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An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington State

An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington State. Marketa McGuire Elsner University of Washington JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering In cooperation with:

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An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington State

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  1. An integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on Washington State Marketa McGuire Elsner University of Washington JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering In cooperation with: Jeremy S. Littell, Edward L. Miles, Dennis P. Lettenmaier March 5, 2008 Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop 2008 Climate science in the public interest

  2. Outline • Background of WA State climate impacts assessment • Project framework (sneak preview of results) • Project objectives • Relationship between impacts assessment another state climate change initiative

  3. Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment Funding Source: Clean Air/Clean Fuels House Bill 1303 Answers to FAQ regarding HB 1303 from the Washington State Legislature website: http://apps.leg.wa.gov/billinfo/default.aspx

  4. HB 1303 Background • Legislation signed by Washington Governor in Spring 2007 • Bill’s goal is to reduce the state’s dependence on fossil fuels and to build a clean energy economy via: • Policies and incentive programs to help businesses, consumers, and farmers have access to cleaner fuels • Impacts analysis and emission accounting procedures that prepare Washington to respond and prosper as climate changes

  5. Infrastructure Human Health Agriculture/Economics Water Resources A comprehensive state climate change assessment that includes the impacts of global warming Coasts Energy Forest Resources Salmon Adaptation / Legal Barriers

  6. Project Domain

  7. Conceptual Approach to Assessment • Integrated assessment of regional climate impacts: • The study of how climate, natural resources, and human socioeconomic systems affect each other Source: Snover et al. (2002). Integrating Natural and Social Science for Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest. Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference. Louisiana, May 2002.

  8. Goals of the Impacts Assessment • Evaluate impacts of climate change into the next century • use IPCC 2007 climate scenarios • show regional impacts and areas of high and low sensitivity to climate change • characterize barriers to adaptation to these impacts (e.g., legal, institutional) with help from UW Law School • provide tools for policy makers and user groups • collaborate with Governor’s Climate Change Challenge team To be completed December 2008

  9. Data Needs to Support a 21st Century Planning Framework Incorporating Climate Information and Uncertainty Approach provides ensemble of variables that can be used to evaluate impacts of climate change 2 Emissions Scenarios 20 GCMs 2 Downscaling Approaches X X IPCC Climate Scenarios • Precipitation • Air Temperature • Streamflow • Soil Moisture • PET • VPD • And more! Hydrology Modeling

  10. Projected Increases in PNW Temperature +5.9ºF (2.8-9.7ºF) +3.5ºF (1.6-5.2ºF) 7.2°F °C +2.2ºF (1.1-3.4ºF) 3.6°F 0°F Changes relative to 1970-1999 14.4°F 10.8°F

  11. Projected Increases in PNW Precipitation

  12. Sector Focus Points • Hydrology/Water Resources • Impacts to rivers and response of state’s physical water management infrastructure • Produce future hydrologic scenarios at over 200 locations in the Pacific Northwest (related project) • Energy • Impacts to hydropower production (Columbia River) and regional heating & cooling degree days • Salmon • Productivity of State’s streams for salmonids • Regions and conditions under which salmonid habitat is most vulnerable

  13. Sector Focus Points • Agriculture/Economics • Impacts on productivity and sustainability of State’s agriculture, focusing on key crops (tree fruits, grapes, potatoes) • Forests • Impacts to growth and productivity of forests and their susceptibility to fire and insect disturbance • Coasts • Impacts of sea level rise on structures (inundation and flooding) • Changes in erosion on bluffs, spits, ocean beaches

  14. Sector Focus Points • Infrastructure • Impacts on vulnerable elements of civil infrastructure (stormwater systems) • Consider precipitation variability and flood frequency/magnitude • Health • Impacts of ozone and particulate matter on childhood asthma • Heat stress and potential increases in mortality

  15. Relationship between Impacts Assessment and Washington State Climate Initiative

  16. Evaluate current and proposed actions to reduce CO2 emissions • Make recommendations on improved preparedness and adaptation Draft recommendations Complete Final report February2008

  17. Relationship between PAWGs and HB1303 Sectors

  18. Highlights • Washington State supports climate change study and linkages between science and decision-making. • Integrated assessment approach which connects climate predictions to hydrology and other impact sectors.

  19. More information on the Climate Impacts Group or WA State Climate Impacts Assessment The Climate Impacts Group www.cses.washington.ed/cig Marketa McGuire Elsner mmcguire@u.washington.edu Climate science in the public interest

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