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Economic and Tax Revenue Outlook

Economic and Tax Revenue Outlook. Mark Zandi Economy.com, Inc. Jobs, Millions Source: BLS. Prolonged Suffering. Previous Cycles. Sources: BLS, Economy.com. Early ‘90s Cycle. Current Cycle. States In Recession. Recession. Flat. Expanding. State and Local Government Deficit

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Economic and Tax Revenue Outlook

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  1. Economic and Tax Revenue Outlook Mark Zandi Economy.com, Inc.

  2. Jobs, Millions Source: BLS

  3. Prolonged Suffering Previous Cycles Sources: BLS, Economy.com Early ‘90s Cycle Current Cycle

  4. States In Recession Recession Flat Expanding

  5. State and Local Government Deficit Source: BEA Share of GDP (R) Billions $ (L)

  6. Businesses Confidence Rebounds Business Confidence Survey January 2003 = 100 4 week Moving Average Source: Economy.com

  7. State Government Tax Revenues Billions $, 4- Quarter Moving Sum Source: Census

  8. Tax Payments Billions $ (L) Effective Tax Rate (R) Source: BEA

  9. Real GDP Growth % Change Year Ago Sources: BEA, Economy.com Actual Without Housing

  10. Nonfinancial Productivity Growth % Change Year Ago, 4-Quarter Moving Average Source: BLS

  11. Real Wage Growth % Change Year Ago, 4-Quarter Moving Average Sources: BLS, BEA

  12. Profit Margins of Nonfinancial Businesses 4-Quarter Moving Average Source: BEA

  13. Near-Term OutlookReal GDP Year over Year Growth Potential Growth

  14. Road to RecoveryStable Economies Philadelphia Baltimore Las Vegas Washington, D.C. Raleigh Riverside Orange County Albuquerque San Diego West Palm Beach Tampa San Antonio Ft. Lauderdale Miami

  15. Road to Recovery2003 H2Computer Hardware, Distribution Philadelphia Central NJ Oakland Sacramento Baltimore Las Vegas Washington, D.C. Norfolk Raleigh Los Angeles Riverside Memphis Orange County Albuquerque Atlanta San Diego Phoenix Jacksonville Austin Orlando West Palm Beach Tampa San Antonio Ft. Lauderdale Miami

  16. Road to Recovery2004 H1Software, Travel Portland Minneapolis Salt Lake City Philadelphia Chicago Central NJ Oakland Sacramento Baltimore Indianapolis Las Vegas San Jose Washington, D.C. Norfolk Raleigh Los Angeles Riverside Memphis Charlotte Orange County Albuquerque Atlanta San Diego Phoenix Jacksonville Austin Orlando New Orleans West Palm Beach Tampa Houston San Antonio Ft. Lauderdale Miami

  17. Road to Recovery2004 H2Telecom, Money Management Portland Minneapolis Boston Pittsburgh Salt Lake City Philadelphia Chicago Central NJ Oakland Sacramento Baltimore San Francisco Indianapolis Las Vegas Denver San Jose Washington, D.C. Norfolk Kansas CIty Raleigh Los Angeles Riverside Memphis Charlotte Orange County Albuquerque Atlanta San Diego Phoenix Dallas Jacksonville Austin Orlando New Orleans West Palm Beach Tampa Houston San Antonio Ft. Lauderdale Miami

  18. Road to Recovery2005 H1Traditional Manufacturing Portland Minneapolis Boston Milwaukee Detroit Pittsburgh Salt Lake City Philadelphia Chicago Central NJ Oakland Sacramento Baltimore San Francisco Indianapolis OH MSAs Las Vegas Denver San Jose Washington, D.C. Norfolk Kansas CIty Raleigh Los Angeles Riverside Memphis Charlotte Orange County Albuquerque Atlanta San Diego Phoenix Dallas Jacksonville Austin Orlando New Orleans West Palm Beach Tampa Houston San Antonio Ft. Lauderdale Miami

  19. Road to Recovery2006 H1Investment Banking, Commercial Aircraft Seattle Portland Minneapolis Boston Milwaukee Detroit Pittsburgh Salt Lake City Broad NYC Region Philadelphia Chicago Central NJ Oakland Sacramento Baltimore San Francisco Indianapolis OH MSAs Las Vegas Denver San Jose Washington, D.C. Norfolk Kansas CIty Raleigh Los Angeles Riverside Memphis Charlotte Orange County Albuquerque Atlanta San Diego Phoenix Dallas Jacksonville Austin Orlando New Orleans West Palm Beach Tampa Houston San Antonio Ft. Lauderdale Miami

  20. State Tax Revenue Growth Outlook% Change Long-Run Growth

  21. Tax Revenues Billions $ Source: Economy.com

  22. Ballooning Trade Deficit Trade Deficit Billions $ Source: Census Total x OPEC (L) China (R)

  23. Erosion in Sales Tax Efficacy Sales Taxes as a Share of Consumer Spending Sources: BEA, Economy.com

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