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2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services tdrum@weatherbug.com. 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast. April 2, 2009. Hurricane Ike, NOAA. Review of 2008 Season Forecast. 2008 Season Forecast. Forecast Numbers: 10-12 named Storms

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2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

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  1. Tim Drum Senior Meteorologist WeatherBug Professional Services tdrum@weatherbug.com 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast April 2, 2009 Hurricane Ike, NOAA

  2. Review of 2008Season Forecast

  3. 2008 Season Forecast Forecast Numbers: • 10-12 named Storms • 4-6 Tropical Storms should reach Hurricane status • 2-4 Hurricanes of Major Category III classification • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA) near 100% of normal 16 8 5 164%

  4. 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season

  5. GeneralOverview

  6. Ana Bill ClaudetteDanny Erika FredGrace Henri IdaJoaquin Kate LarryMindy Nicholas OdettePeter Rose SamTeresa Victor Wanda 2009 Atlantic Basin Names

  7. Atlantic Basin T.C. Distribution

  8. Atlantic Basin Averages

  9. Current State of theAtlantic Basin

  10. SST Anomalies – Atlantic 3/28/09 Slightly cooler than average

  11. Still midway through projected WARM ocean phase that is expected to last ~ 10 more years. Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation

  12. Current State of EPACENSO Cycle

  13. ENSO Cycle La Nina Example - 1988 El Nino Example - 1997

  14. Latest Weekly ENSO SST Anomaly ???

  15. Forecast SST Anomalies - EPAC

  16. Climatology of Comparable Seasons

  17. Going back to 1950, look at a weak La Nina followed by a neutral or weak El Nino. Establishing Data Set Method • Focus on the seasons from above that also occurred during the “warm” phase of the AMO

  18. Weak La Nina To Neutral Years(ONI) Averages: • 10.5 Storms (10.1) • 6.2 Hurricanes (5.9) • 2.5 Major Hurricanes (2.5)

  19. Weak La Nina + WarmAMO Years Averages: • 11.2 Storms (10.1) • 6.6 Hurricanes (5.9) • 3.6 Major Hurricanes (2.5)

  20. Other Factorsto Consider

  21. African Dust Played a significant role in mitigating tropical cyclone development in 2006 & 2007 and part of 2008.

  22. African Rainfall Near average rainfall forecast over the northern Sahel region may lead to dust “outbreaks” again, this season.

  23. The Forecast

  24. La Nina conditions in EPAC to weaken, especially for the second half of the season. • Statistics from previous near neutral ENSO + AMO years weigh heavily toward reduced activity from last year. Summary of Forecast Points • Conditions over western Africa mean additional dust outbreaks over the central and eastern tropical Atlantic.

  25. 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast • 11-13 named storms (10.1 avg.) • 6-8 hurricanes (5.9 avg.) • 3-4 major hurricanes: winds 111+ mph (2.5 avg.) • Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTCA): • near 130% of normal.

  26. CME Group HurricaneContracts • 3 Different types of Hurricane Contracts • 6 Different locations for Hurricane Contracts • Event Futures, Options, Event Binary Options • Based upon named Hurricanes making landfall anywhere in the Eastern US or reaching the CHI-Cat-in-a-box Galveston-Mobile area • Seasonal Futures, Options, Seasonal Binary Options • Based upon the accumulated CHI value for allHurricanesthat make landfall within a specific season • Seasonal Maximum Futures, Options, Seasonal Maximum Binary Options, Seasonal Maximum 2nd Event Binary Options • Based on the CHI value of thelargest Hurricane to make landfall within a specific season

  27. CME Group HurricaneContract Locations • Gulf Coast (Brownsville TX to AL/FL Border) • Florida (AL/FL Border to Fernandina Beach, FL) • Southern Atlantic (Fernandina Beach, FL to NC/VA Border) Coast • Northern Atlantic (NC/VA Border to Eastport, ME) Coast • Eastern US (Brownsville, TX to Eastport, ME) • Gulf & Florida (Brownsville, TX to Fernandina Beach, FL) • CHI-Cat-in-a-Box (Galveston-Mobile area)

  28. CME Group Hurricane Contract Specifications Standard Contracts: • Contract: $1000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index • Tick Size: 0.1 CHI Index Point • Tick Value: 0.1 CHI Index point which equals $100 • Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time • Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31 Binary Contracts: • Contract: $10,000 times the respective CME Hurricane Index • Tick Value: 0.01 CHI Index point which equals $1 • Hours: Sunday through Thursday from 5.00p.m. to 3.15p.m. Chicago time • Available: Throughout the hurricane season from January 1 through December 31

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