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If It Ain t a Mess

PDCF. Discount Window. September 12. September 19. Dow Jones. 11422. 11391. 6-Month Treasury. 1.55%. 1.51%. 10-Year Treasury. 3.72%. 3.75%. ABX 06-02 AAA. 148.5. 150. Source: Kevin Dehler, HSBC Securities. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the last big surviving investment banks on Wall Street, have become regulated banks..

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If It Ain t a Mess

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    1. If It Ain’t a Mess… Remarks prepared for the Louisiana Association of Public Employees’ Retirement Systems Conference New Orleans, Louisiana September 23, 2008

    12.

    18. RECESSION? “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, employment, income, industrial production, and sales”

    20. Industrial Production

    21. Personal Income less Transfers

    22. Personal Consumption Expenditures

    23. Total Business Sales Source: Census Bureau

    24. Retail Sales

    26. First Ingredient: The Housing Market

    28. Housing Starts

    29. Second Ingredient: Credit Markets

    30. House Prices

    33. From the Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey: Q3

    34. Third Ingredient: Energy

    35. Crude Oil Price

    36. Don’t look for the pony.

    37. Scooby Do Forecast*

    38. If It Ain’t a Mess…

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