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Predicting Students’ Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8 th Grade MSA

Predicting Students’ Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8 th Grade MSA. M. Wang and A. Milam Division of Accountability, Assessment, and Research . 1. Background.

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Predicting Students’ Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8 th Grade MSA

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  1. Predicting Students’ Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8th Grade MSA M. Wang and A. Milam Division of Accountability, Assessment, and Research 1

  2. Background • A total of 4664 studentswho took the 8th Grade MSA Reading and MSA Math in 2003-04 and were still AACPS students in 2007-08 were included in the study. • Under normal circumstances, the 4664 students should be the 12 graders in the 2007-08 school year. • For students who took SAT multiple times, only the highest score was used for the analysis. 2

  3. Questions • What are the SAT score distributions? • How many of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced students have never taken the SAT by the end of the 2007-08 school year? • What grade levels did students in each MSA level usually take the SAT? • How well do students’ performances on the MSA predict their performances on the SAT? • What SAT scores are the 8th grade MSA Advanced students predicted to receive based on their MSA scores? 3

  4. Distribution of the SAT Math Scores 4

  5. Distribution of the SAT Verbal Scores 5

  6. Distribution of the SAT Writing Scores 6

  7. Distribution of the Combined SAT Verbal, Math, and Writing Scores 7

  8. Frequency Table of the SAT Math Scores – By Ethnicity • * Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 25.6% scored at least 600 points and 60.4% scored • at least 500 points on the SAT Math. • Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least 500 or 600 points on the SAT Math than other ethnic • groups of students. • “N” stands for number of students. 8

  9. Frequency Table of the SAT Verbal Scores – By Ethnicity • * Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 20.2% scored at least 600 points and 54.5% scored • at least 500 points on the SAT Verbal. • ** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Verbal • than other ethnic groups of students. • “N” stands for number of students. 9

  10. Frequency Table of the SAT Writing Scores – By Ethnicity • * Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 15.6% scored at least 600 points and 50.8% scored • at least 500 points on the SAT Writing. • ** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Writing • than other ethnic groups of students. • “N” stands for number of students. 10

  11. Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores – By Ethnicity • * Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 17.0% scored at least a total of 1800 points and • 48% scored at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT. • Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT • than other ethnic groups of students. • “N” stands for number of students. 11

  12. SAT Test Status – By Ethnicity • By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 84.8% of the Asian, 46.0% of the African American, 33.3% of the Hispanic, 57.1% of the American Indian, and 53.4% of the White students have taken the SAT. • *Asian students had the highest SAT test taken rate. 12

  13. SAT Test Status – By MSA Math Proficiency Level • By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 26.5% of the MSA Basic students, 57.1% of the MSA Proficient, and 86.4% of the MSA Advanced students in Math have taken the SAT. • * By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 13.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA advanced students in Math have never taken the SAT. 13

  14. SAT Test Status – By MSA Reading Proficiency Level • By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 24.0% of the MSA Basic students, 53.6% of the MSA Proficient, and 81.4% of the MSA Advanced students in Reading have taken the SAT. • * By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 18.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading have never taken the SAT. 14

  15. SAT Test Status for the Students Who Scored Advanced in Both Math and Reading Portions of the MSA * By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 8.7% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading and Math have never taken the SAT. ** Note: One of the 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students did not take the SAT Writing test. 15

  16. Frequency Table of the Ethnicities of the 59 MSA Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by the End of the 2007-08 School Year *Of the 59 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SAT by the end of the 2007-08 school year, 86.4% are White students.

  17. Frequency Table of the High Schools of the 59 MSA Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by the End of the 2007-08 School Year * Of the 59 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SAT by the end of the 2007-08 school year, 11 were Broadneck High School students.

  18. Grade Levels of the Students When They Took the SAT – By MSA Math Proficiency Level • * The student took the SAT in June 2008. She was still repeating Grade 10, although under normal circumstances, • she should be a 12th grader. • Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12, if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8th grade • MSA Math; and more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11, if they scored Advanced on the 8th grade MSA Math.

