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Hurricane Forecast Model

Hurricane Forecast Model. Enron Email Corpus. LCDR Matt Tabar LCDR William Evans. Outline. History of ENRON Email Corpus Makeup and Generation Assumptions Graph construction Time-series analysis. BLUF. Divided the network into time periods

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Hurricane Forecast Model

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  1. Hurricane ForecastModel

  2. Enron Email Corpus LCDR Matt TabarLCDR William Evans

  3. Outline • History of ENRON • Email Corpus • Makeup and Generation • Assumptions • Graph construction • Time-series analysis

  4. BLUF • Divided the network into time periods • Examined the communication between 7 executives • Compared the strength of the communications by max-flow interdiction (four ways)

  5. ENRON Brief History • 1932 - Northern Natural Gas Company, OK • 1979 - Reorganized as InterNorth • 1985 • Bought Houston Natural Gas • Moved to Houston, changed name to ENRON • Lied, cheated, swindled • Sept. 9, 2001 - Scandal breaks out • Dec. 1, 2001 - Filed for bankruptcy

  6. How bad was it? • ENRON – CalPERS venture • Joint Energy Development Investments – JEDI • Set up Chewco Investments Ltd. to buy it • ENRON has a positive bottom line

  7. The (really) bottom line

  8. Cast of Characters – The 7 • Kenneth.Lay@Enron.com Chairman, CEO • Jeffrey.Skilling@Enron.com Pres., COO, CEO • Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com CFO • Richard.Causey@Enron.com CAO • Greg.Whalley@Enron.com Pres., COO • Jeffrey.McMahon@Enron.com CFO • Raymond.Bowen@Enron.com CFO

  9. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Lay Lay 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B

  10. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B

  11. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Fastow 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B

  12. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Fastow Causey 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B

  13. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Whalley Fastow Causey 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B

  14. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Whalley Fastow McMahon Causey 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B

  15. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay Skilling Lay Whalley Fastow McMahon Bowen Causey 1 2 3 4 5 6 1999 2000 2001 2002 B

  16. Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails

  17. Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails 76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external)

  18. Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails 76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479 Unique From: addresses

  19. Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails 76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479 Unique From: addresses 5,703 Unique internal addresses

  20. Corpus Makeup 490,209 Emails 76,312 Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479 Unique From: addresses 5,703 Unique internal addresses 150 Employee’s email folders

  21. Corpus Makeup Message-ID: <3513531.1075852348029.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 17:39:14 -0700 (PDT) From: pr <.palmer@enron.com> To: kenneth.lay@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, j..kean@enron.com, mark.koenig@enron.com, paula.rieker@enron.com, karen.denne@enron.com Subject: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run. Message-ID: <29382990.1075852344558.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2001 09:13:59 -0700 (PDT) From: karen.denne@enron.com To: j..kean@enron.com, pr <.palmer@enron.com>, mark.koenig@enron.com, jeffrey.mcmahon@enron.com, rex.rogers@enron.com, ben.glisan@enron.com, tim.despain@enron.com, ken.lay-@enron.com Cc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com Bcc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com Subject: Saturday Articles Enron taps credit line; stock slides Message-ID: <10795837.1075852348240.JavaMail.evans@thyme> Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 02:06:41 -0700 (PDT) From: john.sherriff@enron.com To: ken.lay-.chairman.of.the.board@enron.com Cc: mark.frevert@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, london.brown@enron.com, eric.shaw@enron.com, lloyd.wantschek@enron.com, john.sherriff@enron.com Subject: Turkish industrialist NuriCoalkoglu Ken I understand a Turkish industrialist named Nuri?olakogluhas been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest. Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector.

  22. Assumptions • Strength of relationship based on email • Not all email is created equal • There are additional interesting people • Likely missing emails

  23. Graph Construction Kaymal-2 Kaymal-1 Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm

  24. Graph Construction Kaymal-2 Kaymal-1 Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm

  25. Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm

  26. Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm

  27. Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm

  28. Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml Ramert Schramm

  29. Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml

  30. Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Dunham Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml

  31. Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml

  32. Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Young Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Treml

  33. Graph Construction Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann

  34. Graph Construction 2001 Jan-Jun 2000 1999 2002 2001 Oct-Dec 2001 Jul-Sep

  35. Period Distribution

  36. Graph Analysis Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann

  37. Graph Analysis Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann

  38. Graph Analysis Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann

  39. Graph Analysis Kaymal Koffi Burton Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann

  40. Greg.Whalley@Enron.com

  41. Kenneth.Lay@Enron.com

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