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War Onsets

War Onsets. War Deaths. War Deaths (logged). Post-WWII War. Current European Conflicts.

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War Onsets

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  1. War Onsets

  2. War Deaths

  3. War Deaths (logged)

  4. Post-WWII War

  5. Current European Conflicts Albania CivilSuspended: Political turmoil largely ended in mid-1997 as the situation in Albania was over-shadowed by worsening conditions and warfare in neighboring Kosovo. Albania seized the opportunity presented by the war and the attention of the West to improve its meager prospects. Factionalism should remain defused as long as NATO forces remain in Kosovo. Bosnia Ethnic (Croats, Muslims, Serbs) Suspended: The war in Bosnia ended with the Dayton Accords and NATO enforcement of a de facto separation of ethnic enclaves; de facto arrangements contradict de jure expectations and there are no visible grounds for a permanent settlement. Future of Bosnia is linked with neighboring, unsettled situations in Kosovo, Croatia, Albania, and the Montenegrin region of Yugoslavia. Croatia Ethnic (Serbs) Suspended: No major incidents since 1995 Croat offensive against Serbs in the Krajina region; vast majority of the refugees are Serbs from Slavonia. Russia Ethnic (Chechens) Ongoing (Medium): Attempts by Chechen guerrillas to extend their control into the neighboring Dagestan province in August 1999 has rekindled warfare that had been suspended in with a standoff in 1996. Terrorist attacks in Moscow and other cities are linked to the fighting around Chechniya; Russian forces rely mainly on air attacks to subdue the militants. Yugoslavia Ethnic (Kosovar Albanians) Suspended: NATO forces have driven the Yugoslavian Army from Kosovo and are enforcing a UN-monitored transitional regime. No de jure resolution, only a de facto solution that contradicts "legal" distinctions. Expect revisionism. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting,unclear)