  19. Grade Levels of the Students When They Took the SAT – By MSA Reading Proficiency Level • Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12, if they scored Basic or Proficient • on the 8th grade MSA Reading; and more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11, if they scored • Advanced on the 8th grade MSA Reading. 19

  20. Correlation between the 8th Grade MSA Scale Scores and the SAT Scores • * The 8th grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal/Writing Scores are strongly correlated. • ** The 8th grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score are strongly correlated. • ***The combined 8th grade MSA Math & Reading Scale Score and the combined SAT score are strongly • correlated. 20

  21. Predicting Students’ SAT Math Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA Math * Of the 470 students who scored Basic on the 8th grade MSA Math, 81.9% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Math. ** Of the 1027 students scoring proficient on the 8th grade MSA Math, 85.4% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Math. *** Of the 944 students scoring Advanced on the 8th grade MSA Math, 94.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Math. 21

  22. Predicting Students’ SAT Verbal Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA Reading * Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.1% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Verbal. ** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 81.8% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Verbal. *** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 86.8% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Verbal. 22

  23. Predicting Students’ SAT Writing Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA Reading * Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.4% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Writing. ** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 77.3% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Writing. *** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 82.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Writing. 23

  24. The Scatter Plot of the 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score 24

  25. The Scatter Plot of the 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal Score 25

  26. The Scatter Plot of the 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Writing Score 26

  27. The Scatter Plot of the Combined 8th Grade MSA Math/Reading Scale Score and the Combined SAT Score The Total SAT Score • The lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced • 8th grade MSA Math is 869. 27

  28. The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores to the SAT Math Scores - By Linear Regression * The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Math is 444, which corresponds to 550 points on the SAT Math test. ** The corresponding 8th grade MSA Math scores to 600 points on the SAT Math test are 435 (lower end), 465 (estimated), and 497(upper end). 28

  29. The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores to the SAT Verbal Scores – By Linear Regression * The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 521 points on the SAT Verbal test. ** The corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Verbal test are 420 (lower end), 456 (estimated), and 495 (upper end). 29

  30. The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores to the SAT Writing Scores – By Linear Regression * The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 508 points on the SAT Writing test. ** The corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Writing test are 425 (lower end), 463 (estimated), and 504 (upper end). 30

  31. The Corresponding Combined 8th Grade MSA Reading& Math Scale Scores to the Combined SAT Scores – By Linear Regression * The lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Math is 869, which corresponds to 1593 points on the SAT. ** The corresponding combined 8th grade MSA Reading and Math scores to 1800 points on the SAT total test are 867 (lower end), 922 (estimated), and 980 (upper end). 31

  32. Predicting Students’ Performances on SAT Math Using Their 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores * Students who scored higher than or equal to 465 on the 8th grade MSA Math had a 82.1% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Math. ** Students who scored lower than 465 on the 8th grade MSA Math had a 83.4% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Math. 32

  33. Predicting Students’ Performances on SAT Verbal Using Their 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores * Students who scored higher than or equal to 456 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a 70.5% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Verbal. ** Students who scored lower than 465 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a 85.4% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Verbal. *** Not many students scored 495 or higher on the 8th grade MSA Reading. 33

  34. Predicting Students’ Performances on SAT Writing Using Their 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores * Students who scored higher than or equal to 463 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a 62.4% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Writing. ** Students who scored lower than 463 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a 86.8% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Writing. *** Students had a 85.7% chance of scoring 600 or higher on the SAT Writing test if they scored 504 or higher on the 8th grade MSA Reading. However, there were not many students scoring 504 or higher on the 8th grade MSA Reading. 34

  35. Predicting Students’ Performances on Combined SAT Using Their Combined 8th Grade MSA Reading and Math Scale Scores * Students who scored higher than or equal to 922 on the combined 8th grade MSA Reading and Math had a 79.0% chance of scoring at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT. ** Students who scored lower than 922 on the combined 8th grade MSA Reading and Math had a 88.4% chance of scoring lower than 1800 on the SAT. *** Students had a 88.2% chance of scoring at least a total of 1800 on the SAT if they scored 980 or higher on the combined 8th grade MSA. However, there were not many students scoring 980 or higher on the combined 8th grade MSA. 35

  36. Correct Percent of Using the MSA Math Or Reading Score to Predict Whether Students Scoring At Least or Lower Than 600 Points on an SAT Subject Test * Best Predictors 36

  37. Correct Percent of Using the Combined MSA Math & Reading Score to Predict Whether Students Scoring at Least or Lower Than a Total of 1800 Points on the SAT * Best Predictors 37

  38. Predicting the 8th Grade MSA Advanced Students’ Performances on the SAT 38

  39. Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores for Students Scoring Advanced on the 8th Grade MSA Math and Reading - By Ethnicity * Of the 618 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students, 86.5% scored at least a total of 1600 points and 51.6% scored at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT. ** African American students who were advanced on the 8th grade MSA Math and Reading had a smaller chance to score at least a total of 1600 points on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students. 39

