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n84 perspective on metrics

Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV. 2. Perspective. N84 TOA shrinks to $120M/year in FY08Less than

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n84 perspective on metrics

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    1. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 1 N84 Perspective on Metrics LCDR Jake Hinz OPNAV N84 Deputy Branch Head, Oceanography Programs 22 March 2007

    2. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 2 Navy’s Total Obligation Authority or TOA is approximately $100B No the Navy is not a business but we have to operate like a business because that’s what the taxpayer expects as the custodian of their dollars. But if you look at this chart we provide international security 24/7 for about 1% of our gross domestic product. Navy’s Total Obligation Authority or TOA is approximately $100B No the Navy is not a business but we have to operate like a business because that’s what the taxpayer expects as the custodian of their dollars. But if you look at this chart we provide international security 24/7 for about 1% of our gross domestic product.

    3. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 3 Metrics Buy and Defend Stuff N84 owns a ~$120M slice of shrinking fiscal pie. Entrepreneurs looking to increase & defend the pie RDTEN and OPN POM08 – LBSF&I, PR-09 Altimetry Fleet requirements get your foot in the door. Metrics seal the deal! ROI, EVM, BCA, Cost Risk Tooth vs. Tail

    4. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 4 Capability Counts at OPNAV A capability gap is important because the Fleet says so! COCOM Integrated Priority List (IPL) Fleet Priority Lists Other written Fleet Requirements (Messages, ideally FFC endorsed) Joint Capabilities Integration and Development System Documents What makes the N81 Warfighting Capability Plan Cards What it Takes to Win Metrics (WITTW) Campaign Analysis Vignette Analysis N81 Sponsored Analysis N84 Sponsored Analysis Internal studies may help but have little “pedigree”

    5. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 5 Assure allies PN XX% against TBM attacks on xx key APOD/SPOD Assure access and re-open SLOC Military lift (escorted) by D+XX Commercial access by D+XX Achieve favorable war termination Destroy all SS (D+X) and ASCM-armed surface ships/craft (D+X) Destroy/neutralize all regional power projection capabilities by D+XX Minimize blue losses Probability of one or more CV/CVN out of action (OOA) <X% Probability of one or more submarines OOA <XX% No more than an average of X surface ship OOA No more than an average of XX (manned/unmanned) aircraft lost Achieve EXW operational goals with ?X% losses to USMC forces Campaign Metrics What It Takes To Win Criteria

    6. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 6 Mission Capability Metrics

    7. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 7 Ocean/Hydro/Riverine Survey POM-08 Summary: Current: Yellow based on limited access to denied/contested areas in littoral MCO regions. Survey fleet collects data in prioritized international waters, and Space-based Altimetry coverage provides broad area characterization and identifies dynamic features. LBSF&I: A long-term investment designed to accurately characterize littoral and or denied/contested MCO regions. Goal is to “fully enable” emerging (e.g., distributed netted) sensors by 2024…i.e., a “20 year plan”. The summary line depicts some improvement once LBSF&I is fielded, though it’s capability will not be fully realized until after 2020. Altimeter: Loss over altimeter coverage will result in an “overnight” degradation of capability to enable acoustic TDAs with accurate propagation fields. The situation worsens toward 2024 for 2 reasons: (1) The systems designed to fight in MCO2 require accurate environmental inputs to be effective (i.e, to deliver “as advertised” clearances and detection probabilities), and (2) LBSF&I and Survey resources will likely be stretched in an effort to make up for the loss of altimeter coverage…detracting from their primary mission of detailed preparation of the MCO battlespace.POM-08 Summary: Current: Yellow based on limited access to denied/contested areas in littoral MCO regions. Survey fleet collects data in prioritized international waters, and Space-based Altimetry coverage provides broad area characterization and identifies dynamic features. LBSF&I: A long-term investment designed to accurately characterize littoral and or denied/contested MCO regions. Goal is to “fully enable” emerging (e.g., distributed netted) sensors by 2024…i.e., a “20 year plan”. The summary line depicts some improvement once LBSF&I is fielded, though it’s capability will not be fully realized until after 2020. Altimeter: Loss over altimeter coverage will result in an “overnight” degradation of capability to enable acoustic TDAs with accurate propagation fields. The situation worsens toward 2024 for 2 reasons: (1) The systems designed to fight in MCO2 require accurate environmental inputs to be effective (i.e, to deliver “as advertised” clearances and detection probabilities), and (2) LBSF&I and Survey resources will likely be stretched in an effort to make up for the loss of altimeter coverage…detracting from their primary mission of detailed preparation of the MCO battlespace.

    8. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 8 Developing Analysis Outcomes

    9. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 9 ROI for Environmental Knowledge Study Proposed Framework Assumption: Campaign Analysis baseline WITTW metrics represent “best case”—i.e., Environmental “Certainty”. Hypothesis: Decreasing Environmental uncertainty will improve WITTW metrics toward the baseline.

    10. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 10 METOC Requirements ISO GWOT, Riverine, & NSW Operations Issue: METOC analysis to date have modeled system capabilities to conduct intelligence preparation of the environment (IPE) in deep to shallow water regions to support MCOs. Continued work is needed to evaluate POR sensors and environmental system capabilities to conduct IPE in support of GWOT, Riverine, and NSW Operations. Study Objectives: Assess POR sensors and environmental systems to thoroughly conduct battlespace preparation in support of GWOT, Riverine, and NSW operations in very shallow water, coastal, bay and harbor, river, and estuary environments. Quantify the value of knowing these parameters to the success of the operation. Identify the requirements, gaps and sampling resolutions. Develop a sampling strategy. Synopsis: N81P is the tasking source for this study which was previously titled “Littoral Access Capability Gaps.” Previous environmental battlespace preparation studies have focused on ASW in MCO-2 and MIW in MCO-1 and -3.  Continued analysis is required to address IPE in very shallow and coastal waters, rivers, bays, harbors, and estuaries. Identify environmental parameters critical to support of expeditionary warfare, Special Forces insertion, etc. This would include very shallow water, coastal, bay and harbor, river, and estuary environments. Quantify the value of knowing these parameters to the success of the operation. Identify the gaps. Identify sampling resolutions. Develop a sampling strategy. Identify requirements, consider alternatives. Synopsis: N81P is the tasking source for this study which was previously titled “Littoral Access Capability Gaps.” Previous environmental battlespace preparation studies have focused on ASW in MCO-2 and MIW in MCO-1 and -3.  Continued analysis is required to address IPE in very shallow and coastal waters, rivers, bays, harbors, and estuaries. Identify environmental parameters critical to support of expeditionary warfare, Special Forces insertion, etc. This would include very shallow water, coastal, bay and harbor, river, and estuary environments. Quantify the value of knowing these parameters to the success of the operation. Identify the gaps. Identify sampling resolutions. Develop a sampling strategy. Identify requirements, consider alternatives.

    11. Pre-decisional - Not for release outside of OPNAV 11 Metrics Thoughts from N84 ASW offered fairly clear cut relationships for success Median Detection Range, Surface Duct, Sonic Layer Depth Broad scope of NSW missions - we must narrow the field First ID known gaps and areas for support improvement Map to fleet requirements and measures of success We can start there with modeling impacts in vignettes Improving water temp forecasts for their own sake is not compelling Mine operator data for indications of repeated impacts Expert anecdotes may not point to high value metrics Eg. CA sea lions and Guam dogs vs. Frostbite or Parachute OPS Gather a broad scope of data to ID future capability gaps. This data can then be mined for largest improvements from future program expansion

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