  6. Current Asian Conflicts (I) Afghanistan Ethnic (Non-Pushtun)Ongoing (High): Taliban solidifies control over Pushtun areas but can not establish control over other ethnic enclaves; no attempts at reconciliation. Bangladesh Ethnic (Chittagong Hills)Suspended: December 1997 peace agreement with Shanti Bahini (Chakma) rebels ended armed conflict but has not redressed many of the issues that characterized the conflict, including adverse living conditions and encroachments by Bengali settlers in tribal areas. Bhutan Ethnic (Lhotsampa)Repressed: Most of the Lhotsampa (Hindu-Nepali) refugees left Bhutan between 1990 and 1992 due to (continuing) ill-treatment by the Drukpa-dominated government. Cambodia CivilSuspended: A new coalition government involving the main rivals to power in Cambodia effected in November 1998 signals a willingness to stabilize the country in its recovery from years of devastating armed conflict and violence. China Ethnic (Tibet)Repressed: Serious inter-communal tensions between migrant Han Chinese and traditional Tibetan Buddhists continue as large exile group led by the Dalai Lama exert pressure from the outside against China's domination of Tibetan politics and designation of a Pachen Lama as spiritual leader of the area. Strong repression prevents open conflict. China Ethnic (Uighurs)Repressed: Tensions continue to run high in China's Xinjiang province since ethnic riots rocked the region in 1996-97. b repression prevents open conflict in the region; Amnesty International reports that about 200 have been executed for separatist activity over the past two years. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  7. Current Asian Conflicts (II) India Ethnic (Kashmiris)Ongoing (Medium): India appears to have gained a momentary advantage in its ongoing struggle to maintain control over its portion of Kashmir but Pakistan's unwavering support for armed struggle by the Kashmiris leaves the situation beyond practical resolution. India Ethnic (NE Tribals)Ongoing (Low): Assamese, Bodo, Santhal, Reang, Zomi/Paite, Kuki, Naga, Mizo, Chakma, Bengali, Nepali, Tripura, and Manipur peoples have, at various times, been identified with separatist activity and anti-regime or inter-communal violence in northeast India. Most active groups at present are the Bodo and Assamese who are fighting Bengali migration into their traditional territories. Indonesia Ethnic (Timor; Aceh; Ambon)Suspended (Tenuous): Rampages by local militias against pro-independence residents in East Timor are tolerated by the Indonesian Army prompting a UN Security Council mandate for an external peacemaking force in mid-September 1999. Although Indonesian government and army acquiesces to international pressure and allows the peacemakers in East Timor, internal hostility to Timor independence and external intervention remains unpredictable. The outcome of low-intensity ethnic rebellions in Aceh, Ambon, and Irian Jaya may be linked to the outcome of the situation in Timor. KyrgyzstanUnclear: An armed group numbering up to 1000 fighters crossed into southwestern Kyrgyzstan from Tajikistan in August 1999, occupying some seven villages and taking about a dozen hostages including four Japanese geologists and a Kyrgyz army officer after Russian troops were withdrawn from border patrols. Joint operations involving Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan armed forces have been directed against the intruders. Some 4000 local people have fled the fighting. Laos Ethnic (Hmong)No fighting: No fighting has been reported in Laos in 1999. Laos agreed in July 1999 to accept repatriation of the last remaining Hmong refugees from camps in Thailand. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  8. Current Asian Conflicts (III) Myanmar Ethnic (Non-Burmans)Ongoing (Low): Although the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) military regime has shown no signs of accepting either greater civilian rule, ethnic accommodation, or power-sharing, armed opposition to the regime has weakened since government offensives overran Karen bholds in 1995 and forced the Shan-dominated Mong Tai Army to surrender in 1996. Confrontations are largely avoided, except when government forces enter ethnic enclaves (e.g., Karenni pre-emptive attack in June 1999), renege on promises (e.g., Karen execution of hostages in March 1999) or in defense of drug trade (now controlled mainly by the United Wa State Army). Papua New Guinea Civil (Bougainville)Suspended: A permanent ceasefire agreement was signed on April 30, 1998; a multinational peace monitoring group led by Australia was put in place to oversee the implementation of the agreement granting increased autonomy for the region. Philippines Ethnic (Moro)Ongoing (Low): A peace agreement between the government and the Moro National Liberation Front in September 1996 created an Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (ARMM) and largely ended the insurgency there. However, a splinter group calling itself the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) vowed to continue the fight for independence. Peace talks are scheduled for October 1999 but renewed demands for independence in the wake of the East Timor referendum have led to increased tensions and postponement of elections in the ARMM. Philippines CivilOngoing (Low): Hostilities are increasing between the New People's Army (NPA) and Philippines government forces since long-running peace talks were terminated in May 1999. Following the NPA kidnaping of a high-ranking army officer, President Estrada suspended peace talks and the Joint Agreement on Safety and Immunity Guarantees (JASIG) in February 1999. Talks resumed but were suspended again in May when the opposition walked out in protest of the Senate's ratification of the US-Philippines Visiting Forces Agreement. President Estrada canceled the peace talks and JASIG on July 1 and ordered the armed forces and national police to cooperate in launching offensives against the NPA. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  9. Current Asian Conflicts (IV) Sri Lanka Ethnic (Tamils)Ongoing (High): A peace proposal drafted in 1995 granting regional autonomy to Tamil controlled areas has been stymied by opposition within both the majority- Sinhala and minority-Tamil communities. Moderates in both camps have been targeted with violence by more radical elements for collaboration with the enemy leaving little prospect for peace initiatives arising from within the warring groups. Serious fighting continues; no places nor persons are secure from military or terrorist attack. Tajikistan CivilSuspended (Tenuous): Most of the fighting ended with the 1997 peace accord; some continuing spillover from fighting by ethnic-Tajiks in neighboring Afghanistan. The United Tajik Opposition (UTO) is reported to have failed to comply with its promised disarmament and in August 1999 a large group of armed men crossed into neighboring Kyrgyzstan and created a serious confrontation in that country. Vietnam CivilNo fighting: The situation in Vietnam continues to improve and the country continues to normalize relations with neighboring states. In August 1999 China reported it had finished de-mining its frontier with Vietnam 20 years after a series of armed conflicts between the two countries. