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CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR THE CANADIAN ENERGY SECTOR Roger Street Monirul Mirza

PROGRAM ON ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP JANUARY 22-24, 2003. CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR THE CANADIAN ENERGY SECTOR Roger Street Monirul Mirza. MAJOR OBJECTIVES. To develop nationally consistent set of historical and future climate scenarios for the energy sector

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CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR THE CANADIAN ENERGY SECTOR Roger Street Monirul Mirza

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  1. PROGRAM ON ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT WORKSHOP JANUARY 22-24, 2003 CLIMATE SCENARIOS FOR THE CANADIAN ENERGY SECTOR Roger Street Monirul Mirza

  2. MAJOR OBJECTIVES • To develop nationally consistent set of historical and future climate scenarios for the energy sector • To provide guidance to impact researchers/users • Revision of the energy sector chapter of the Canada Country Study

  3. Major Deliverables • Statement of energy sector historical and future scenarios needs through a web workshop • Development of historical and future climate scenarios • Energy sector climate impact report • Examination of the conclusions of the Canada Country Study Energy Chapter • On-going guidance on the scenarios

  4. Web-Workshop for Scenarios Needs assessment • A Web-Workshop organized during 11-14 December, 2001 • Comprised of five sessions –four main sessions and the concluding session • 60 stakeholders registered • Government (75%), Industry (12%), Consultants (12%) and Academia (1%)

  5. Session I: State of Art Techniques for Scenarios Construction Principal Focus: • Sources of the GCM data • How scenarios are constructed from GCMs • Downscaling techniques • Uncertainties in GCM Scenarios • Construction of Historical Scenarios • Interpretation and Usefulness of Scenarios

  6. Session I-Issues Raised • Access to Climate Scenarios • Utility of Downscaling Techniques • The Need for Multiple Scenarios • Challenge of Incorporating Extreme Weather Events into Scenarios • Temporal and Spatial scale Issues

  7. Session II-Climate Change Scenarios • The Types of Scenarios • Spatial and Temporal aspect of the scenarios • Experience of use of scenarios in the Energy Sector

  8. Session II-Issues Raised • Use of scenarios in risk management • Estimation of tolerable risk • Cascading effect of uncertainties • Use of current information for risk management

  9. Session III-Scenarios for the Energy Sector • Requirement of scenarios for the energy sector (fossil and renewable)

  10. Session III-Issues Raised • Understanding adaptive capacities • Non uniform scenarios requirement for various stakeholders • Use of Scarce modelling resources • Supply of unnecessary information • Engage key people in the industry to identify their needs

  11. Session IV-Vulnerabilities and Adaptation • Vulnerabilities to climate change • Past adaptation measures incorporated in the energy sector • Effectiveness of the past adaptation measures • Future Adaptation measures and strategies

  12. Session IV-Issues Raised • Planning of the energy system to reduce vulnerability, damage and increase resiliency • Adaptability of the Canadian Energy Sector • Temporal and Spatial scale scenarios may not to attract stakeholders

  13. Session V-Conclusions • Energy sector demonstrated interest in scenarios of extremes and return periods • Multiple scenarios are useful to capture uncertainties and tolerable risk • More interactions between modellers and stakeholders

  14. Session V-Conclusions • Engagement of stakeholders is vital for identifying research requirements for scenarios, impacts and adaptation • Alternative method of engagement must be sought

  15. Summary of Climate Scenario Requirements

  16. Climate Impact Report-Approaches • Vulnerability and Adaptation Approach • Review of the Canada Country Study 1998-Energy Chapter • Identification of gaps in Knowledge and approach • Updated knowledge/information on vulnerability, impact and adaptation (VIA) • A Framework of VIA for the Energy Sector

  17. Climate Impact Report Section I: Executive Summary Section II: Introduction Draws information from- -PERD proposal -Canada Country Study Energy Chapter -IPCC TAR -Web Workshop Synthesis

  18. Climate Impact Report Section III: Historical & Future Climate Change • Historical Climate Variability • Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, sea level rise and lake water level • Climate Change Scenarios • Extreme Events-Historical & Future

  19. Climate Impact Report Section IV: Canada Country Study-Identifying Gaps in VIA • Impacts on Fossil and Renewable Energy • Gaps in Vulnerability Impact and Adaptation

  20. Climate Impact Report Section V: Canadian Energy Sector-Climate Variability and Change and Adaptation • Three Case Studies on vulnerability and adaptation • Attributes of climate vulnerability • Present barriers of adaptation and future potentiality • Vulnerability and adaptation framework

  21. Development of Historical Scenarios • Collection of Data from the Meteorological Services, Canada • The data include: -Temperature, precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, etc. • Development of a software STECA (Statistical Tool for Extreme Climate Analyses)

  22. Main Features of STECA • Apreprocessing facility for extraction of extreme value series • A large number of probability distributions: • Normal • Gumbel • Pearson Type 3 • Weibull • Log-Pearson Type 3 • Log-normal

  23. Main Features of STECA • Two different parameter estimation methods: • Method of moments • Method of L-moments (probability weighted moments) • Validation tests: • Mann-Kendall test • Mann-Whitney U test • Box Plot • Randomness Test • Serial Correlation

  24. Main Features of STECA • Two non-parametric goodness-of-fit statistics: • Kolmogorov-Smirnov • Probability plot correlation coefficient (PPCC) • Climatic parameter computation routines: • Degree Days • Heat Index • Wind Chill • Heat / Cold Wave

  25. SAMPLE STECA Menus

  26. SAMPLE STECA Menus

  27. Historical Scenario Construction • Canadian Daily Climate Data (CDCD) Collected • Data include: -Temperature -precipitation -wind speed -Relative Humidity • 7848 Stations Data Extracted

  28. Data Extraction for Analysis • 466 stations extracted as class A station • WMO 3/5 rules were applied -Not more than 5 total and 3 consecutive missing days in a month -For a total value, no missing values are allowed

  29. Historical Climate Products • General statistics • Extreme values • Return periods of annual max. and min • Heating and cooling degree days • Climate normals for 1951-1980 and 1961-1990

  30. Historical Climate Products • Heat Index • Windchill • Frequency analysis of Heat Index and Windchill • Percentiles • Heat wave and cold wave

  31. SAMPLE OUTPUT FILE

  32. SAMPLE OUTPUT FILE-MAX TEMP-GUMBEL METHOD

  33. Future Directions • Making Available Historical Climate Scenarios in the CCIS’ Website • Training Workshop • Energy Sector Climate Impact Report • Release of the STECA Software • Heating and Cooling degree days • Extremes

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