“The Future of Secondary Publishing (Take II)”

1. “The Future of Secondary Publishing (Take II)” Dennis Auld NFAIS Annual Conference February 20-23, 2000

2. Last year, in the 1999 NFAIS talk “The Future of Secondary Publishing”, which you can also see on the e-psyche web site, I presented several specific points that secondary publishers needed to think about in order to be successful in the coming Internet driven distribution media. • That presentation was presented in a framework of short, medium, and long term goals. • This year, to use current terminology, I’m going to look at this subject from the 10,000 foot view. I’m going to talk about events and trends, indicate what they mean to secondary publishers, and then give two examples.

3. Events/Trends - Search Engines • 3,040 search engines, portals, directories • Estimated 800 million pages • FAST Search - 300 million pages • Internet engines not working • Human indexing replacing spiders • Combining targeted content and search • Traditional services providing content

4. The major forces that are occurring in relation to search engines are: • The web is growing too fast for search engines to keep up. • Much more narrowly focused packages of search engine and content are appearing at a rapidly growing rate. • Human indexing is replacing spiders. • Traditional services are contributing content to new web sites other than their own. • Lets look at some of these sites

5. Search Engine Guide. Com - They have identified over 3,000 search engine directories, portals, directories. • They categorize the site, giving brief descriptions • They allow you to link to the site • Office.com • Combines content, commerce, community & communications • Focuses on the needs of small business • Includes hierarchies, categories, key word searching to help user find what they want • Mixes free and charged for materials • Octopus.com • Searches the web and puts information into views that the user creates • Incorporating elements of push & pull technologies • Does not link you to the web site, but selects and pulls content into your views • Originators of Hotmail, and has an e-mail slant

9. We've all heard that a million monkeys banging on a million typewriters will eventually reproduce the entire works of Shakespeare. Now, thanks to the Internet, we know this is not true.

10. MediaDNA.com • Combines searching with intellectual property protection technologies • Content providers get the benefit of exposure thru the general web search engines • Content providers have their content protected, and paid for if desired • Academic Press has material on this site. • Justajoke.com • As Charlie Chaplin said “In the end, everything is a gag.” • Keyword searchable, categorized, another specific content.search site.

13. Events/Trends - Pre-prints • Gaining momentum • Diverse fields • Publishers’ acceptance

14. Electronic pre-prints for publication is happening. The definitions of the various stages of publication are beginning to blur. • Los Alamos high energy physics pre-print site • Most famous (or infamous) • Around since 1991 • Over 100,000 submissions • Average time from submission to “accepted final draft” is 9 months • 35,000 users daily • Activity at this site • This graph shows activity since Aug. 1991 until Jan. 2000. Shows growth from 0 to 2300 items submitted per month. • Have over 123,000 submissions to date • Now averaging about 2500 per month • Access statistics will show about the same growth trends as submissions

15. Cognitive Sciences Website • Bills itself as an international, interdisciplinary journal of “open peer commentary.” • Articles are refereed • If accepted, they are circulated to a large number of commentators • The commentaries are then co-published with the target article • Two features are emphasized • For authors - unedited drafts accepted for publication • For readers - free worldwide access to primary literature • Dept. of Energy - Pre-print Server • Accessing preprints located on 250 servers • Can review, search, and link to 20 other preprint databases • Documents are in the hundreds of thousands

20. Trends/Events - Government • PubMed Central • PubScience • Information policy? US and EU

21. PubMed Central • Depository of free full text in life sciences • Currently just 2 journals listed, 4 coming on • Links to PubMed • Activity at PubMed has reached 195 million searches/year, 34% are general public • Users want full text • Site includes peer reviewed material from journals, and not formerly reviewed material - indicated as such • Submissions are at the discretion of the copyright holder - a submittal fee is charged.

22. PubScience • Developed by DOE - access to peer reviewed journal literature in the physical sciences and energy related disciplines. • Searches citations and abstracts, links to participating publishers. • So far 1000 titles and 1 million DOE records

25. As I mentioned, the debate has risen - a paper by Mike Tansey on the NFAIS website articulates points of view. • Beyond the issue of the proper role of the public vs private sectors, there is the final judgement of will the marketplace be served, although certainly these public efforts reflect greater levels of service abilities, will they ultimately be market responsive, usually a task government is not well structured to do. • Speaking of market responsive, K-Mart is setting new standards…...

