of regulation (e.g. voluntary reporting, codes of conduct)- new actors (regional authorities, NGOs, insurance actors, �) Shapes margins of manoeuvre and actor-strategies, and thus outcomes (de facto governance)

35. University of Twente Food sector Projections: nanotech-enabled food product markets $20.4 billion in 2010 Concerns about what happens to food (you put it inside you, so want it to be �pure�). For present scenario, focus on food packaging � seems less controversial, at least, on the surface. But downstream issues: transfer of responsibility for food quality from actors to packaging sensors; rich/poor divide with respect to high quality food.

36. University of Twente Industry structure+ Incumbents at begin and end of packaging value chain: loci of innovative power together with traditionally involved institutes Critical NGO�s not active in packaging yet, but included in the prospective structures: �The food industry is hooked on nano-tech's promises, but it is also very nervous (The Observer, 2006)�

37. University of Twente Entrepreneurs linking levels Sustainpack � EU co-funded consortium of academia, packaging researchers, firms. Develops nano improved paper and cardboard packaging. Co-ordination by STFI-Packforsk Linking actors with the purpose �to establish fibre-based packaging as the dominant player in the packaging area within a decade.� Linking levels: EU support for environmentally friendly packaging materials.

38. University of Twente Entrepreneurs linking levels Dutch MinacNed: developed a roadmap of nanotechnology enabled applications � constructing linkages between �consumer demands� and nano R&D activities. Called for establishment of �innovative clusters� to realize the roadmap � substantial co-operation between firms, institutes and universities. But firms are hesitant to step in � uncertainties about RoI (Return on Investment), about risks of nanoparticles, about consumer perceptions, and availability of additional funding. Also uncertainties for researchers: participation in innovation trajectories vs scientific publications?

39. University of Twente Development of nano packaging: an impasse?

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41. University of Twente Scenario 1: Only Little Nano Research conducted in a protected space, but research institutes shift research agenda. Research institutes anticipate on valorization / innovation discourse (working through in funding possibilities) Prioritizing short term valorization of research Research institutes pro-actively address firms� pragmatic challenges Nano bubble bursts, no materialization of (long term) nano products promises Little ELSA of nano

42. University of Twente Scenario 2: Regulation helps Food authorities enter the stage and press on with regulatory activities with respect to packaging risks. Hazards of nano materials are also pressed by NGO�s A fork occurs. SMEs, start ups anticipate further controversies / regulatory barriers and exit Start to explore alternatives: biodegradable packaging. Incumbents welcome regulations, proceed cautiously with development of nano food packaging products ELSA is reduced to HES risks

43. University of Twente Scenario 3: Thresholds are passed Academic and nano firm associations align with consumer organizations, risk assessment institutes : broad platform Successfully mobilizes financial and symbolic resources (legitimacy) to develop nanotechnologies European TP on food takes up platform initiative and focuses on development of nanotechnologies for food First results nano packaging encourage pharmaceutical companies to join in further development of nano packaging Prudent ELSA

44. University of Twente Conclusions about nano/food Not much nano in food packaging yet, but structures in which nano can be developed are emerging. Key role of platforms for development of nano + ELSA. Food sector sensitive to new technologies in general (�pure� vs �artificial�) � but major thrust in nano-enabled food is directed to health aspects may tip balance in favour of nano, cf. green/red biotech supported by trend towards nutriceuticals etc merger between food and health sectors?

45. University of Twente General conclusions Doubly fictional character of nano, but already embedded in emerging patterns and structures. Mutual shaping of technology (and promises about technology) and emerging infrastructures and governance Often consciously, so reflexive co-evolution. Improve reflexivity by making sociotechnical scenarios for use in scenario-articulation workshops and elsewhere

46. University of Twente Different industry structure+ in different nano-domains Concentration in micro/nano-electronics, is recognized and anticipated Small firms in bionano (but now also interest from big firms incl. pharmaceutical) Mixed picture for nanomaterials & surfaces (& coatings)

47. University of Twente Micro/nano-electronics Strong paths (cf. lithography) are pursued but may run against limits (Moore�s Law) Also new options: - large-area electronics (based on semi-conducting polymeric), systems-in-a-foil etc- (longer term) nano-level phenomena are exploited Actors anticipate: new industry structures (e.g. reshuffling: Infineon (from Siemens), NXP (Philips semicon), etc.), attempts at strategic coordination (forums)

48. University of Twente European Nanoelectronics Initiative Advisory Council (ENIAC) ENIAC calls itself the European Platform for Nano-electronics (and is supported by the EU), but also tries to enroll further stakeholders and interested actors (�You are invited to submit an Expression of Interest (�) submitted via email to Fred van Roosmalen ..�) An indication that European Technology Platforms are not just a further instrument of the European Commission, but actually capture ongoing dynamics and carry them further.

49. University of Twente Global level ENIAC actors are active globally, coordinating with US (Intel, Sematech) and Japan (cf. INC2 and now INC3 conferences) � in other words, nano-electronics challenges are taken up globally, with key actors attempting to find places/spaces to interact and coordinate, or at least be able to adjust own strategies knowing about the strategies of other important actors. now also a global dialogue on responsible innovation in nanoscience and nanotechnologies (meetings in 2004 (Alexandria, VA), 2006 (Tokyo) and 2007 (Brussels) is being prepared)

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