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SYKE progress and plans for WP6.2

SYKE progress and plans for WP6.2. ENSEMBLES WP6.2 meeting Prague, 12 November 2007. Stefan Fronzek and Timothy R. Carter Finnish Environment Institute. Progress. Manuscript on case study with response surfaces.

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SYKE progress and plans for WP6.2

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  1. SYKE progress and plans for WP6.2 ENSEMBLES WP6.2 meeting Prague, 12 November 2007 Stefan Fronzek and Timothy R. Carter Finnish Environment Institute

  2. Progress Manuscript on case study with response surfaces • Fronzek, Carter, Räisänen, Ruokalainen & Luoto: “Applying probabilistic projections of climate change with impact models: a case study for sub-arctic palsa mires in Fennoscandia”, manuscript • Comparison of response surface approach with multiple scenario simulations • Uses joint distributions of ΔT and P-change from resampled AR4-GCM simulations, Räisänen & Ruokolainen (2006)

  3. Progress Joint frequency distributions of T- and P-changes from Hadley Centre’s perturbed physics experiment, Harris et al. Glen Harris currently prepares: • Monthly or seasonal changes • Grid cells (maybe incl. UK), also for area averages of 16 regions (larger catchments) • SRES A1B • n > 5000 • Annual T- and P-changes • Grid cells, European coverage excluding UK • 21-year time-slices through to 2100 relative to 1961-1990

  4. Plans Potential dry matter grain yield in rain-fed winter wheat Probability of decreasing yield (%) 2040-60 relative to 1961-90 (n>5000) SRES A1B, PertPhys experiment • Regression model from site-based output of themechanistic crop model DAISY (Olesen et al. 2007, Clim Ch 81, Suppl. 1) • European-scale analysis to complement site-based DAISY simulations of DJF CO2 concentration kept constant at baseline level

  5. Plans Seasonal pattern of monthly temperature changes Resampled 21 GCMs at N Fennoscandian grid cell with A1B (n=168) 2041-2070 relativeto 1961-1990 Ensemble average scaled by annual ΔT Scaled by annual ΔT Scope for a more generic analysis on European scale for temperature and precipitation? ΔT (K) Scaled ΔT (K/K) Scaled ΔT (K/K) - Individual ensemble members- Average of all members- Sample member with max and min range of monthly ΔT

  6. Plans Contributions to deliverables • D6.13: Methodological report on the linking of preliminary probabilistic projections from the Ensemble Prediction System to impact models. Month 42 (Feb 2008) • D6.14: Joint WP 6.2 paper on the use of probabilistic climate projections in assessing the risk of impacts in Europe. Month 54 (Feb 2009) Possible contributions: • Case studies that utilize response surfaces and multiple scenario simulations (palsa, winter wheat yield) • Methodological issues: analysis of seasonal pattern of T- and P-change;

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