The Impact of Global Warming on Western Australia a presentation for CWA, 25 July 2007

1. The Impact of Global Warming on Western Australiaa presentation for CWA, 25 July 2007 Dr Ray Wills Manager, Sustainability Services, SMEC Chair, WA Sustainable Energy Association Adjunct Senior Research Fellow School of Earth and Geographical Sciences, The University of Western Australia

2. A changing climate for business and the community • The science is in, the globe is warming, and we must both mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and rapidly prepare for adaptation to climate change. • A raft of immediately accessible and affordable solutions to reduce greenhouse emissions and provide alternative sources of energy are already in our possession - we can act today. • Some businesses and members of the community are understandably nervous about the economic ramifications of measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in part because not enough work has been done to assist them understand these issues.

3. Sustainability in a changing climate for business and the community • McDonald's Corp. is blogging on the environment. • Starbucks Corp. has a green-themed online game. • Hilton Hotels Corp. linked manager pay to green outcomes. • All corporates say they have worked for years or even decades on pro-environment strategies and corporate social responsibility, but growing awareness of global warming among consumers is changing the way they work. • Businesses in green buildings report improved productivity, better staff retention, fewer sick days, millions of dollars in energy savings and a reduced environmental footprint. • California Governor Schwarzenegger and New York City mayor Bloomberg: The New Action Heroes doing the things that gridlocked Washington won't.

4. Greenhouse and global warming • Greenhouse theory • Basis first proposed by Joseph Fourier in 1824 • Quantified by Svante Arrhenius in 1896 • Greenhouse of earth’s “blanket” - average earth temperature about 15°C; otherwise would be -18°C • Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960’s • Debate late 1970’s, Rio 1992, Kyoto … • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1988 • Warming of climate is now unequivocal – global increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level. • The enhanced greenhouse effect is empirically and theoretically well-established.

5. Historical global temperatures

6. Drivers of climate change • Solar forcing and the Milankovitch mechanism can influence environmental change and global climates. • Variability in the electromagnetic and particulate output of the Sun can cause changes in the Earth's upper atmosphere. • Milankovitch cycles - the orbit of the earth has a number of pronounced and predictable perturbations

7. Drivers of climate change • Plate tectonics

8. Drivers of climate change • Volcanic activity and meteor impacts cause physical and/or chemical changes in the atmosphere and induce global changes in climate.

9. Drivers of climate change

10. Measuring change • Many methods that deliver proxy data on environmental change, and techniques for dating and comparing records - here are a few: • Geomorphological and geological indications of climate change • Biological growth rates - Coral, tree rings • Accumulation rates • Ice - physical properties (thickness, crystals for temperature), particulates, ECM, gases, isotopes - (volcanoes and pollution). • non-ice proxies, including sediments

11. Geological evidence • Late Cretaceous global climate warmer than present. • No ice at the Poles. • Dinosaurs migrated between the Warm Temperate and Cool Temperate Zones as the seasons changed. • http://www.scotese.com/lcretcli.htm

12. History of world temperature • Late Carboniferous to Early Permian (315 mya -- 270 mya) is the only time period in the last 600 million years when both atmospheric CO2 and temperatures were as low as they are today (Quaternary Period ). http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Carboniferous_climate.html

13. Industrial Era Aust. Aboriginal Settlement Early Hominids Homo sapiens Settled Agriculture (Euphrates) Out of Eden

14. Greenhouse gases Since 1751 roughly 305 billion tonnes of carbon released Half of emissions have occurred since mid 1970s

15. Instrumental Record - Temperature

16. Instrumental Record - temperature • Satellites have been measuring the temperature of the troposphere since 1979. • Better data - real average • Best data late 1980s • Best computers 1998

17. Evidence of global warming

18. Sea level changes

19. About WA • Spatial variationsin sea level

20. Instrumental record - temperature

21. IPCC Assessment Report 4

22. Temperature

23. About WA • WA is arguably the first Western economy with measurable economic impact through climate change

24. About WA • Annual inflow to Perth’s surface water sources dropped from 338 GL to 114 GL • Source: Water Corporation 2006.

25. About WA • WA is arguably the first Western economy with measurable economic impact through climate change • WA SW has already suffered a 20% decline in rainfall in the last 30 years - effects on runoff more serious with 50% drop in steam flow to reservoirs - and a further 20% reduction predicted, and this is thought to have already started at the end of the 1990s. • Value of lost income in water sales in dams is estimated at $1 billion in WA through water restrictions and additions to infrastructure (WaterCorp) - and almost another billion with Desal II.

26. About WA • A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about 150 km south - thus a regional change of temperature of 2 °C is likely to have a serious impact on most life forms, and on most ecosystems and agricultural areas. Changes by 2040

27. About WA • With global warming and drying of the south coast in WA, areas with temperature increases > 2° C combined with a decline in rainfall consistently below 400 mm will lead to the loss of many species of Proteaceae in WA's SW - including theiconic Banksiaand Dryandra, - will die out. • As will the animals that live on them.