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  10. Current North African/Middle Eastern Conflicts (I) Algeria Civil (Islamicists)Suspended (Tenuous): b overtures by the military regime in conducting a referendum on the future of Algeria and a general amnesty for Islamic militants hopefully signals an end to the fighting. No response by the rebels has yet been reported. Azerbaijan Ethnic (Armenians)Interstate (Armenia) Suspended (Tenuous): 1994 cease-fire with the ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno- Karabakh was resulted in de facto autonomy for the region (and a declaration of independence) that has not been accepted by Azerbaijan. Azeri hostility also extends to Armenia and a continuing blockage of that country. Revisionism may reignite armed conflict in the region. Cyprus Ethnic (Turks)No fighting: Cyprus has been partitioned between majority-Greek and minority- Turkish areas since Turkey's armed forces invaded the island country in 1974 and set up a Turkish protectorate in north Cyprus. Georgia Ethnic (Abkhaz)Suspended (Tenuous): Abkhazia enjoys a de facto autonomy that is tolerated, but not accepted by the Georgia regime. In May 1998, Abkhazians drove ethnic-Georgians out of disputed territories; the Georgian government chose not to respond militarily to that provocation at that time. The standoff remains unsettled. Iraq Ethnic (Kurds) Suspended: US and British warplanes flying out of bases in Turkey continue to patrol the northern "no-fly zone" established in 1991 following Iraq's defeat in the Gulf War. The "no-fly zone" has created a de facto autonomous Kurdistan in Iraq where ethnic-Kurds are much more likely to experience fighting between rival factions: Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) or KDP with Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK-from Turkey), or attacks from Turkey's armed forces. Iraqi forces allied with the KDP against the PUK to control an outbreak of fighting in1996. Status quo in northern Iraq is wholly dependent on continued Western enforcement of the airspace. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  11. Current North African/Middle Eastern Conflicts (II) Iraq Ethnic (Shiites)Repressed: Tension is high in the majority-Shiite areas of southern Iraq where strong Iraqi repression has kept Shiite opposition in check since a brief uprising following the 1991 Gulf War. Iraq Interstate (US and UK)Ongoing (Low): US and British combat aircraft patrolling "no fly zones" over Iraqi territory have faced challenges from Iraq's air defense forces on the ground since the two allies launched damaging air strikes in December 1998 following the failure of the UN weapons inspection regime. The US and UK have responded to Iraq's challenges by attacking air defense sites and infrastructure targets in Iraq. Iran Ethnic (non-Shiites) 40,000 0 Unclear (probably repressed): Little is known about the situation of Kurds and other minority groups in Iran. There have been no major uprisings in Kurdish areas since 1993. Iran has been accused of giving support and refuge to Kurdish rebel groups in Iraq (PUK) and Turkey (PKK); Iran faced increased pressure from Turkey in 1999 to assist patrolling common borders and in combining operations against the People's Liberation Army of Kurdistan (ARGK) but Iran has apparently not cooperated. Israel/Palestine Ethnic (Palestinians)Suspended (Tenuous): Although some terrorist incidents still occur and rock-throwing protesters still maintain a regular vigil in the Occupied Territories, the armed conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is largely suspended, awaiting the outcome of the peace process and implementation of the Wye River accords. Lebanon Interstate (Israel)Ongoing (Low): Since the ending of its ethnic-based civil war in September 1992, fighting in Lebanon occurs mainly in areas near the Israeli-occupied territory in south Lebanon where Shiite Hezbollah guerrillas are trying to drive out Israeli troops and their South Lebanese Army ally. Syrian troops continue to enforce the "peace" that prevails in the rest of the country. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  12. Current North African/Middle Eastern Conflicts (III) Morocco Ethnic (Sahrawis)Suspended: Fighting between Moroccan armed forces and the ethnic-Sahrawi Polisario Front erupted in 1975 when Morocco claimed sovereignty over the former-Spanish colony of Western Sahara. A ceasefire was initiated in 1991and supported by the UN Mission for the Referendum in the Sahara (MINURSO) with plans for a referendum that was supposed to have taken place in 1992 but has been postponed repeatedly; the most recent date is set for March 2000. The Houston Peace Accords were drafted in 1997 with the help of the US to clarify the agreement. The delay in implementation centers on disagreement over voter registration. Syria Interstate (Israel)Suspended: Internally displaced persons in Syria fled from the Golan Heights area during the 1967 war with Israel and its consequent occupation of that area. An uneasy standoff has prevailed as Syria refuses to negotiate any settlement until Israel withdraws from the disputed territory. Turkey Ethnic (Kurds)Unclear (probably, ongoing): The Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has unilaterally declared that it will abandon armed struggle in Turkey, lay down its arms, and withdraw its armed forces from Turkey on September 1, 1999. It has also called for an end to its armed rivalry with the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) of northern Iraq. Turkey has rejected the initiative and has continued its attacks on PKK positions both within Turkey and in Iraq (there have also been reports of cross-border attacks by Turkey in Iran). Turkey has increased its pressure on the PKK since capturing its leader Abdullah Ocalan in February 1999. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  13. Current Sub-Saharan African Conflicts (I) Angola Civil (UNITA)Ongoing (High): Despite a UN brokered peace accord in 1997, UNITA forces under Jonas Savimbi renewed the war in Angola in late 1998, seizing a majority of the rural areas and mounting sporadic attacks on urban areas under the control of the MPLA. Burundi Ethnic (Hutu)Ongoing (Medium): An insurgency led by the Palipehutu and the CNDD-FDD continues to plague Burundi despite concerted efforts to gain resolution. Chad Civil/EthnicSuspended (Tenuous): Peace in Chad continues to be hampered by a low-intensity insurgency by Goukouni and Weddeyye rebels and the ethnic-Toubou based Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad.. Comoros Civil (Anjouan secession)Unclear: Fighting erupted in September 1999 in the capital city of the secessionist island of Anjouan. Leaders of Anjouan had declared their independence in August 1997 and this decision was backed by a October 1997 referendum. Previous clashes occurred in September 1997 and December 1998. Congo-Brazzaville Civil/Ethnic (Ninja)Ongoing (Medium): Ninja rebels backing ousted President Lissouba renew warfare in September 1998. Congo-Kinshasa Civil/Ethnic/InternationalOngoing (Medium): Fighting continues in many areas of eastern Congo despite the August 31, 1999, signing of the Lusaka peace accord by the warring factions and their foreign supporters. Most issues of disagreement among the many factions remain unresolved. Negotiations continue; expect continued outbreaks of fighting until a substantive agreement is reached. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  14. Current Sub-Saharan African Conflicts (II) Ethiopia Interstate (Eritrea)Ethnic (Oromo) Ongoing (High): A simmering border dispute with Eritrea erupted in interstate warfare in May 1998 and intensified dramatically in early 1999. Ethiopia is also fighting with multiple Oromo ethnic factions, including the Oromo Liberation Front, the United Oromo Peoples Liberation Front or Tokuchuma, the Al Ittihad, and the Islamic Oromo Liberation Front. Gambia CivilNo fighting: No reports of serious fighting in Gambia since the 1994 coup. Ghana Communal No fighting: Tensions remain in the north since serious inter-communal fighting broke out in 1994-95 between ethnic-Konkomba and ethnic-Dagomba (backed by Namumba and Gonja allies). Guinea-Bissau CivilOngoing (Medium): A January 1999 ceasefire was broken in February. On May 7, President Vieira and his government was ousted by rebel factions. Serious clashes have been reported in September 1999. Kenya CommunalNo fighting: Most of the ethnic clashes reported in Kenya in 1999 involved clashes between refugee groups from Sudan and Somalia or cross- border fighting between Ethiopian armed forces and Oromo rebels. Liberia Civil/Ethnic (Krahn)Suspended (Tenuous): The ECOWAS-brokered peace agreement of August 1997 largely ended the civil war in Liberia but has not led to a reconciliation between the warring factions. Fighting erupted in Morovia in 1998 and another outbreak was recorded in northern Lofa County in August 1999. Armed rebels of the ethnic-Krahn based Ulimo (United Liberation Movement) headed by Roosevelt Johnson continue to challenge the government led by Charles Taylor. Mali Ethnic (Tuareg)No fighting: No reports of serious fighting since peace agreement with Tuareg rebels in February 1993. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  15. Current Sub-Saharan African Conflicts (III) Mauritania Ethnic (Africans)No fighting: Refugees from Mauritania remain from the 1989-90 conflict involving Mauritania and Senegal during which Mauritania expelled black-Africans and Senegal expelled Arab Moors in a spate of reciprocal "ethnic-cleansing.“ Mozambique CivilSuspended: RENAMO insurgency ends with 1992 peace agreement. Niger Ethnic (Tuareg)Suspended: Peace Accord of April 1995 is augmented by a September 1997 peace agreement and ends the Tuareg rebellion. Nigeria CommunalOngoing (Low): Nigeria is beset by inter-communal clashes, mainly over land use or political control issues. Among the more serious communal clashes reported through mid-September in 1999 were those pitting Ilaje with Ijaw, Chemba-Jukun with Kuteb, Yoruba with Hausa, and Ijaw and Urhobo with Itsekeri. Rwanda Ethnic (Hutu)Ongoing (Low): Tutsi rebels seized control of the government in 1994 following a massive genocide aimed at ethnic-Tutsis and moderate Hutus. Hutu factions responsible for the 1994 genocide, the Inter-a-hamwe, are driven (and pursued) into neighboring regions, mainly Zaire/Congo and Uganda. A low-intensity insurgency led by the PALIR (Armed People for the Liberation of Rwanda) continues in the northwest province. Senegal Ethnic (Casamance)Ongoing (Low): Talks opened in June 1999 among separatist factions in the Casamance region trying to establish a united front before the opening of negotiations with the Senegalese government following 17 years of conflict. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  16. Current Sub-Saharan African Conflicts (IV) Sierra Leone Civil/Ethnic (Mandingo)Suspended (Tenuous): The Lome Agreement was signed by the warring factions on July 7, 1999, but some clashes have been reported since that time; more time is needed before a determination can be made as to whether a lasting settlement has been reached. Somalia Civil (Clans)Ongoing (Medium): While the northern regions enjoy relative tranquility, the south and central regions of Somalia continue to be torn by factional fighting among rival clans and war lords. There has been no central government since the collapse of the Barre regime in 1991. Sudan Ethnic (southern Africans)Ongoing (High): The government has made several overtures that, ostensibly, indicate it is willing to entertain the prospects of reconciliation but its actions are overshadowed by a history of unfulfilled, similar promises. Direct confrontations between government and rebel forces are largely avoided, except in regard to security of the new 1,600 km oil pipeline carrying oil from the Helig area of central Sudan to the Red Sea port. Government forces continue their strangle hold on the well-being of the south, keeping southerners in a perpetual humanitarian crisis. Togo CivilSuspended: Violent crackdown on opposition parties in 1993 forced 200,000 to flee. General Amnesty and improved conditions since 1994 have led to repatriation of almost all Togolese refugees. Uganda Ethnic (Langi and Acholi)Ongoing (Low): Continuing insurgencies involving ethnic Langi and Acholi peoples are linked to armed conflicts in neighboring Sudan, Rwanda, and Congo/Zaire. The Sudanese government has long been accused of supporting the Lord's Resistance Army and Allied Democratic Forces in reciprocity for Uganda's support for the SPLA in Sudan. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting ,unclear)

