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Climate Change in the Middle East: Complex Causes and Effects. Climate Change Predictions for MENA. Higher temperatures (1-2 degree rise by 2050) Reduced or steady (low) precipitation Increased incidence of drought, heat waves
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Climate Change in the Middle East: Complex Causes and Effects
Climate Change Predictions for MENA • Higher temperatures (1-2 degree rise by 2050) • Reduced or steady (low) precipitation • Increased incidence of drought, heat waves • Reduced surface water; increased stress on already depleted groundwater reserves • Sea level rise of .5 meter by 2100 • Reduction in agricultural output • Relatively low carbon emissions--focus on adaptation • Challenge for hydroelectric generation and irrigation
In an already arid region, climate change will • reduce agricultural productivity through desertification and drought, increased soil salinity, inability to irrigate • increase stress on urban populations and their access to safe water, • inundate many coastal areas, forcing population relocation and further reducing agricultural output
Water is: • Geography: • climate change • Middle Eastern aridity • localized adaptation
Water is: • Science: • new desalinization techniques • Adaptation of new plants tolerant of higher salinity • traditional water gathering/storing/transporting • Newly discovered aquifers in the desert, etc. • New health challenges and disease vectors
Water is: • Economics: • Agriculture • Hydroelectric projects • Fisheries • Transportation • Urbanization • Tourism • Restrictions on development
Water is: • Politics • legitimacy for govts (GAP, Libya pipeline, agriculture in Israel, Jordan river/Golan) • Food shortages/riots • Inequities in water use/access • disputes over river flows and water sovereignty (Tigris/Euphrates, bargaining chip in other issues) • Exacerbation of conflict between neighbors (Israel/Palestine, Israel/Jordan, Turkey/Iraq) • international challenge: how do we solve regional issues with global implications?
Water is: • Society: • food riots in Egypt, • urban centers with too little water, • health problems from contaminated water due to reduced river flows, • new environmentalist civil society vs. new aspirations
Water is: • Culture: • marsh Arabs, • Bedouin, • urbanization, • changing sustenance farming and fishing villages • disruption of traditional water-sharing mechanisms