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Shifting Demographics: Mapping the World Population

Shifting Demographics: Mapping the World Population. United Nations. Hania Zlotnik Directora. World population growth: 1750-2050. Billions. 10.8 billion. 9.2 billion. 6.5 billion. 7.8 billion. 5.5 billion. 12. 2.5 billion. 2 billion. 1 billion. 120 years.

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Shifting Demographics: Mapping the World Population

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  1. Shifting Demographics:Mapping the World Population United Nations Hania ZlotnikDirectora

  2. World population growth: 1750-2050 Billions 10.8 billion 9.2 billion 6.5 billion 7.8 billion 5.5 billion 12 2.5 billion 2 billion 1 billion 120 years United Nations Population Division

  3. Growth rate, 1750-2050 Percentage 2.0 1.24 0.34 United Nations Population Division

  4. Increasing life expectancy: 1950-2050 Years 83 Northern America 78 75 World Europe Latin America 66 Africa 66 Oceanía Asia 52 United Nations Population Division

  5. Life expectancy at birth: 2005 United Nations Population Division

  6. Fertility levels: 1950-2050 Children per woman Africa Asia World 4.9 Oceanía Latin America 2.65 2.5 Europe Northern America 1.76 1.41 United Nations Population Division

  7. Children per woman: 2005 United Nations Population Division

  8. As a result of these changes: There is today great diversity in demographic trends around the world The population of some countries is decreasing…. While that of other countries is growing very fast….

  9. Population growth rate: 2000-2005 United Nations Population Division

  10. Population growth rate: 2045-2050 United Nations Population Division

  11. Population by major area Billions 5.3 3.9 2.0 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5

  12. Population percentage by major area Percentage

  13. The world is being transformed by increasing urbanization Between 1950 and 2005: The urban population increased by 2.4 billion persons, equivalent to the population of the world in 1950 Between 2005 and 2050: The urban population is expected to increase by 3.2 billion, virtually all added to urban areas in developing countries

  14. Percentage urban in 2005

  15. Percentage urban in 2030

  16. The world is also being transformed by population ageing United Nations – Population Division

  17. As the distribution by age changes, the ratio of “workers” y to “dependants” also changes Dependants: Children (0-14) y older persons (aged 65 or over) Workers: Persons aged 15 to 64 Support ratio: Workers / Dependants

  18. Demographic transition Drop in fertility levels Stability Mortality drops and fertility stabilizes Reduction in infant mortality United Nations – Population Division

  19. Support ratio: 1950-2050 Europe Asia World Northern America Latin America Oceania Africa Source: United Nations Population Division

  20. Median age, 2005

  21. Median age in 2050

  22. Increase of number of migrants by income group Millions

  23. Population of working age in developed countries with and without migration With migration 104 million Without migration

  24. Number of persons aged 15 to 39 (billions) 2.1 1.9 0.42 0.37

  25. Annual number of migrants needed to maintain population aged 15 to 64 constant Net number of migrants (thousands)

  26. Conclusions • The population will increase markedly in Africa and Asia. It will likely decrease in Europe. • Africa and Asia will urbanize rapidly in the future • Population ageing is advanced in Europe and Northern America. Support ratios will drop significantly in Europe. • Population ageing will advance quickly in Asia and Latin America, with support ratios beginning to drop • Africa will remain relatively young.

  27. Conclusions • Over the next decades, the younger population of developed countries will decrease while that in developing countries will continue to grow • The economic and demographic imbalances between developed and developing countries will continue to fuel migration

  28. Population DivisionUnited Nations www.unpopulation.org For information relating to the High-level Dialogue www.unmigration.org United Nations Population Division

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