  17. Current Central and South American Conflicts Colombia CivilOngoing (High): Para-military and rebel factions continue to fight over control of the Colombian hinterland and, with it, the spoils of the very lucrative drug- trade. The regular Colombian Army can not hope to control these regions as it can not compete with the resources available to the drug lords. El Salvador CivilSuspended: Peace settlement of 1992 appears to be holding. Guatemala Civil/Ethnic (Mayans)Suspended: Armed conflict ends with a negotiated settlement in December 1996. Nicaragua CivilSuspended: Contra insurgency ends in 1990 when the Sandinista regime allows elections and turns over power to the popularly-elected officials. Peru Civil/Ethnic (Indigenous)Repressed: Peruvian armed forces offensives greatly weakened Sendero Luminoso guerrilla opposition and by mid-1997 it can no longer seriously challenge the central government. Source: Center for Systemic Peace (ongoing, suspended, repressed, no fighting,unclear)

  18. Explanations forInterstate War • Systemic Explanations • National Explanations • Dyadic Explanations • Individual Explanations

  19. Systemic Explanations • Capability Concentration – War is more likely when power concentration is high(low). • Systemic Polarity – War is more likely when system is multipolar(bipolar). • Hegemonic Stability – War is more likely when the dominant power is weak. • Long Wave – War is more likely when the global economic system is stagnating(growing).

  20. National Explanations • Power Rank – Strong states are more likely to become involved in war than weak states. • Diversionary – Politically unstable states are more likely to become involved in war than stable states. • Status Inconsistency – Status inconsistent states are more likely to become involved in war than status consistent states. • Economic Growth – Fast-growing states are more likely to become involved in war than slow-growing states.

  21. Dyadic Explanations • Power Parity – War is more likely between two states when they are approximately equal in power. • Power Transition – War is more likely between two states as they become more equal in power. • Arms Race – War is more likely between two states if they are engaged in an arms race. • Democratic Peace – War is less likely between two states if they are both democratic. • Expected Utility – War is more likely between two states if at least one state sees net gains from war. • Dyadic Threat – War is more likely between two states if both sides fear and distrust the other.

  22. Individual Explanations • Frustration-Aggression – War is more likely when leaders are frustrated. • Vulnerability – War is more likely when leaders are weak and inexperienced. • Personal Insecurity – War is more likely when leaders are low in self-esteem. • Psychopathic – War is more likely when leaders are irrational.

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