JDP 3-40 Security & Stabilisation: The Military Contribution Presentation by Lieutenant Colonel Alasdair Balgarni

2. JDP 3-40Security & Stabilisation: The Military ContributionPresentation by Lieutenant Colonel Alasdair Balgarnie Team Leader JDP 3-40 Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre

5. Recent Headlines • “Overstretched, overwhelmed and over there.” • “Britain's armed forces, losing their way?” The Economist, 29 Jan 09 • “Overstretch pushes British troops to the brink” Daily Telegraph, 11 Jan 09 • “Why did it all go wrong. Re-assessing British COIN in Iraq.” Strategic Studies Quarterly, Winter 2008 • “Blair’s Wars and Brown’s Budgets: from Strategic Defence Review to Strategic Decay in less than a decade.” International Affairs, Spring 09

6. Emerging Concepts & Doctrine

7. …Failed / Fragile States …Shifting Demographics …Climate Change …Uncertain Natural Resource Availability …Weapons of Mass Destruction A US Army View In line with DCDC Strategic Trends Drivers Towards InstabilityDriven by Six Mega Trends …Globalization Arctic sea ice melted by 2040 … Desertification at 70,000Km2/yr … 1.4B confront environmental fragility Top 1% of world population owns 40% of wealth …Interconnected world economies and opportunities …The ‘have-nots’ know it 60% will live in urban areas by 2030 … Africa, Middle East, Central Africa have 40-50% Youth Bulge Account for 77% of conflict … Fragile states have 4 times terror problems … 28 of 51 African states high risk ~25 nations possess, stockpile or develop … 3770 tons of enriched uranium … al Qaeda religious duty World food cost up 45%, shortages of rice, wheat & maize … triple digit oil prices … 450M face severe water shortage

8. Spectrum of Conflict View Counter Irregular Activity Peacetime Military Engagement Peace Support Operations Limited Intervention Major Combat Level of violence

9. Operational Theme Increasing Level of Violence

12. Elements of a Stable State

13. Fragile States – Downward Spiral

14. Instability – The Problem

15. Stabilisation – The Solution

16. Stabilisation & COIN

18. Graduated Military Commitment

20. LWC Tactical Doctrine How does 3-40 fit in ? Joint Ops Project

21. Land Tactical Publications

22. JDP 3-40 Allies OGDs LWC Tactical Doctrine How does 3-40 fit in ? Joint Ops Project

23. stabilising fragile or failed states, determining the nature, level, principles and priorities that govern the UK military contribution and the principles governing transitions to civilian and host nation control JDP 3-40 sets out the Operational Art for:

24. Terminology Stabilisation Stabilisation is the process that supports states which are entering, enduring or emerging from conflict, in order to prevent or reduce violence; protect the population and key infrastructure; promote political processes and governance structures which lead to a political settlement that institutionalises non-violent contests for power; and prepare for sustainable social and economic development

26. PART 1: STABILISATION • The problem of societal conflicts within fragile states: • the UK approach to the stabilisation • the underlying causes of state fragility and societal conflicts • 3 big ideas: • ‘comprehensively’ across security, development and governance lines of operation • central conflict relationship - host government, competing elites (+ insurgents), wider population • the national strategic aim - to foster the development of a political settlement, amenable to broader UK interests between these actors JDP 3-40 Macro Structure • PART 2: THE MILITARY CONTRIBUTION TO STABILISATION • the nature of military engagement within stabilisation missions • the military’s role in influencing the societal conflict in ways which foster the development of a political settlement • the generic types of operational tasks the military may be required to conduct across security, governance and development lines of operation – permissiveness is the key • a set of principles for the use of military force • PART 3: CAMPAIGNING IN STABILISATION • the critical function of intelligence in underpinning the campaigning cycle • the specifics of campaigning within the stabilisation environment • the tools and insights necessary for conducting the iterative cycle of campaign design, analysis, planning, execution and assessment • Anticipating, learning and adapting

27. JDP 3-40:Key Themes • The Centrality of Influence in Stabilisation – to achieve a political settlement • Stabilisation Activities & combat are both part of complex operations • Host Nation sovereignty impacts on everything you do • Security demands persistent presence – requires mass and is linked to capacity building • Multinationality brings its own complexity • Any plan must be comprehensive in its considerations – there should be an integrated theatre campaign plan • The military are likely to have a significant role in the delivery of civil effect • Anticipate, learn and adapt. • Transitions – planned, managed - dynamic

28. Key Conflict Relationship

29. Questions

30. www.dcdc.mod.uk