1 / 13

Socio-Economic Scenarios

Socio-Economic Scenarios. Roberto Roson University of Venice, FEEM & ICTP Richard S.J. Tol Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon Universities. RT7 Team. FNU, Hamburg University and ZMAW Richard Tol FEEM, Venice Roberto Roson CIRED, Paris Jean-Charles Hourcade IIASA, Vienna Brian O‘Neill

ayanna
Download Presentation

Socio-Economic Scenarios

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Socio-Economic Scenarios Roberto Roson University of Venice, FEEM & ICTP Richard S.J. Tol Hamburg, Vrije and Carnegie Mellon Universities

  2. RT7 Team • FNU, Hamburg University and ZMAW • Richard Tol • FEEM, Venice • Roberto Roson • CIRED, Paris • Jean-Charles Hourcade • IIASA, Vienna • Brian O‘Neill • RIVM, Utrecht • Tom Kram • CICERO, Oslo • Asbjorn Aaheim • LSHTM, London • Sari Kovats

  3. Tasks • Ensembles of emissions scenarios • Ensembles of emission reduction scenarios • Scenarios of land use and adaptive capacity • Feedback of climate change on emissions scenarios through impacts of climate change on economy and human health • Towards the construction of the economic component of an earth system model

  4. Emissions scenarios • Events have overtaken this task • GCMs have started running the SRES scenarios, and there have always been ensembles of scenarios available • We can extend this in the light of the recent critique on SRES and IPCC and recent model developments • We can add a fifth, politically incorrect scenario • But only if you intend to run it ...

  5. Emissions scenarios ENSEMBLES Objective Needed

  6. Emission reduction scenarios • USDoE, EMF and ENSEMBLES RT7 decided to join forces in developing emission reduction scenarios • Emission reduction scenarios need to specify four things • No control scenario (SRES) • Stabilisation target (450, 550, 650, 750 ppm CO2, CO2eq, rad. forc., temperature) • Reduction target allocation over space and time • Implementation • Aim is to find a small, representative number of cases

  7. Land use • Run IIASA and RIVM models for the above scenarios • Work towards LPJ - Land use Adaptive capacity • Is needed for impacts • Add further detail to the population and economic drivers of the emissions scenarios

  8. Conventional, scenario-based analyses… emissions Climate systems Socio-economic systems

  9. Conventional, scenario-based analyses… emissions Climate systems Socio-economic systems …miss one important feedback!

  10. Assessing the economic impact of climate change:some key concepts • Multiplicity of effects • e.g., sea level, health, tourism, energy demand, water availability, extreme events, land use, agricultural productivity… • Market interdependence • General equilibrium • Computable general equilibrium models (CGE)

  11. Computable General Equilibrium Models:Pros and Cons • + a unifying framework for the consistent analysis of heterogeneous impacts; • + a widely accepted assessment tool; • + general-purpose and flexible; • - data demanding; • - rarely used on long-term horizons; • - national accounting, market based parameter estimation; • - calibrated, cannot readily take into account non observable technologies.

  12. Simulation experiments of climate change impacts

  13. Some further remarks • Others, more significant impacts • Dynamics

More Related