Climate Change Advisory Committee

1. Climate Change Advisory Committee August 14, 2009

2. Welcome & Introductions

3. Agenda • Action Items: • Approval of Minutes July 17 Meeting • Approval of Voting Record July 17 Meeting • Updated Cumulative Impacts • Discussion of Establishment of Baseline and Targets • Public Comment • Lunch • Status of Climate Change Action Plan • Federal Legislative and Regulatory Update

4. Action Item – Approval of Minutes • July 17th Meeting • Questions or comments prior to action? • Motion to approve; second; vote • July 17th Voting Record • Questions or comments prior to action? • Motion to approve; second; vote

5. Revised Results for Work Plans • Residential/Commercial – • RC-5, RC-10, & RC-11 cost & cost/ton values revised (cumulative impacts analysis revised) • RC-12 – Not approved by CCAC (removed from cumulative impacts analysis) • Electricity Generation, Transmission, & Distribution (EGTD) – • E-6 cost and cost/ton values revised (cumulative impacts revised) • Waste – • W-2 – Cost & cost/ton values revised (cumulative impacts revised) • W-3 – Not approved by CCAC (non-quantified option; no change to cumulative impacts analysis) • Land Use & Transportation – • Revised emission reductions for “Federal Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards” recent action (cumulative impacts revised) • Forestry – • F-5 – revised emission reductions for “Shift to Uneven-aged Management” scenarios (no change to cumulative impacts analysis) 5

6. Comparison of Summary Table – July 17 (top row) to Revised Results – August 14 (bottom row)

7. Revised Residential/CommercialResults • RC-5 (Commissioning and Retrocommissioning PA Buildings) • Added cost and energy bill reductions from non-commonwealth buildings • Increased cost savings by $16 million in 2020; $67 million for 2009-2020 • Revised 2020 annual cost savings = $17 million ($11.2/tCO2e) • Revised 2009-2020 cumulative cost savings = $71 million ($7.4/tCO2e) • RC-10 (DSM - Natural Gas) • Revised comm. sector estimates to use levelized cost for comm. rather than resid. • Increased cost savings by $9 million in 2020; $64 million for 2009-2020 • Revised 2020 annual cost savings = $51 million ($7/tCO2e) • Revised 2009-2020 cumulative cost savings = $357 million ($9/tCO2e) • RC-11 (Conservation and Fuel switching for Heating Oil) • Revised comm. sector estimates to use levelized cost for comm. rather than resid. • No change to 2020 annual cost savings • Lowered 2009-2020 cumulative costs by $4 million • Revised 2009-2020 cumulative cost savings = $140 million ($4/tCO2e) 7

8. Revised EGTD and WasteResults • E-6 (Improve Coal-Fired Power Plant Efficiency by 5%) • Previous annual 2020 cost was calculated using cumulative emission reductions for 2010 – 2020 • Lowered costs by $74 million in 2020; $801.1 million for 2009-2020 • Revised 2020 annual cost = $8 million ($1.5/tCO2e) • Revised 2009-2020 cumulative costs = $101.9 million ($1.8/tCO2e) • W-2 (Statewide Recycling Initiative) • Revised based on Subcommittee revisions to diversion rate (42.4% in Pennsylvania by 2020) • Lowered cost savings by $34 million in 2020; $205 million for 2009-2020 • Revised 2020 annual cost savings = $41 million ($8/tCO2e) • Revised 2009-2020 cumulative cost savings = $246 million ($7/tCO2e) 8

9. Revised Land Use & TransportationResults • Recent action for “Federal Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFE Standards” • Remove double-counting of emission reductions for Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) requirements already included in baseline forecast (cumulative impacts analysis revised) • Emission reductions decrease by 11.15 MMtCO2e for 2020 • Previous 2020 annual emission reductions = 12.2 MMtCO2e (July 17 meeting) • Revised 2020 annual emission reductions = 1.05 MMtCO2e • Revised title: “Federal Vehicle GHG Emission Standards” 9

