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Wind power variation: a highly variable, unreliable and unpredictable source of energy

Wind power variation: a highly variable, unreliable and unpredictable source of energy Facts and statistics from the largest wind generator in Germany : E-ON Power variation - per month distributed by E-ON E-ON wind power variation over the year (theoritical max : 7.558 MW) Installed

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Wind power variation: a highly variable, unreliable and unpredictable source of energy

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  1. Wind power variation: a highly variable, unreliableand unpredictable source of energy Facts and statistics from the largest wind generator in Germany : E-ON

  2. Power variation - per month distributed by E-ON

  3. E-ON wind power variation over the year (theoritical max : 7.558 MW) Installed 7558 MW Daily max 6234 MW Daily min 8 MW Installed capacity: 33.200MW including wind 7.558 MW (23%) Production: 271.300 MWh includ. wind 11.300 MWh (4,16%)

  4. Delivered wind power: details of variation per 15 min Gradient: 1000 MW/h

  5. 7500 MW > ½ Power: 5,1% of the time = 2,7 weeks > ¼ Puissance: 25% of the time = 13 weeks 18,5%

  6. Forecasting of wind power is hazardous January: windy season Max 80% Min 3% Accuracy of prediction : from -50% to +100%

  7. Sensitivity of windmills to grid stability and Incapacity of the grid to face windmill output variations Expansion of wind energy in Germany is not possible without a European-wide cooperation, because electrical grids in neighboring countries are affected by the instability of wind energy production in Germany. Example : Nov 4th 2006, European-wide electrical blackout (wind instability involved).

  8. Congestion of high voltage lines in Germany

  9. How many conventional plants are replaced by wind mills ? Max 10% !!!

  10. The cost of wind produced electricity in Germany • Cost of wind energy production in Germany: • 2,7 billion € for 26.000 MWh produced = 103 €/MWh • Compare with the cost of nuclear power produced in France: • Baseload  26 • 7000h/yr  32 • 5000h/yr  45 • 3000h/yr  68

  11. Wind energyproduction in France 1500 MW 737 MW Production 2006 : 985 GWh, efficiency 20% 05 06

  12. Wind energy in France: a good investment?For whom? • On-land windmills: year 1 to 10: 82 €/MWh year 10 to 15: 82 €/MWh if less than 2400 h/yr : 82 to 68 from 2400 to 2800 h/yr : 82 to 28 from 2800 to 3600 h/yr : 28 above 3600 h/yr • Outre-mer: 110 €/Mwh • Off-shore: year 1 to 10: 130 €/MWh year 10 to 20: 130 €/MWh if less than 2800 h/yr : 130 to 90 from 2800 to 3200 h/yr : 130 to 30 from 3200 àt 3900 h/yr : 30 above 3600 h/yr Tax credit on investment: 40%

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