Hurricane Readiness Timeline Tools Paul Hastings ImpactWeather, Inc. (877)792-3225 phastings@impactweather

1. Hurricane Readiness Timeline Tools Paul Hastings ImpactWeather, Inc. (877)792-3225 phastings@impactweather.com

2. Two Basic Strategies of Hurricane Plans: Maintain Continuity of Operations Provide for an orderly, safe, and appropriate shut-in of operations

3. Characteristics of most successful hurricane plans: Most utilize a phased escalation process Complexity and costs increase with escalation Designed and driven by risk management mindset

4. ImpactWeather 8-Phase Hurricane Preparedness Plan

5. Strategic Question: How to objectively trigger escalation from one Phase to the next?

6. New TropicsWatch tools for 2006 that can serve as communications tools & escalation triggers: HRI – Hurricane Risk Indicator WCS – Worst Case Scenario HSI – Hurricane Severity Index PWI – Probability of Wind Impact

7. Hurricane Risk Indicator • Alerts you to a possible hurricane threat at your location (within next 6 to 10 days) • Uses a simple on/off indicator • Early warning • For storms before they develop • For storms that will take more than 5 days to reach your area

8. When is the earliest tropical storm force winds could arrive? Allows you to see how much time you have for different phases of preparation / shutdown Assumes by default: storm movement is directly toward your location Forward speed = maximum forecasted Intensity = maximum forecasted Wind Field Size = maximum quadrant applied to all quadrants Worst Case Scenario

9. Worst Case Scenario – Graphical Output Arrival times for 25, 39, 58, 74, 100 mph, max winds, and center of storm

10. What Was Katrina’s Saffir-Simpson Classification at Landfall? Category 3 Hurricane Katrina 3:15PM CDT Sun. Aug. 28

11. HSI – Hurricane Severity Index Useful in timeline scenarios for factoring in the response by the community to a hurricane threat

12. Hurricane Severity Index (HSI) A new way for classifying hurricanes that takes into consideration more than just maximum surface winds: • Size (1-25 points) • Examines the total coverage of the 35+, 50+, 65+, and 87+ knot wind fields • Intensity (1-25 points) • Points assigned using the exponential relationship between wind speed and the force exerted on an object The Result: A 50-point scale that better represents a tropical cyclone’s true destructive potential – the Hurricane Severity Index (HSI) Developed by:Chris Hebert and Bob Weinzapfel

13. Severe DamageLarge Area Saffir-Simpson Category MinimalDamageSmall Area

14. Hurricane Severity Index (HSI)

15. Same Intensity Saffir-Simpson Category

16. PWI – Probability of Wind Impact PWI displays the probability of a given location receiving a certain threshold of wind. Probabilities are generated for 5 wind fields: 25 mph 39 mph 58 mph 74 mph 100 mph

17. Gaussian or “Normal” Distribution Curve 50% 50% Forecast Track in Center 75% Cone Area

18. 72 Hours From LandfallConfidence Average / Larger Cone74 mph Wind Radius Indicated

19. 48 Hours From LandfallConfidence High / Smaller Cone74 mph Wind Radius Unchanged

21. Probability of Wind Impact – Corpus Christi, TX Rita - Advisory 24 - Valid Fri, Sep 23 9PM CDT - hours before landfall

22. Probability of Wind Impact – Port Arthur, TX Rita - Advisory 24 - Valid Fri, Sep 23 9PM CDT - hours before landfall

24. 1995 - 2005 185 NS / 90 H / 45 IH / 6 Cat 5

25. Questions? Paul Hastings ImpactWeather, Inc. (877)792-3225 phastings@impactweather.com