10. Revised ForestryResults • F-5 (Improved Forest Management - Shift to Uneven-aged Management Scenario) • July 17 Meeting – Cumulative emissions were also (incorrectly) shown as 2020 annual reductions. Correct 2020 annual emissions are: • Scenario 1: 1.98 MMtCO2e • Scenario 2: 1.72 MMtCO2e • Scenario 3: 1.33 MMtCO2e • Scenario 4: 1.01 MMtCO2e • Recommended Revisions to Presentation of Results: • Scenario 1: Reported emissions are included in baseline forecast • Scenarios 2-4: Revised to show incremental difference in emissions relative to scenario 1 • Revised Results now show emission reductions instead of emission increases • Scenario 2: • 2020 annual reductions = 0.26 MMtCO2e; 2009-2020 reductions = 0.82 MMtCO2e • Scenario 3: • 2020 annual reductions = 0.65 MMtCO2e; 2009-2020 reductions = 2.04 MMtCO2e • Scenario 4: • 2020 annual reductions = 0.97 MMtCO2e; 2009-2020 reductions = 3.07 MMtCO2e 10

11. PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results Note: Underlined values identify numbers that have been revised since the July 17 CCAC meeting.* Cost-effectiveness value is weighted-average (total costs are divided by total reductions) 11

12. GHG Reductions Associated with Recent State and Federal Actions 1 Mostly from Decline in Industrial Emissions 1 1 2 3 4 5 6, 7, 8 12

13. PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results 13

14. PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results 14

15. PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results 15

16. PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results 16

17. PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results 17

18. PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results 18

19. PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results 19

20. PA CCAC Work Plans – Draft Results 20

21. Baselines and Targets Discussion • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommendations: • Mid-term goal: 25% to 40% below 1990 levels by 2020 • Long-term goal: 80% to 95% below 1990 levelsby 2050 • State Climate Change Activities • 27 states have set some kind of targets • 22 states have set 2020 as target year • CCAC recommended 2020 and 2050 target years • Establishing target is necessary for action plan 21

22. Baseline & Target Discussion (cont.) • PA targets must be established at or by 9/16 meeting • Recommended Work Plans: • Production basis: 32.4% below 2000; 24.2% below 1990 (reference comparison only) • Consumption basis: 36.4% below 2000; 30.3% below 1990 (reference comparison only)

23. Public Comment

24. Lunch is provided for CCAC members only. Thank you. Lunch

25. Climate Change Action Plan • Outline of Draft Action Plan • Acknowledgements from Committee 25

26. Climate Change Action Plan • Key Dates -Timeline 9/1 Draft Action Plan (minus macroeconomic analysis) is forwarded to CCAC for review 9/4 Macroeconomic analysis is forwarded to CCAC for review 9/11 Conference call to discuss Draft Action Plan and macroeconomic analysis (pending CCAC approval) 9/16 CCAC Meeting 9/24 Minority Report required to be submitted to DEP for inclusion in Action Plan 26

27. Climate Change Action Plan • Key Dates –Timeline (continued) 10/9 Draft Action Plan delivered to General Assembly, Governor’s Office and Public 10/10 Pa. Bulletin 10/10 to 11/9 30 days for Public Comment Period 11/16 Consolidated public comments sent to CCAC 11/17 to 12/4 CCAC Comment Period (additional 15 days) 12/18 Final Action Plan 27

28. Status of Macroeconomic Analysis – Adam Rose, USC • Secured and examined all of the necessary data on mitigation/sequestration work plans • Refined REMI’s ability to evaluate cost/saving pass-throughs • Made trial runs with REMI • Began mapping work plans to REMI policy variables and parameters 28

29. Federal Legislative and Regulatory Update • New federal fuel economy standards (CAFÉ) • Joint rulemaking from DOT and EPA on May 19 • EPA granted California’s request for waiver of Clean Air Act preemption for emission standards • Decision on June 30 replaces denial of CA’s request in 2008 • PA Clean Vehicle Program adopted CA’s emission standards • Emissions cut from new vehicles by 14% from 2008 levels in 2011 • Both standards cut emissions by 30% in 2016 • Waxman-Markey Bill • American Clean Energy and Security Act 2009 • House voted 219-212 to pass bill on June 26 29

30. ADJOURN