ep 704 unit 6

1. EP 704Unit 6 Project Time Management

2. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-2 Revisions 2K6-X-08 Initial Creation

3. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-3 EP 704 Road Map Unit 1 Introduction to Project Management Unit 2 The Project Management Context Unit 3 Project Management Processes Unit 4 Project Integration Management Unit 5 Project Scope Management Unit 6 Project Time Management Unit 7 Project Cost Management Unit 8 Project Quality Management Unit 9 Project Human Resource Management Unit 10 Project Communications Management Unit 11 Project Risk Management Unit 12 Project Procurement Management

4. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-4 Process Time Management Here we estimate the time and sequencing of WBEs Must have the WBS done The material is presented as sequential but likely will be significant overlap In smaller projects, activity sequencing and duration and schedule development will be a single process done by the PM

5. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-5 Project Time Management Processes 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Activity Resource Estimating 6.4 Activity Duration Estimating 6.5 Schedule Development 6.6 Schedule Control

6. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-6

7. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-7

8. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-8

9. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-9 6.1 Activity Definition

10. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-10 1 Activity List Comprehensive list of all project schedule activities Includes schedule identifier and enough detail for the team to understand what to do Usd in the schedule model and the PMP AL ? WBS components

11. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-11 2 Activity Attributes Such as Activity identifier Activity codes Activity description Predecessor activities Successor activities Logical relationships Leads and lags Resource requirements Imposed dates Assumptions and constraints

12. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-12 3 Milestone List All milestones must be IDed Mandatory or optional

13. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-13 4 Requested Changes AD can generate changes

14. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-14 6.1.2 Activity Definition: T&T 1 Decomposition 2 Templates 3 Rolling Wave 4 XJ 5 Planning Component

15. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-15 Recall Simon’s Tripartite Division Level 1 – Milestones Level 2 – WBSes Level 3 – Schedule Activities

16. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-16 EHB Example Milestone – sign-off of Driver module WBS – completed requirements SA – review requirements with customer Stakeholders - ½ day 4 people

17. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-17 1 Decomposition Subdivides WPs into smaller components; called schedule activities These are schedule driven not deliverable driven

18. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-18 2 Templates Useful from previous projects Used to estimate resource skills, hours of effort, risk ID, etc

19. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-19 3 Rolling Wave Progressive elaboration Detail near-term events Leave the far-term adumbrated, to be detailed later at a more appropriate time Early on, leave far-term at the milestone level

20. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-20 4 XJ Mumble mumble

21. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-21 5 Planning Component When insufficient definition of the scope is available to decompose the WBS, leave the last node as a PC Control Account: a node to be developed further later Planning Package: subcomponent above the WP but below the CA

22. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-22 6.1.3 Activity Definitions: Outputs .1 Activity List .2 Activity Attributes .3 Milestone List .4 Requested Changes

23. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-23 1 Activity List Includes all schedule activities needed to be done on the project Includes Activity identifier Work description in enough detail to schedule and understand the work SAs are discrete units but are NOT WPs

24. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-24 2 Activity Attributes Expansion of characteristics of SAs including Activity ID Activity code Activity description Predecessor activities Successor activities Logical relationships Leads and lags Resource requirements Imposed dates Constraints Assumptions

25. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-25 3 Milestone List List of all milestones Mandatory Optional Will be part of the PMP and used for Milestone Scheduling

26. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-26 4 Requested Changes Since we are fleshing out interior details of the WPs, changes will be needed as more detail is unfolded. Fed through ICC of course.

27. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-27 6.2 Activity Sequencing

28. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-28 Modalities of Scheduling Gantt/bar charts Milestone charts Networks ADM Precedence PERT

29. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-29 Problems with Each Gantts do not show interdependencies PERTs et al are time intensive, too much detail Each is useful in their own right; not the final solution

30. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-30 Example: Gantt, Milestone, PERT

31. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-31 Network Fundamentals Shown through a diagram. Visualization of: Activity interdependence Project completion time Impact of early/late starts Trade-off analysis “what if” scenarios Cost of crashing Slippages in planning/performance Performance evaluation

32. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-32 6.2.2 Tools & Techniques 1 Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) 2 Arrow Diagramming Method (ADM) 3 Schedule Network Templates 4 Dependency Determination 5 Leads and Lags

33. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-33 1 Precedence Diagramming Method (PDM) Also called AON (activity on Node) Puts effort on the node Most common today

34. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-34 PDM (pmbok)

35. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-35 Definitions (activities on node: AON) Event is start or end of group of activities (circle) Activity is work required to move from event to event (node time)

36. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-36 Dependency Relations Finish-to-Start (must finish before next can start) Finish-to-Finish (must finish before next can finish) Start-to-Start (must start before next can start) Start-to-Finish (must start before next can finish) All of these assume 100% completion; could have a percentage

37. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-37 Network Analysis

38. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-38 Zero or 1? Note do we start at day 0 or day 1? Most folks start at 0

39. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-39 Forward Pass

40. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-40 Earliest-Latest Dates

41. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-41 Backward Pas

42. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-42 Critical Path

43. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-43 Comments Idea of Critical Path Note FP is done to estimate finish date BP is done when finish date is fixed and you want to know when to start Must be the same

44. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-44

45. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-45 2 Activity on Arrow (Arrow Diagramming Method) Event is start or end of group of activities (circle) Activity is work required to move from event to event (arrow)

46. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-46 Sources and Sinks

47. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-47 Comments Idea of Critical Path Can use optimistic, normal or pessimistic time estimates (Ro6?) Can use “dummy” variables to help in sequencing PERT for high variance CPM for low

48. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-48 Mathematical Choices Critical Path Method (CPM) Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

49. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-49 PERT/GERT/Network Analysis Basic Definitions How to Crash Critical Paths (later) Estimating ranges of completion times

50. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-50 Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique (GERT) Permits an iterative looping in the schedule (none of the others do) Uses probabilistic estimates

51. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-51 Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) Uses a weighted average like the Rule of Six Good for calculating best, expected and worse case scenarios

52. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-52 The Beta Distribution EV=(BC+4ML+WC)/6

53. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-53 Estimating the SD PERT-wise s = (WC-BC)/6 If you have many, you must add up the variances not the ss. (var = s2)

54. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-54 Example

55. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-55 Definitions Dependencies Hard – must be done first Soft – may be necessary or not (I can start high level design before all requirements are done) External – beyond PM’s control

56. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-56 Dummy Activities

57. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-57 Slack Time = time between scheduled completion date and required date (to meet CP) TE is earliest time event can take place TL is latest time ST = |TE – TL|

58. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-58 PERT with Slack Time

59. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-59 Can Refine ES = earliest start EF = earliest finish LS = latest start LF = latest finish

60. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-60 Full PERT

61. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-61 PERT with Full Slack Times

62. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-62 PERTing Along

63. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-63 How to Feedback? Transfer resources from sps to cps Eliminate activities Add more resources Use less time-consuming activities Parallelize more Shorten CP Shorten earliest activities

64. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-64 Shorten latest activities Increase number of working hours/day Use cheaper people

65. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-65 Parallelizing to Shrink Critical Paths

66. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-66 Nested PERTs

67. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-67 PERT Life Cycle 1 lay out list of activities 2 order them and add arrows 3 review with line managers 4 doers add time estimates (unlimited Res) 5 PM adds calendar dates (limitations) 6 Checks reality of calendar dates

68. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-68 Perturbation Analysis Always check if times change dramatically Primary Objectives are: Best time Least cost Least risk

69. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-69 Secondary Objectives Alternatives Optimum schedules Effective use of resources Communications Refinement of the estimating process Ease of project control Ease of time/cost revisions

70. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-70 PERT Constraints Calendar completion Cash flow Limited resources Management approvals

71. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-71 PERTs and CPMs PERTs are event-oriented Good for R&D Hard to tell percentage complete Payouts at milestones CPMs are activity-oriented % complete along lines can be done Good for well-defined activities

72. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-72 CPM best for Well-defined projects such as construction One dominant organization Relatively small risk One geographic location

73. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-73 Project Software Support Level I (Excel) Level II (MS) Level III (Artemis) Level IV (in-your-dreams) REMEMBER SOFTWARE DOESN’T MANAGE PROJECTS: PEOPLE DO

74. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-74 SW Capabilities System capacity Network schemes (AD/PRE) Calendar dates Gantt charts Flexible report generation Updating Cost control Scheduled dates Sorting Filtering Resource allocation Plotting Machine requirements Cost

75. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-75 3 Schedule Network Templates Mature organizations will have general templates to begin the work Especially if portions are repetitive. Such as floors on a high-rise, clinical trials, software module construction.

76. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-76 4 Dependency Determination (3 kinds) Mandatory Normal (see PDM 4 types) Discretionary Such as a preferred way of executing a sequence of events when there are several OK paths External Outside the PM’s control such as delivery of necessary hardware, Y2K, laws, etc

77. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-77 5 Leads and Lags Lead permits the acceleration of the successor task. Eg. Can start chapter 2 15 days before chapter 1 is complete (F2S with 15 day lead) Lags delay next task. Concrete must cure for 15 days. Therefore a F2S with a 15 day lag Leads and Lags can be negative (but why?)

78. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-78 Lag Time Suppose that B lags A by 3

79. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-79 6.3 Activity Resource Estimating

80. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-80 6.3.1 ARE Inputs EEFs Uses infrastructure resource availability as per the nature of the company OPAs Policies for staffing Rental or purchase of supplies, equipment Historical information Resource Availability In the market now? Later?

81. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-81 6.3.2 Tools and Techniques 1 Expert Judgment 2 Alternative Analysis 3 Published Estimating Data 4 PM Software 5 Bottom-up Estimation

82. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-82 1 Expert Judgment Experts in the area can tell us who we need Any group or person having area-specific knowledge use\ful here

83. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-83 2 Alternatives Analysis Make-or-buy decisions Who can do the work May be necessary to outsource some of the schedule activities Can we cannibalize other work?

84. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-84 3 Published Estimating Data There are commercially available books of production rates and unit costs for trades, material, equipment, in many countries or geographical areas

85. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-85 4 PM Software PM software can use RBSs, resource availability, resource calendars, to allocate for us

86. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-86 5 Bottom-up Estimation If we cannot estimate the needed resources, may need more decomposition into finer detail. Continue the decomposition until we can estimate and then roll back up

87. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-87 6.3.3 ARE Outputs 1 Activity Resource Requirements 2 Activity Attributes (ups) 3 Resource Breakdown Structure 4 Resource Calendars (ups) 5 Required Changes

88. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-88 1 Activity Resource Requirements IDs types and quantities of resources required for each schedule activity. Can then roll up for total for the work package Will lead to the estimation numbers in the next section

89. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-89 3 Resource Breakdown Structure Same as WBS only for RBS

90. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-90 6.4 Activity Duration Estimation

91. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-91 General This is big We take all of the preceding and roll it all up into the best time estimate that we can manage. We need to know the size of the work and the production rates to time it out

92. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-92 Other things Need to know the expected working periods Do you count weekends? Also what is the normal metric for effort? ph? pd? pm? py?

93. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-93 6.4.1 Inputs to Activity Duration Est 1 EEF 2 OPA 3 Scope Statement 4 Activity List 5 Activity Attributes 6 Activity Resource Requirements 7 Resource Calendars 8 PMP

94. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-94 1 EEF Historical data important Also when durations are not driven by the work but by things like: Curing time of concrete Time to get approvals through government agencies

95. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-95 2 OPA Recorded data from previous work important here Team effort records (sw for example, fp/m rates of individuals)

96. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-96 Historical Information Can come from the PM morgue In many engineering areas, there are tables Steel girders, for example Unions have rates Commercial databases

97. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-97 3 Scope Statement Assumptions from the Scope; reporting periods can dictate maximum schedule durations Review periods Document submittals etc.

98. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-98 6 Activity Resource Requirements Trickery trickery trickery. Will affect the schedule EG; need 2 engineers to do the design If only 1 is available, may take twice (or more likely more than twice) to complete Applying n resources will not cut the time by 1/n. In fact may increase it.

99. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-99 Resource Requirements Is it the case that the work can be paralleled? For example, two people can do the work twice as fast as one But be careful: the fallacy of linear scaling There comes a time when adding more people to the work only causes it to take longer

100. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-100 5 Resource Capabilities People do work at different rates Senior people should be faster than juniors Some areas are human-specific in coding, it has been measured, that holding all other variables constant, there can be a ten to one difference in coding rates (Weinstein, 1972)

101. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-101 8 PMP Inputs Risk Registry Risks are associated with resource availability and goodness of resources Activity Cost Estimates Can use activity cost estimates from the PMP here

102. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-102 Remember the Cops and the Donuts We need two estimates SIZE EFFORT We also want to specify the confidence levels of our numbers Rule of 6 good here

103. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-103 Risk Need to estimate the costs of risk High risk means higher costs because of the risk oversight and possible mitigation

104. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-104 6.3.2 T&T for Activity Duration Est 0 Introduction to Estimation 1 Expert Judgment 2 Analogous estimates 3 Parametric Estimating 4 Three-Point Estimates 5 Reserve Analysis (contingency)

105. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-105 0 Estimating in General General Idea Rules of Thumbs and SWAGs

106. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-106 General Principles of Estimation General Principles Pitfalls of Estimation General Volumetrics

107. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-107 General Estimating Estimates are just that! Example: how long does it take you to drive to work?

108. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-108 Distributions How measurements might be distributed Plot the length of 100 meter sticks Plot the Julian birthday of every Canadian (JBD is the day of the year tat you were born. Jan01=1 and Dec 31=365)

109. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-109 The Normal Distribution

110. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-110 Normal Distribution

111. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-111 Six-Sigma One and two tailed estimates Ours are normally one-tailed 2? is 99% 3? is 99.9% 4? is 99.99% 5? is 99.999% 6? is 3 part in a million (99.9999)

112. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-112 Question? You have a 2400 square foot house and you order your cleaner to clean it to within 6?. What is the size of the largest piece of dirt? A thimble? A teacup? A saucer? A bathroom?

113. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-113 General Estimating cont. normally, use the average the (1+4+1) / 6 is good be realistic (factor in time of year)

114. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-114 Rules of Thumbs My Uncle's example The Rule of 3 The Back of the Envelope

115. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-115 The Rule of 3 3 people in my house 30 close neighbours 300 on my jogging route 3000 in my school draw 30000 in my ward 300,000 in London 3,000,000 in Ontario-Toronto 30,000,000 in Canada 300,000,000 in NA (- Mexico) 3,000,000,000 "consumers" in the world

116. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-116 Rules of Thumbs (jon bentley) How much water flows out of the Mississippi River in one day (cu miles)?

117. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-117 Rule of 72 Exponential are difficult Most of our problems ARE expos If you invest a sum that must double in y years at an interest rate of r percent/yr then r*y = 72 holds. (RULE OF 72) Example, how long will it take for $1,000 to double at 6%? 72/6=12 years ($2012)

118. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-118 Example A program takes 10 seconds for size n=40 Increasing n by 1 increases time by 12% (expo) Rule-of-72 says RT doubles when n increases by 6 By 60, then 1,000 By 160, 107 seconds

119. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-119 Help Ma! How BIG is 107 anyway? Actually dear, 3.155x107 seconds in a year Or ? seconds in a nanocentury 264 = 100,000,000 donuts/sec for 5,000 years

120. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-120 The Delphi Approach No clear way to estimate Gather a group of Xperts Give them the problem; they go away and independently estimate as well as they can They meet and exchange information Then they repeat the above After 3-4 cycles they will normally converge on a unified answer

121. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-121 A Little Quiz (thanks Jon)(give 1+4+1 confidence limits) Canadian population Jan 1,2004 Year of Napolean's birth Length of the Great Lakes/St Lawrence watershed Maximum takeoff weight of a 747 (pds) Mass of the earth Number of Fathers of Confederation

122. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-122 Latitude of London England Number of airplanes in the air at this minute Number of PCs in Canada Number of bones in the adult human

123. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-123 General Estimating cont. make sure you have a complete SOW work out the WBS completely hand off to the person responsible to estimate and cost collect them in the PP note that you do this at EACH of the three levels of report generation

124. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-124 Things to Avoid warm fuzzies too-new technologies biggies too-optimistic estimates LINEARITY

125. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-125 Linear Scaling 1 person can do the work in 8 days 2 can do it in 4 4 can do it in 2 8 can do it in 1 16 can do it in ½ a day 32 in a ¼ 64 in an hour etc etc

126. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-126 Examples How many kilometers per year does a taxi driver drive if he works an 8 hours day 200 days a year?

127. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-127 Conclusions, Crystal Balling It Works! can easily tailor the tool to the organization’s process and culture can instrument to collect metrics can do the EV easily can prompt the user for missing steps can archive for the Morgue can collect quality metrics

128. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-128 1 Expert Judgment Remember my definition of xpert

129. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-129 2 Analogous Estimates Compares against work already done Is really a form of expert judgment Are most reliable when Previously done activities are very similar Experts really know the area

130. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-130 3 Parametric Estimating When we know the rates For example, function points and the Industrial Averages

131. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-131 4 Three-Point Estimates Most likely Optimistic Pessimistic Useful for worst-case, best-case scenarios Rule-of-Six gives better estimates

132. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-132 4 Reserve Analysis (contingency) Buffer in case of risky activities Need to annotate the reasons for asking for one Known-unknowns (contingency) Unknown-unknowns (management reserves)

133. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-133 6.4.3 Outputs for Activity Duration Est 1 Activity duration estimates 2 Bases of estimates 3 Activity lists updates

134. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-134 1 Activity Duration Estimates Need also to list the confidence levels of the estimates Prob or SD good here

135. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-135 6.5 Schedule Development

136. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-136 Inputs from OPAs Project calendar may dictate days when no work can be done. Shifts may be constrained

137. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-137 Input from Scope Statement PSS can contain assumptions and constraints that affect schedule development; two main types 1 Internally imposed dates Agreed-upon contract dates Weather restrictions Governmental mandated compliance dates “Start no earlier than” and “Finish no later than” most commonly used 2 Externally imposed dates Stakeholders can dictate important dates Milestones hat connect to external projects

138. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-138 7 Calendars These show when resources and the project are available for work assignment Resources have vacations, religious holidays etc A labour contract may limit the days of the week a person can work

139. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-139 6.4.2 T&T for Schedule Development 1 Schedule Network Analysis 2 Critical Path Method 3 Schedule Compression 4 What-if Analysis 5 Resource Leveling 6 Critical Chain Method 7 PM Software 8 Applying Calendars 9 Adjusting Leads & Lags 10 Schedule Model

140. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-140 1 Schedule Network Analysis This generates the project schedule Uses the following techniques Checks for loop or open ends

141. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-141 2 Critical Path Method Uses the earliest start and finish dates and the late start and finish dates without any regard to resource limitations Worries about float Does a forward pass and a backward pass Uses a single estimate for each activity Leads to a Critical Path and a deterministic schedule

142. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-142 Types of Float Free Float – time a task can be delayed without delaying the early start date of its successor Total Float - time a task can be delayed without delaying the project completion date Project Float - time the project can be delayed without delaying the externally imposed project completion date (by customer, management, project manager etc.)

143. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-143 Passes To compute the likely finish time plus critical path(s) Forward pass Start at the beginning Backward pass Start at the customer’s wanted finish date and work backwards Can have negative float!

144. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-144 Two ways to compress without descoping Crashing Fast-tracking 3 Schedule Compression

145. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-145 Crashing Try to compute the CP Work out the cost per week to crash Start with lowest

146. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-146 Crashing with CPM

147. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-147 Crash Data

148. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-148 Crash details Normal time Crash time Note; follows U-curve CT is most compressed time Compute (CC-NC)/(NT-CT)

149. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-149 Crashing Try to compute the CP Work out the cost per week to crash Start with lowest

150. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-150 Crashing Problems May not be possible Will INCREASE costs for sure Assumes that you can take people off one task and add them to another (true in construction for example; may well NOT be true in IT!)

151. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-151 Fast Tracking Do CP tasks that were planned in series, in parallel Problems: Often forces rework Increases risk Requires more communications May cost more (need new people)

152. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-152 4 What-if Scenario Analysis As seen Often uses Monte Carlo techniques to check out worst-case, best-case, random-case examples

153. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-153 5 Resource Leveling Critical path may over-allocate resources Necessary to “level” them An option in MSP

154. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-154 Resource Loading and Leveling Resource loading: amount of individual resources an existing project schedule requires during specific time periods Resource histograms show resource loading Over-allocation means more resources than are available are assigned to perform work at a given time

155. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-155 Resource Leveling Resource leveling is technique for resolving resource conflicts by delaying tasks Primary purpose of resource leveling: create a smoother distribution of resource usage & reduce over-allocation

156. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-156 Resource Histogram for Large IT Project

157. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-157 Histogram Showing an Over allocated Individual

158. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-158 Resource Leveling Example

159. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-159 6 Critical Chain A better way Each activity has a mean of execution time, not a constant CC says, start as soon as you finish Suppose A ? B, A = 4±2, B=6±3 CMP says B starts on Day 5, regardless CC says, start on Day 3 if lucky

160. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-160 CC comments Idea is to take advantage of early finishes What tends to happen in Anal Orgs is that the start date of each task is fixed When CP task slips, whole project time slips When it is early, people go fishing until the specified start date of the next task CC starts ASAP and averages out under runs and overruns

161. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-161 7 PM Software Can be used to do the preceding techniques Can print out nice diagrams of the schedules Can compress/expand as needed

162. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-162 8 Applying Calendars Used to cover weather events etc. as seen Can be used for scenarios such as Only regular hours allocated Two shifts 7x24 shifts

163. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-163 9 Adjusting Leads & Lags Can be modified in the simulation to see how sensitive the schedule is to adjusting leads and lags

164. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-164 10 Schedule Model This is the final sign-offed product that will be used for the duration of the project Very important for ICC to check the effects of changes in scope, requirements

165. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-165 Coding Structure Activities should have a code (database?) so that you can sort/extract on different attributes of the activities such as Responsibility Geographic area Building Project phase Schedule level WBS classification

166. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-166 6.5.3 Outputs from Schedule Development 1 Project Schedule 2 Schedule Model Data 3 Schedule Baseline 4 Resources Requirements (ups) 5 Activity Attributes (ups) 6 Project Calendars (ups) 7 Required Changes 8 PMP (ups)

167. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-167 1 Project Schedule Includes at least a start and end date for every schedule activity Normally presented graphically Network Diagram Bar (Gannt) charts Milestone charts

168. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-168 2 Schedule Model Data Supporting data for all activity attributes, all schedule activities, all assumptions and constraints Also may include Resource requirements by time period Alternative schedules (best, worse) Schedule contingency reserves

169. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-169 3 Schedule Baseline This is the approved-by-management schedule for tracking purposes

170. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-170 6.6 Schedule Control This must do 3 things Ensure that changes are agreed on Determine that the schedule has changed Managing the changes when they occur Is another example of change control and if it is integrated properly, can be rolled up into it

171. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-171 Schedule Control

172. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-172 6.5.1 Inputs to Schedule Control 1 Schedule Management Plan 2 Schedule Baseline 3 Performance Reports 4 Approved Change Requests

173. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-173 3 Performance Reports These flow out of communications Indicate when we are falling behind and signal the need for change

174. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-174 4 Approved Change Requests Once an item has been baselined, it is put under CCM Should be a form which is filled out and this, when approved by the CCB, is put into the Schedule Control process

175. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-175 6.5.2 T&T for Schedule Control 1 Progress Reporting 2 Schedule CC System 3 Performance Measurement 5 PM Software 6 Variance Analysis 7 Schedule Bar Charts

176. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-176 1 Progress Reporting Records actual start and finish dates (as opposed to planned) Has all EV measurements Should be in an org-wide template form

177. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-177 2 Schedule Change Control System Formal procedure by which we do the changes See unit 4. Is a very important case of CCM Is isolated here to stress its importance Necessary approvals here important

178. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-178 3 Performance Management Need to understand the metrics of PM and assess if change is needed immediately or can it wait? If the activity is on the CP, do it now If off the CP, could wait a bit

179. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-179 4 PM Software Lets us know when corrective action is necessary Could be a push technology (here be dragons!)

180. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-180 5 Variance Analysis Critical for the EV portion of time Float is key here Need to sort sub-critical paths in terms of increasing float

181. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-181 6 Schedule Comparison Bar Charts Also called “double Gantting” Two bars; one the actuals, one the planned. Is another way to track progress. Note the fallacy compared with EVM

182. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-182 6.5.3 Outputs from Schedule Control 1 Schedule Model (ups) 2 Schedule Baseline (ups) 3 Performance Measurements 4 Required Changes 5 Required Corrects 6 OPA (ups) 7 Activity List (ups) 8 PMP (ups) 9 Activity Attributes (ups)

183. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-183 1 Schedule Model Updates Any modification to the schedule Must notify stakeholders May trigger updates to other parts of the PMP

184. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-184 Schedule Baseline Revisions These are changes to the project’s start and finish date Are major May require rebaselining (a Baaaad thing) Rebaselining is a Last Resort

185. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-185 5 Corrective Action Anything done to bring future performance in line with the planned estimates Often involves expediting Need to do a root cause analysis to avoid future deviations

186. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-186 6 OPA Updates (Lessons Learned) REALLY important “Those who ignore the failure lessons of history are doomed to repeat them” G. Santayana

187. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-187 Chapter Six: Time Management 2000 Edition 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Activity Duration Estimating 6.4 Schedule Development 6.5 Schedule Control Third Edition 6.1 Activity Definition 6.2 Activity Sequencing 6.3 Activity Resource Estimating 6.4 Activity Duration Estimating 6.5 Schedule Development 6.6 Schedule Control

188. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-188 Case Study: Panama Canal (french) Experts recommended A sea-level canal (like Suez) Reducing TL from 12 to 8 years Reducing cost from $240M to $169M Reducing the contingency from 25% to 10% (ignored cost of capital, cost of purchasing Panamanian railroad, administrative costs) Estimators doubled the anticipated excavation volume by 100% (while doing the cost reduction)

189. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-189 De Lesseps goes to Panama Spent 1 week there Reduced the cost estimate to $132M Discounted the deadly climate as “an invention of adversaries”

190. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-190 The Result: 20,000 Frenchmen died Spent $287M for little work Estimates were based on what they could SELL to the investors, not the actual cost Philosophy: “get her started” and we’ll figure out something later Big Dig!

191. 2K6-X-08 Dr. J.M. Bennett, P.Eng., PMP EP 704 6-191 WBS Structures the Project Network