Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather

2. 2012 Spring Weather Outlook March Update Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.

3. Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 • Seasonal outlook forecasting • Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification • Offshore/marine forecasting year-round • Customized weather websites • Direct consultation with a meteorologist • Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: fschmude@impactweather.com More information(877) 792-3220 sales@impactweather.com

4. Spring Weather Outlook for 2012 • Worldwide water temperature trends (including El Niño and La Niña risks) • January and February Review • Tornado impacts during February & March...Why so many? • Projected March Flow pattern and predicted analog seasons • March weekly and monthly forecast (most vulnerable severe risk areas) • April & May T/P forecast (identify most vulnerable severe risk areas) • Analog tornado impact areas • Soil moisture and drought outlooks for the spring

7. Developing El Niño? Warm Phase

8. PDO Cold Phase Weakening Developing El Niño? Warm Phase

9. PDO Cold Phase Weakening Developing El Niño? Warm Phase

10. PDO Cold Phase Weakening Stronger Easterly Trade Winds Create Enhanced Upwelling Of Cooler Water From Below Developing El Niño? Warm Phase

11. El Niño La Niña

12. El Niño La Niña Current (~-0.6C)

13. Forecast El Niño La Niña Current (~-0.6C)

14. El Niño La Niña

15. El Niño La Niña

16. El Niño La Niña

17. Forecast ENSO Trends • Initiation of EL Niño by June/July • Likely to peak out in the early part of 2013 • Likely to be weak based on cold phase of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and projected IOD (Indian Ocean Di-Pole) patterns forecast for the summer and fall

18. FORECASTS

19. Mean Flow Pattern For January-February, 2012 L L Lower Than Normal Pressure Storm Track H H Higher Than Normal Pressure H

20. Mean Flow Pattern For January-February, 2012 Bitter Cold Milder Pacific Air Storm Track +6-10F Milder Pacific Air H Compressional Warming H Milder Pacific Air

21. Tornado Reports During February & Early March, 2012 Why So Many Tornados? 3/2 -3/3 2/29 2/28 2/24 2/18

22. Prime Causes for February and early March Tornados Combination creates high wind shear (i.e. rapid change of wind direction and speed with height!) Causes developing thunderstorms to rotate and produce tornados Fast SW 5,000’ Winds Strong SE Surface Winds Warmer Than Normal

23. Projected Flow Pattern For March, 2012 L H H • BASED ON: • Analog season support (1999, 2000) • Recent Weather trends • Water temperature profiles

24. MARCH FORECASTS

25. Weather Trends for the 2nd week of March, 2012 Mostly Dry +10 to +15F UNSETTLED10th-14th Warmer Than Normal +6 to +10F UNSETTLED8th, 11th-12th -1 to -3F Near Normal +6 to +10F Cooler Than Normal SNOW8th – 9th 8th-12th STORMY +3 to +6F Mostly Dry STORMY -2 to -4F FLASH FLOODING RISK -4 to -8F +6 to +10F Occasional Showers STORMY +3 to +6F

27. Potential Powerful Squall Line Noon Thu 6pm Thu 12am Fri 6am Fri

28. Weather Trends for the 3rd week of March, 2012 UNSETTLED UNSETTLED Mostly Dry Warmer Than Normal STORMY Cooler Than Normal MORE HEAVY RAIN Mostly Dry Warmer Than Normal STORMY Near Normal

29. Projected Temperature Outlook for March, 2012

30. Projected Precipitation Outlook for March, 2012 Elevated Flood Risk

31. Projected Precipitation Outlook for March, 2012 Elevated Severe Risk

32. Projected Flow Pattern For April-May, 2012 L COOLER H L WARMER H

33. Projected Temperature Outlook for April & May, 2012 Cooler Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Near Normal Near Normal +1 to +3F -1 to -3F +1 to +3F +1 to +3F Warmer Than Normal Near Normal +1 to +3F

34. Projected Precipitation Outlook for April & May, 2012 Near Normal Near Normal Elevated Severe Risk Above Normal Above Normal Near Normal Near Normal Below Normal Below Normal

35. Spring Tornado Outbreak During Analog Seasons (1999,2000) May, 2000 April 1999 4 deaths May 1999 50 deaths; ~1.9 Billion April 2000 1 death April 2000 March 2000 2 deaths Feb 2000 19 deaths April 1999

36. Spring Tornado Outbreak During Analog Seasons (1999,2000)

37. Spring Tornado Outbreak During Analog Seasons (1999,2000) POTENTIAL HIGHER RISK AREA

38. Projected Temperature Outlook for Summer, 2012

39. Projected Precipitation Outlook for Summer, 2012

40. Moderate Drought (tan) Abnormally Dry (yellow) Severe Drought (red) Exceptional Drought (dark red)

42. 0 to 800 scale depicting soil moisture capacity 0 to 200 = 75 to 100% of capacity...MOIST 200 to 400 = 50 to 75% 400 to 600 = 25 to 50% 600 to 800 = 0 to 25%...DRY MOIST DRY Elevated Flood Risk DRY DRY

43. Questions

45. Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 • Seasonal outlook forecasting • Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification • Offshore/marine forecasting year-round • Customized weather websites • Direct consultation with a meteorologist • Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: fschmude@impactweather.com More information(877) 792-3220 sales@impactweather.com