How the Air Force Addresses Training and Analysis for Wargaming

1. Headquarters U.S. Air Force I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e Better Wargaming for Air Force Training and Analysis Presented by: Dr. Dominick’ Wright Leidos Contract Support to Air Force Operational Energy (SAF/IEN) o o As of: JUL 11 2018

2. Purpose and Outline Over the past 10 years, the United States Air Force has made considerable strides towards improving the rigor and overall conduct of its Title X wargame campaign, Global Engagement (GE) – an operational-level wargame. Despite considerable gains, work remains to be done. As implemented, the current system of players, tools, and adjudicators is primarily one of external inputs informing decision making. An improved system is one that integrates modeling and simulation tool support directly into decision making and game execution processes.  Outline An Ideal State for Wargaming Supported with Integrated Modeling and Simulation Gap Assessments • Pre-Game Planning • Move Planning • Move Adjudication Reflection o o o A revised system, hopefully achieved by time of executing the 2020 campaign, will incorporate at least some of the proposed resolutions to gaps identified in this presentation. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 2

3. Describing Wargaming as an Ideal State Game Objectives ISWAT* Blue and Red Joint Combat Power Generation (e.g., Sortie Generation) Power Projection by System (e.g., MDS) as a function of MX, MUNS, POL, and operating location (e.g., operating strip length) Force Flow & Resupply (PAX, MUNS, POL, MX, Medical, CE, and other resources) as a function of capability requirements, prepositioning strategy, and strategic lift *ISWAT, developed by FTI, is an AF POR The wargaming ideal seamlessly links planning through execution. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 3

4. Pre-Game Planning Current Practice Gap Assessment  Air Force GE18 Exemplars Posture • By applying the Air Force Research Laboratory-developed tool, Base Enhancement Assessment Tool (BEAT), to play changes in strategic posture achieved through military construction (MILCON) Force Modules and Force Flow • By realistically, though imperfectly, detailing force modules and characterizing force flow for closure and combat power generation  Posture Tools for MILCON planning are distinct from those used in GIS- informed base laydowns A development requirement is to link existing GIS databases with MILCON planning and base reconfiguring tools o o o  Force Modules and Force Flow Reconfiguration of force modules is happening across DoD in light of changes to the strategic environment Planning and gaming tools must be synchronized to inform leadership what force module capabilities are along with the monetary and physical costs incurred to achieve them o o o I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 4

5. Move Planning Current Practice Gap Assessment  Uniformed and civilian domain subject matter experts (SMEs) develop schemes of maneuver, concepts of support, and overall plans for execution as proposals for leadership to review  PowerPoint briefs amount to virtual overheads – they are static and not naturally connected to supporting data  Since the mid 2000s, DoD has made progress towards the development of Adaptive Planning and Execution – conceptually and as a toolset. Army and Joint Staff’s Map Based Planning System (MBS) is an extensible system of planning visualization and analysis tools that should be considered as a replacement to PowerPoint  Adjunct tools support the generation of insights  SMEs compile inputs into PowerPoint briefs for delivery to leadership  PowerPoint briefs double as “move sheets” for delivery to Adjudication I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 5

6. Move Adjudication Current Practice Gap Assessment  Receive 400+ slides per move  Translating insufficiently defined combat actions into sequences for evaluation is time-consuming and prone to error During the last move of GE18 Capstone, the realization at 11PM of insufficient aerial refueling capacity did not occur until after Combat Air adjudication; we made due, but it should not have happened  Translate slide inputs into Blue and Red action sequences  Adjudicate, preferably through iteration if time is available, the consequence of individual and combined action sequences across domains Adjunct modeling and simulation tools, reference tables, and SME judgment inform adjudication o o  Standardizing planning inputs (e.g., MBPS) and adjudication methods (e.g., Center for Army Analysis’s Joint Wargame Analysis Model) will enhance rigor, repeatability, and the efficiency of game execution I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 6

7. Reflection Recent discussions in Air Force wargaming have tended toward ideas about applications of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) that will considerably advanced our understandings of game results and their implications. As described here, much of the current wargaming process in the Air Force is analog. Some in support of AI and ML approaches want to disregard analog components entirely. That position is not advocated for here. The learning and insights that occur through analog components of the game should be supported by and not replaced my modeling and simulation tools. Doing so will ensure that we leverage the wealth of expertise available in combination with 21stcentury tools. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 7

8. Questions? Thank you for your time. I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 8

9. Base Planning with QGIS I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 9

10. Reflection Tool Function Tested? Integrated? Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes No Yes Notes ISWAT TAB-VAM 1 Kinetic Strike KS PMJ 2 Kinetic Strike APT 0 Base Planning GIS Tools 2 Base Planning AMP 2 Resource Resupply TOM 0 Inland Distribution BFSC 1 Resource Resupply 2 Sortie Generation Yes No Yes No Yes Yes No No Focal Point Rapid, theater-wide attrition with time; PMJ+ Combine with TAB-VAM Prep GIS Files; manual may be easier Free and accessible; Streamline input and output processes; No POL Multi-modal distro to base; debugging Surface-vessel transport of POL I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 10

11. The Operational Energy Network Bulk Fuel Supply Calculator Transportation Optimization Model I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e

12. TAB-VAM Inputs and Outputs Aircraft TPFDD Decoys Physical Attributes … Types Locations Timing Runway Parking POL Mx … Locations Locations Locations Inputs Many of these inputs are pre- loaded Missile Strike Manual or Auto Output Day 3 7 4 2 1 7 6 3 8 2 7 Timestep 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 Location Saipan Intl Atsugi NAF Fukuoka Kadena AB Nyutabaru Atsugi NAF Oita Atsugi NAF Saipan Intl Fukuoka Kadena AB MDS Destroyed+ F-16C C-130E C-130J C-17 A-10 F-15C EA-6B F-15C KC-135 MQ-1 C-17 3 1 3 1 4 5 POL MUNS MX +Decoys 63 6 2 2 1 I n t e g r i t y - S e r v i c e - E x c e l l e n c e 12

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