28. About WA • Climate is a key determinant of agriculture and changes in climate will impact on all agriculture - both crops and livestock. • Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst, shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates, lower crop quality. • Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously impacted and northern wheatbelt likely to disappear while production in the remainder greatly reduced, wiping out most of an industry worth more than $2 billion.

29. About WA • Tree crops are particularly sensitive because of longer lead times to reach production. • Changes to stone fruit also be impacted as fruit production requires chilling to create bud set. • Dairy and beef cattle industry will face decreased pasture production. • Honey industry will face impact as native ecosystems and agricultural systems change, with honey production on the decline.

30. About WA • Climate is a key influence in grape selection. • Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the way vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop. • WA produces around 5% of all Australian wine, but produces about 25% of wine in super-premium and ultra-premium categories. • Margaret River climate will be closer to that of Perth, cabernet sauvignon and chardonnay will be lost and varieties suited to warmer climates such as shiraz. • Swan Valley will no longer be suitable for vines.

31. About WA • Sea levels up 18.5 cm in last century • Predictions this will at least triple (more than 48 cm) over the next ninety years. • Potential for 40 cm rise by 2040 and 1 metre sea level rise by end of this century - not an extreme estimate - within the bounds of scientifically-based predictions, including latest CSIRO models.

32. Sea level changes Mandurah at 1m sea level rise Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association

33. Sea level changes Mandurah at 7m sea level rise Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association

34. Sea level changes

35. About WA • Coastal freshwater swamps will go saline. • Fringing reefs currently a barrier protecting parts of Perth’s coastline will be further submerged offering less protection and allowing bigger waves passage to previously sheltered beaches.

36. About WA • The Indian Ocean has warmed an average 0.6°C since 1960 - only another 0.4°C is needed for widespread and intense coral bleaching. The largest warming occurred off Northwest WA. • Bleaching of coral from higher ocean temperatures will kill parts of the Ningaloo Reef just as the Great Barrier Reef.

37. About WA • Other WA impacts will be the same as around the world • Sea level rise and storm surge • Temperature – minimum rise faster than maximum • Changing rainfall and extreme storm events • Health and safety • Emergency response function • National security • Global warming will act as a ‘threat multiplier’ • International security

38. Global changes http://www.igbp.kva.se//uploads/ESO_IGBP4.pdf

39. Economic risk of change Climate Risk Sector Level Physical Risk Political / Regulatory Supply Chain Company Level Staff Litigation Reputation / Brand Products / Technology

40. Litigation • Negligence is common law – if you have knowledge that something is at risk and fail to act, you are negligent.

41. Portfolio of technology options • Improved end-use efficiency • Higher efficiency combustion technologies • Fuel switching • New automotive technologies • Decentralized power generation • Affordable renewable technologies • Wind • Solar thermal • Solar photovoltaic • Geothermal • Tidal and waves • Capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide from power plants or the atmosphere Source: Graeme Pearman - GP Consulting

42. About WA We will need • new crops, new cropping systems • new fuels (grow your own), new technology • people willing to change and innovate • If we were raising kangaroos instead of cattle we would have lower methane emissions and a more drought tolerant stock.

43. To market, to market • State and Territory Governments - in absence of Australian Government - have agreed to a national emissions trading scheme (NETS) to be initiated by 2010. • Federal Labor opposition have indicated they will join if they win office. • PM Howard has stated an emissions trading scheme to be implemented Federally before 2012 – comparable but more broadly based than State proposal. • Establishing certified carbon certificates for trading.

44. To market, to market • Carbon emissions trading markets will be part of the inevitable response to attempting to slow global warming and carbon will become the single largest traded commodity in the world. • The price of carbon will impact on energy production and will make a range of different renewable energy projects immediately commercially viable. • The future of energy in Australia and for the globe is an array of sustainable energy solutions incorporating low or zero emissions energy generation in whatever form that ultimately proves most economically competitive.

45. The latest news • http://www.theage.com.au/news/tim-colebatch/the-european-solution/2006/10/23/1161455660470.html#

46. Greenhouse gases

47. Greenhouse gases • CO2 emission per capita per year per country

48. The latest news • New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger photographed together for Time. • http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1632736,00.html

49. Responding to climate change • The challenge of climate change should be the catalyst for changing the way we think about and plan infrastructure, changing the way we use energy and in so doing, future proofing our economy. • A key element of managing this change is an integrated, whole-of-government approach to tackle the enormous challenge that global warming poses to Australia and the world. • Governments must put frameworks in place that take an integrated approach to develop significant, forward-thinking initiatives and create budgets that promote energy efficiency across government, business and the community.

50. Responding to climate change ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA • 1367.5 • JUN 2007