Higher Education: Trends and Challenges by Dr. Jarl Bengtsson

1. Higher Education: Trends and Challenges by Dr. Jarl Bengtsson Counsellor and Head of the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI), OECD

2. OECD 30 countries covering the 3 main geo-economic parts of the world, i.e. EU, NAFTA, and the Pacific; • E in OECD means economics not education; • Work on education at OECD horizontally linked to the economy, labour market, science and technology • Education priority for OECD; • OECD Secretary-General Mr. D. Johnston “Education should be the priority of priorities”; • Education priorities for OECD Ministers of Education: • 1996 Lifelong learning for all • 2001 Investment in competencies for all 1

3. Presentation is set out in three parts • Higher education -- some basic trends • Challenges for higher education in the new millenium • After the Humboldt university tradition: what is next? 2

4. Higher Education - Some Basic Trends • OECD Education at a Glance: the reference for international comparison • input data • process data • output data 3

5. Participation in Higher Education OECD countries • 1 in 4 young people enter higher education • 20% growth 1990-97 in all but 5 OECD countries • in 8 countries more than 50% • (Data from Education at a Glance 2000, OECD) 4

6. Success and failure in higher education • On average, 1/3 of all entrants leave without completing a degree • Great variations between countries: • Japan, UK: 80-100% complete courses • U.S. Germany: 60-80% • France, Portugal, Turkey: 40-60% • Italy: 20-40% 5

7. Funding and spending in education general • in general most public but increasingly private funding • 77: public • 23% private • public expenditure on education grew faster than GDP in most OECD countries during the 90s from 5.2% to 5.8% of GDP 6

8. Spending on higher education grew fastest during 90s but enrolment even more so: • spending growth on average 28% • but enrolments increased by 40% 7

9. Average spending per student in US dollars: • Early childhood………………..3463 • Primary………………………..3851 • Lower secondary……………….4791 • Upper secondary………………..5790 • Tertiary (non university)………..7295 • University……………………….8434 • Denmark - 1.5 more on higher education than on primary; the US, Mexico, Australia, and Ireland 3 times more. 8

10. Returns to higher education • great individual returns “ University premium” ranging from 20-40% (Australia, Denmark and Sweden) to 80-100% (Portugal and USA) • but greater social returns to secondary education - social returns (i.e. better health, lower crime, economic growth and social cohesion) are generally higher from upper secondary education than university education* • *Human Capital Investment, OECD, 1998 9

11. The global picture of higher education • Gross enrolment 1990s* • secondary education in developing countries 54% • secondary education in OECD countries 100% • tertiary level in developing countries 9% • tertiary level in OECD countries 64% • *Human development Report 2001, UNDP 10

12. High quality /quantity of secondary education needed for increasing enrolment in higher education - ex. Singapore, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong • Importance of SMT subjects (science, maths, technology) i.e. four “ tigers” 3 million students of which 1 million in SMT • Where to find resources to finance campus-based higher education in less developed countries? (2-3% of age cohort to 25-30% of age cohort) 11

13. The advantages of international comparisons in education • move the debate towards an assessment of outcomes rather than inputs like education budgets • provide benchmarking measures for counties ‘ own progress and in comparasion to others 12

14. Challenges for higher education in the new millenium • The emerging knowledge economy • different interpretations of new economy • casino • new synergy; old and new economics • knowledge-based economy • knowledge the driving force in the new economy (OECD growth project) • huge returns to its investment, particularly if coupled to take full advantage of ICT 13

15. The emerging knowledge economy (continued) • Private sector competition from access to new technology through best trained work force to competition in knowledge production, mediation and use. • Competition in explicit and tacit knowledge • A new dilemma between sharing knowledge and intellectual property rights • The bottom line - university knowledge monopoly coming to an end. 14

16. Internationalisation of higher education and the penetration of ICT • trade in education services WTO/OECD • e-learning and an emerging international market of higher education • quality control and assessment in the new market • OECD ongoing work through fora involving four stakeholders: government; university; private sector; and students 15

17. Demographic development and the imperative of lifelong learning in higher education • OECD countries ageing population, but produce 70% of world goods and services with 16% of world population • age structure of population: 1950-2050*: • Elderly share: 1950 2050 • OECD 8% 25-30% • Developing countries 0.3% 15% • Youth share: 1950 2050 • OECD 27% 15% • Developing countries 38% 20% • *UN Population Prospects 1050-2050, UN, 1998) 16

18. Demographic development and the imperative of lifelong learning in higher education (continued) • 2025 most students in higher education above 25 years of age • major challenge for higher education in lifelong learning 17

19. Partnership • Difference in R&D spending public/private sectors • 75% private • 25% public • The need for partnership in research • The need for links between research and teaching also through partnerships 18

20. After the Humboldt university tradition, what is next? • 800 years of history and experience • From teaching university through research university to a new challenge of services to society • the teaching university - young students of school age, main function conservative, to safeguard received knowledge and provide elite training, limited number subjects • the research university - the 19th century scientific revolution, mature student, unlimited search for truth in many subjects. The Humboldt tradition is born • the addition of the objective of providing services to society in second part of the 20th century 19

21. The critical issue of university governance - New partners of the Board • Academic freedom and academic responsibility - the need for a new balance • 800 years thanks to support from society • “If institutional autonomy and academic freedom are regarded as absolute requirements, then the future is hopeless”.* • * Professor Sheldon Rothblatt, University of California, Berkeley and Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, “ Academic Freedom and Institutional Autonomy in Historical Perspective, 1999 20

22. Towards a new balance between freedom and responsibility - two principles: • First, ease the internal differences between disciplinary have and have-nots. Avoid that the house will be ruinously divided; • Second, the best guarantee of institutional initiative and freedom is a healthy engagement with all parts of society 21

23. What is next? Two key forces shaping future higher education: • Changing demand • from teaching to learning; • from young students to mature students • from long to many shorter courses over the individuals lifecycle • from national to international markets for higher education • The knowledge economy • competition in knowledge production and mediation • the private sector university initiative with ambition of high quality but less costly • from mode 1 to mode 2 type of research 22

24. Who will survive and how? • Elite universities • the need for a niche along the three key objectives, teaching, research and services • from knowledge monopoly and privileges to knowledge sharing and actions with value-added ethical responsibility 23