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The History of Wargaming

The History of Wargaming . Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. AFRL Wargaming Plans & Programs Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory 6 December 2007. Disclaimer.

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The History of Wargaming

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  1. The History of Wargaming Matthew B. Caffrey Jr. AFRL Wargaming Plans & Programs Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory 6 December 2007

  2. Disclaimer The views expressed in this briefing are those of the speaker and do not necessarily represent those of the Air Force Research Laboratory or the United States Air Force.

  3. My Bio • Previous Civilian positions: • Professor of Wargaming, ACSC • Research Associate, SAAS • Colonel USAFR (ret.) Assignments included: • Senior Reservist, AFRL, Info Directorate • Chief Wargaming, AF/XOOC (Checkmate) • Co-author Gulf War Fact Book

  4. If you are professionally interested in Wargaming you probably want to know • Is it advantageous to wargame? • If advantageous, what factors degrade utility? • What can be done to increase the utility?

  5. How Do We Answer These Questions? • Set Up Experiments?

  6. How Do We Answer These Questions? • Set Up Experiments? • Find Natural Experiments

  7. Strategy Cycle History Theory Doctrine Plan Execution

  8. Other Reasons to Learn The History Of Wargaming? • Gives credit to those who advanced the field • It provides “the rest of the story” • It’s interesting

  9. In the Beginning • It all started with language - and toys • The Royal Toys

  10. Egypt Egypt Egypt Egypt Egypt Rome China India In the Beginning

  11. On The Brink • Fredrick‘s use of maps • Clerk models naval combat • Abstract games grow less abstract: • 1664 Koinigspiel • 1780 Kriegschach • 1797 New Kriegspiel

  12. The Long Haired Revolutionary

  13. Napoleon’s Advantages • Technology • Genius • Meritocracy • Numbers

  14. The Origins of Modern Wargaming 1811 - Herr von Reisswitz - a base of sand 1824 - Lt Reisswitz - the expanding circle

  15. Moltke’s Process - Offsite - Brain Storming - Wargame - Exercise - Deliberate Planning

  16. World Wide Wargaming 1866 Austro-Hungarian 1872 / 1883 England 1873 Italy 1874 / 1889 France 1820 / 1875 / 1905 Russia Secondary diffusion Japan, Turkey, Latin Am.

  17. Coming to America • 1883 - Major Livermore

  18. Coming to America • 1886 - US Naval War College 1883 - Major Livermore

  19. Coming to America • 1900 - US Army War College 1883 - Major Livermore 1886 - US Naval War College

  20. Innovation • Decline Egypt Egypt Egypt Egypt Egypt Egypt Moral Factors Free War- gaming Morale Factors Free War- gaming Face Time Cmd Influ- ence Innovation & Decline in Germany • Innovation

  21. Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming The Reserve Connection • 1873- Wilkinson- one man’s impact • 1890s Delbrück - first duty of the new rulers

  22. Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming The Popularizes

  23. Birth of Modern Civilian Wargaming The Popularizes

  24. Wargaming the Great War • Pre-war Wargaming l 1905 The wargames that shaped the world l1910s Moltke the Younger and the return of rigor l1914 The wg that didn’t change history • Wargaming & the Great War lThe Peace offensive - the limits of „force on force“ wargaming

  25. Inter War Wargaming • Germany – Strat Innovation > “Blood & Soil” - Opp Innovation > Blitzkrieg

  26. Strategy Cycle History Theory Doctrine Plan Execution

  27. Strategy Cycle History Theory Doctrine Plan Wargame

  28. Inter War Wargaming • Germany – Strat Innovation > “Blood & Soil” - Opp Innovation > Blitzkrieg • US • Germany – Strat Innovation > “Blood & Soil” - Opp Innovation > Blitzkrieg • US • UK - Negative example • USSR - Victory through defeat Navy PME: - Teach how to learn - Accelerate MTR Army: Just in Time Air Corps: A false dawn

  29. World War II • Germany l Mannstein makes his case lBarbarossa - an accurate mistake lVictory at Normandy, twice

  30. World War II Japan • The Total War Research Institute

  31. World War II

  32. World War II • Both attacks on Pearl Harbor Japan The Total War Research Institute

  33. World War II

  34. World War II Japan The Total War Research Institute Both attacks on Pearl Harbor Both battles of Midway Why did Japan keep on fighting

  35. World War II • UK • Both extremes

  36. World War II • UK • Both extremes • US • US Army Ground Forces - unknown • US Army Air Forces - sorely missed • USMC “eerie” success, then.. • Navy success - but ...

  37. World War II The war with Japan had been [enacted] in the game room here by so many people in so many different ways that nothing that happened during the war was a surprise, – absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze…”. Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz

  38. Eclipse Decline in the study of war at the war colleges Rise of deterrence & the efficient DoD Did „The Bomb“ make wargames obsolete? Korea seen as an aberration

  39. Why was Wargaming Reborn? • The onset of the Cold War • Assumed credibility of computers • Prestige of Operations Research • Reaction against the management mindset of Vietnam The obsolescence of war had been greatly exaggerated

  40. 1950s Analysis models • US • Naval - “NEWS” from the Naval War Col • USMC - Landing Force War Game series • Army - “Aggressors,” at least a start • Air Force - RAND & war gaming • International • Soviet historical rigor • UK OR

  41. 1960s Pentagon Games • US • Joint - Wargaming at the heart • Naval - NWC goes to “WARS” • Army - making the case for Air Mobile • Air Force - looses Skybolt, gains PME WG • International - UK & Canadian OR

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