26. ATTENTION KMART SHOPLIFTERS: REFUNDS!Troy, Mich. — Arguing there is no such thing as "bad" consumer loyalty, Kmart yesterday unveiled a new "shoplifter returns policy,” allowing defective or unwanted stolen items to be exchanged or returned for a full refund.

27. Trends/Events - Publisher Links • Crossref • DOI-X • 22 Participating Publishers (and growing) • 3 million articles at start-up • Growing at 500,000 per year

28. CrossRef.org • New head, Dr. Pentz, formerly of Academic Press • No central control, which can be attractive, but will it be effective • Significant step forward, will resolve many issues if accepted, force other issues to the front. • Not sure of navigation and effectiveness thereof, but delighted this initative going forward • Recent NFAIS Notes shed some light on charges - membership fees, registration fees, and retrieval fees - how will these fees affect the marketability, how will they affect the desire of the publishers to maintain their material on the site? • DOI - X • Will be used as the linking mechanism • Can get full details on the CrossRef site

31. Trends/Events - Library Acquisitions • Acceptance of e-journals • Small percentage currently • Upward trend

32. Incredible Growth of Online Electronic Journals • The early network information years, i.e., 1989: fewer than 10 e-journals • Mid-1997: 3,634 e-journals & mags • 12/1/1998: 6,900 e-journals & mags • 1/3/2000: 8,400 e-journals & mags (but this number is too low) • source: NewJour online archive <http://gort.ucsd.edu/newjour>

33. Harvard North Carolina State Michigan Texas A&M ASU U Pennsylvania Johns Hopkins Duke Pittsburgh Washington U-STL U Arizona Cincinnati Penn State U Washington U North Carolina Columbia Yale Toronto, UBC E-expenditures of over $1M/year(6-15% of total budget)

34. Yale’s Growth in e-Expenditure Rate

35. Trends/Events • Digital Archives • Hackers • AOL/Time Warner • Internet - Core function - communication • WWW - Core function - publishing • Reminder, people want • Community • Simplicity

36. Digital Archives • Many sites, lots of materials, new ones appearing daily • Each has its own standards, metadata • Hackers • Unfortunate but will actually help legitimize commercial interests on the Internet • Doors will shut, reinforces that content has value, warrants protection, requires cost • AOL/Time Warner • Serves as a reminder of combining communication and content • Reflects what users want

37. Opportunities for Secondaries • More diverse source material than ever • Multiple locations of electronic info • Demand for simplification • Address post-institutional roles - individual • Currency, speed, one-stop is desired • Re-definition of value added • Supply side - Demand side - forces shifting

38. Examples • E-NICEM.COM • e-psyche

39. NICEM • Access Innovations, Inc. • Traditional Subscription Model • Secondary database • Academic libraries • 6000 suppliers • 20,000 records/year • 600,000+ backfile

40. e-NICEM.COM • Revenue based upon transactional model • Database is free to supplier/consumer • B2B e-commerce model • Infrastructure • Database, taxonomies, ordering, invoicing • Removal of friction, reduction of costs • Exploiting Internet capabilities

41. Market Opportunity • Internet - allowing infomediaries to transact • Fragmentation - no dominant suppliers • Leveraging database - drive orders • Changing buying patterns - desire one stop • Distribution costs - 66% of sales dollar • Combining communication, content, one-stop shopping

42. e-psyche • John Kuranz, Dennis Auld, Access Innovations. Inc. • Secondary model with new features • Web oriented • Citation Indexing • Emphasizing links • Data Harmony • XML - Repurpose efficiently • Machine aided indexing - reduce costs

43. Market Opportunity • Index new sources - broad coverage • Respond to user demands • Web oriented • Combine institutional and individual paths • Low cost • Links • Current

44. Retail Location, location, location

45. Secondary Publishing Links, links, links

46. “It is a secret, both in nature and state, that it is safer to change many things at once.” -- Francis Bacon, "Of Regiment of Health," Essays, 1625

47. Last year I said I was bullish • This year, with all of the changes, trends, events, I am more bullish than ever about the future of secondary publishing…… • Providing recognition of these trends causes secondary publishers to change.