The Democratic Peace

1. The Democratic Peace Democracy War Peace International Trade International Organizations

2. UK v. US • Similar • Cultural • Foreign policy • Legal traditions • Car Culture??? • Opposite ends of the spectrum on • gasoline tax policy • addressing climate change

3. Car culture: gasoline taxes and prices per liter in 31 countries (2004):

4. Who needs the most gasoline per capita?Urban v Rural

5. Does “need” translate into policy preference?

6. Policy outcome? • We’ve got Interests & Incentives • Now, to get the policy outcome,… • We interact interests/incentives with a domestic political institution: Malapportionment!

7. Malapportionment tends to weigh RURAL preferences more than URBAN (i.e., Proportional representation tends to weigh URBAN preferences more than RURAL) Does this have an effect on NATIONAL policy?

8. Test: • Does malapportionment affect: • Gasoline prices • Kyoto ratification

10. Kyoto Protocolto the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • Stabilize atmospheric “greenhouse” gas • 1997 (enter into force: 2005) • 2009: 187 states ratified • Commitment to reduce greenhouse gases: • carbon dioxide • methane • nitrous oxide • sulphur hexafluoride

11. Ratifiers, signers, and non

14. Which came first? • Car culture? • Malapportionment? • Once created, however, car-culture may reinforce malapportionment • Car-culture may have other effects: • Crash: • It's the sense of touch.... Any real city, you walk, you know? You brush past people. People bump into you. In L.A., nobody touches you. We're always behind this metal and glass. I think we miss that touch so much that we crash into each other just so we can feel something. • Hypothesis: car-culture exacerbates racial/ethnic tension • Operationalized: automobiles/capita  inter-ethnic/racial violent crime

15. Main take-home from last time: • What is it to explain? • to state the conditions under which it always or usually takes place (perhaps probabilistically) • The BRIDGE • The BRIDGE between historical observations and general theory is the substitution of variables for proper names and dates

16. Religion vs. Science(Faith vs. Skepticism) • RELIGION & SCIENCE both respond to mystery • The key to religion is faith • in the religious hierarchy • in the Bible • in the Koran • Clear your mind of questions; there is no “why” • The key to science is skepticism • theories must be tested, and tested, and tested • we never achieve “Truth” with a capital T • we never “prove”

17. COMPARATIVE INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS:The Politics of International Finance James Raymond Vreeland School of Foreign Service Georgetown University

18. 2008 Financial Crisis & The rise of the G20 Unipolarism is over. We live in a multipolar world.

19. The future of the IMF?...

20. Changes to Global Governance Who has the power at the IMF?

21. The IMF Executive Board Directors, dominated by Western Europeans. • Global governance is at a crossroads • G20 = arrival of the emerging markets • IMF governance is out of whack with reality

22. G20 • Calls for a reevaluation of the BWI vote shares • Why care about the G20? • Doesn’t do anything • Arbitrary membership (out of date) • Represents the arrival of the emerging markets! • More representative? • Who is the G20?

23. Who is the G20? G7 + BRIC + EU + MAKTISAS 11 down, 9 to go? NO! Only 8 to go. Only 19 countries in the G20.

24. Wrong guesses • EU • Spain, Poland, Netherlands • Europe • Switzerland, Norway • The bad guy • Iran • Large populations • Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nigeria • Big economies • Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Venzuela, Egypt,

25. Seats around the G20 table

26. Seats around the IMF table 2012

27. WEOG Presence • G20: 40% • IMF Executive Board seats: 46% • IMF Executive Board votes: 58%

28. How do they do it? • Inflated vote shares?

29. IMF vote shares have been “out of whack” • Top 5 members: • United States (16.8%) • Japan (6.0%) • Germany (5.9%) • France (4.9%) • UK (4.9%) • Other important members: • China (3.7%) • Saudi Arabia (3.2%) • Russia (2.7%) • Italy? (3.2%) • Belgium? (2.1%) • Brazil? (1.4%) • India? (1.9%) • Turkey? (0.55%)

30. Who controls the IMF? (2010) • Top 5 members: • United States (16.7%) • Japan (6.0%) • Germany (5.9%) • France (4.85%) • UK (4.85%) • Other important members: • Italy? (3.19) • Saudi Arabia? (3.2%) • Canada? (2.9%) • Russia (2.7%) • Belgium? (2.1%) • China (3.65%) • India? (1.9%) • Spain? (1.4%) • Brazil? (1.4%) • Korea? (1.3%)

31. http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/memdir/members.aspxaccessed 2 May 2012

32. New vote-shares (for 2012)??Has not happened yet! • United States: 16.48 • Japan: 6.14 • China: 6.07 • Germany: 5.31 • France: 4.02 • United Kingdom: 4.02 • Italy: 3.02 • India: 2.63 • Russia: 2.59 • Brazil: 2.22 • Canada: 2.21 • Saudi Arabia: 2.01 • Spain: 1.92 • Mexico: 1.80 • Netherlands: 1.76 • Korea: 1.73 • Australia: 1.33 • Belgium: 1.30

33. Who controls the IMF? (2010) • Top 5 members: • United States (16.75%) • Japan (6.23%) • Germany (5.81%) • France (4.29%) • UK (4.29%) • Other important members: • Italy? (3.16) • Saudi Arabia? (2.80%) • Canada? (2.56%) • Russia (2.39%) • Belgium? (1.86%) • China (3.81%) • India? (2.34%) • Spain? (1.63%) • Brazil? (1.72%) • Korea? (1.37%)

34. But real distortions also occur in the elections for the Executive Board

35. Appointed & Elected Directors • Appointed: • US, Japan, Germany, France, UK • Elected: • China, Saudi Arabia, Russia • Regionally elected (ad-hoc) • Australia • South Pacific, New Zealand, Korea, Uzbekistan • Brazil • Latin American countries • Togo • African countries • Iran • Afghanistan, Algeria, Ghana, Morocco, Pakistan, Tunisia

36. Really ad-hoc elected Directors: • Italy • Greece, Malta, Portugal, San Marino, Albania, & Timor-Leste • Belgium • Austria, Luxembourg, Belarus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Kosovo, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, & Turkey • Netherlands • Armenia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Georgia, Israel, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Romania, & Ukraine • Switzerland • Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic,Poland, Serbia, Tajikistan, & Turkmenistan

37. How do they do it? • Foreign aid?

38. Buying Bretton Woods James Raymond Vreeland Georgetown University jrv24@georgetown.edu Paper prepared for presentation at the AidData Conference, University College, Oxford, March 22-25, 2010

39. Switzerland? • New IMF member (1992) • Bloc does not have deep historical ties other than joining around the same time • Data for the entire period are available • Switzerland has added incentives • Out of the EU, out of the G20

48. The risk: Irrelevance of the IMF in a Multi-Polar world!

49. Regional Monetary Funds? Lipscy, Phillip Y. 2003. Japan's Asian Monetary Fund Proposal. Stanford Journal of East Asian Affairs 3 (1):93-104. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HyrTypTRDbk

50. Asian Monetary Fund Proposal? • Going back to the aftermath of the US/IMF bailout of Mexico in 1995: TEQUILA CRISIS • Japanese policy-thinkers/makers begin thinking about an “Asian Monetary Organization” ($20 billion) • Why? • Believed that the US would not act as vigorously in the event of a crisis in Asia • Then: East Asian Financial Crisis • http://www.xtimeline.com/timeline/Asian-Financial-Crisis