2008 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State Universi

1. 2008 Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Phil Klotzbach Department of Atmospheric Science Colorado State University Lexington Insurance Company Hurricane Outlook Symposium

2. So easy a caveman could do it.

3. Introduction The globe’s atmosphere and oceans function as one unit. Current circulation features have considerable precursor information regarding the coming season’s amount of hurricane activity.

5. OUTGOING LONGWAVE RADIATION LATENT HEAT FLUX SENSIBLE HEAT AND POTENTIAL ENERGY FLUX ABSORBED SOLAR RADIATION NET ENERGY BALANCE SUBSURFACE HEAT STORAGE THERMAL INERTIA OCEAN HEAT FLUX TEMPERATURE Flow diagram for climate modeling, showing feedback loops. From Robock (1985).

6. 2008 Hurricane Forecast

7. 2008 FORECAST AS OF 3 JUNE 2008

8. Hurricane Bertha

9. Hurricane Bertha Trivia • Storm Formation - 13.3°N, 24.7°W – furthest east a storm has formed in the Main Development Region prior to 1 August • Sixth year since 1950 with a hurricane in the MDR prior to 1 August – other five years were 1954, 1960, 1961, 1996 and 2005

10. New June Forecast Predictors 1` April-May SST & May SLP EQ. 2` ` April-May 200 MB U

11. Hindcast vs. Observed NTC - 1 June - Rank Prediction Method 300 Observed Hindcast 250 2 200 R = 0.66 150 100 50 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

12. SSTA SLPA 925 MB U 200 MB U

13. 25 Hurricane Landfalls Top 15 1 June NTC Hindcasts – Florida Peninsula + East Coast Hurricane Landfalls 9 Hurricane Landfalls Bottom 15 1 June NTC Hindcasts – Florida Peninsula + East Coast Hurricane Landfalls

14. 9 Major Hurricane Landfalls Top 15 June NTC Hindcasts – Florida Peninsula + East Coast Major Hurricane Landfalls 1 Major Hurricane Landfall Bottom 15 June NTC Hindcasts – Florida Peninsula + East Coast Major Hurricane Landfalls

16. BEST ANALOG YEARS FOR 2008 (JUNE FORECAST)

17. 2008 Forecast Schedule Summary To Date Summary To Date

19. PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS FOR 2008 • Entire U.S. coastline – 69% (average for last century is 52%) • 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida - 45%(average for last century is 31%) • 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 44% (average for last century is 30%) • 4) Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

20. New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application Currently Available at the following URL: http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory – Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA

22. REGION 2 - TEXAS & LOUISIANA H A J L C O J C V C (b) (c) (a)

25. Future Work • State Probabilities • User-Selected Probabilities (Daily, Weekly Periods)

26. Arago’s Admonition: “Never, no matter what may be the progress of science, will honest scientific men who have regard for their reputations venture to predict the weather.”

27. Alfred E. Neuman Me Worry- WHY?