  40. Predicted SAT Math Scores of the 8th Grade MSA Math Advanced Students • * The average SAT Math score of the 8th grade MSA Math advanced students is 610. • For example, students scoring between 444 and 453 on the 8th grade MSA Math had an average of • 570 points on the SAT Math. 40

  41. Predicted SAT Verbal Scores of the 8th Grade MSA Reading Advanced Students * The average SAT Verbal score of the 8th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 581. 41

  42. Predicted SAT Writing Scores of the 8th Grade MSA Reading Advanced Students * The average SAT Writing score of the 8th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 565. 42

  43. Predicted Total SAT Scores of the 8th Grade MSA Reading and Math Advanced Students * The average total SAT score of the 8th grade MSA Reading and Math advanced students is 1812. 43

  44. Summary SAT Performance • Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who have taken the SAT, 17% scored at least a total of 1800 points and 48% scored at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT. • Asian and White students scored higher on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students. Test Status by MSA Proficiency Level or Ethnicity • By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 84.8% of the Asian, 46.0% of the African American, 33.3% of the Hispanic, 57.1% of the American Indian, and 53.4% of the White students have taken the SAT. • By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 13.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA advanced students in Math have never taken the SAT. • By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 18.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA advanced students in Reading have never taken the SAT. • By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 8.7 % of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading and Math have never taken the SAT. • Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12 if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8th grade MSA Math or Reading. • Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11 if they scored Advanced on the 8th grade MSA Math or Reading. 44

  45. Summary Correlation • The 8th grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient 0.821. • The 8th grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal/Writing Scores are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient 0.722/0.702. • The combined 8th grade MSA Math & Reading Scale Score and the combined SAT score are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient 0.835. MSA Advanced Students • The average SAT Math score of the 8th grade MSA Math advanced students is 610. • The average SAT Verbal and Writing scores of the 8th grade MSA Reading advanced students are 581 and 565, respectively. • The average total SAT score of the 8th grade MSA Reading and Math advanced students is 1812. • The predicted SAT score ranges using the 8th grade MSA advanced scores (in 10-15 points of increment) are available. 45

  46. Summary - Predicting Students’ SAT Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA MSA Math and SAT Math • The 8th grade MSA Math Basic students had a 81.9% chance of scoring between 300 and 490 on the SAT Math. • The 8th grade MSA Math Proficient students had a 85.4% chance of scoring between 400 and 590 on the SAT Math. • The 8th grade MSA Math Advanced students had a 94.9% chance of scoring between 500 and 800 on the SAT Math. MSA Reading and SAT Verbal • The 8th grade MSA Reading Basic students had a 84.1% chance of scoring between 300 and 490 on the SAT Verbal. • The 8th grade MSA Reading Proficient students had a 81.8% chance of scoring between 400 and 590 on the SAT Verbal. • The 8th grade MSA Reading Advanced students had a 86.8% chance of scoring between 500 and 800 on the SAT Verbal. MSA Reading and SAT Writing • The 8th grade MSA Reading Basic students had a 84.4% chance of scoring between 300 and 490 on the SAT Writing. • The 8th grade MSA Reading Proficient students had a 77.3% chance of scoring between 400 and 590 on the SAT Writing. • The 8th grade MSA Reading Advanced students had a 82.9% chance of scoring between 500 and 800 on the SAT Writing. 46

  47. Summary - The Corresponding SAT Scores to the Advanced Cut Scores of the 8th Grade MSA and the Best 8th Grade MSA Scores Corresponding to 600 points on the SAT MSA Math and SAT Math • The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Math is 444, which corresponds to 550 points on the SAT Math test. • The best corresponding 8th grade MSA Math score to 600 points on the SAT Math test is 465, which gives a 83.4% of correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least 600 points on SAT Math. MSA Reading and SAT Verbal • The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 521 points on the SAT Verbal test. • The best corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading score to 600 points on the SAT Verbal test is 456, which provides a 83.9% correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least 600 points on SAT Verbal. MSA Reading and SAT Writing • The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 508 points on the SAT Writing test. • The best corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Writing test is 463, which gives a 85.6% correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least 600 points on SAT Writing. 47

  48. Summary - The Corresponding Total SAT scores to the Lowest Combined 8th Grade MSA Advanced Cut Scores and the Best Combined 8th Grade MSA Scores Corresponding to 1800 points on the SAT • The lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Math is 869, which corresponds to 1593 points on the SAT. • The best corresponding total 8th grade MSA score to a total of 1800 points on the SAT is 922, which gives an 87.7% of correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT. 48

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