Our Energy Future …

1. Our Energy Future … Robert Rosner Director Argonne National Laboratory Climate Change Forum #4: “How can we meet our future energy needs without jeopardizing our planet’s health?” Chicago Cultural Center June 4, 2006

2. R.E. Smalley’s view of Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for the next 50 years … • ENERGY • WATER • FOOD • ENVIRONMENT • POVERTY • TERRORISM & WAR • DISEASE • EDUCATION • DEMOCRACY • POPULATION … that was the view in 2005 … and it’s much more sobering today

3. Millions of Barrels per day (“Oil Equivalent”) 300 200 100 0 1860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100 … that was the view of 2005 - and it’s much more sobering today, only one year later … • Population growth projections • 2004: ~ 6.5 billion people • 2050: ~ 10 billion people • Energy demand growth • Population increase • Increased expectations Source: John F. Bookout (President, Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy” International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985. Episodes, vol. 12, 257-262 (1989).

4. What I will talk about … • Some numbers, to put things into context … • An overview of where we are heading … • Future energy demands/supply requirements • Future supply constraints • Some comments on alternative future energy ‘suppliers’

5. … but first, some ‘truth in advertising’! • I’m the director of Argonne National Laboratory • Argonne is heavily involved in many aspects of the energy problem, such as research on • Various types of batteries, from Li-ion to Hydrogen fuel cells • Biofuels • Hydrogen as a transport fuel • Clean diesel engines • Hybrid power trains • Nuclear energy (fuels, reprocessing, reactor design, nonproliferation, …) • Econometric modeling of various energy technologies • This means that I will have to be especially vigilant to avoid presenting an ‘informacial’ to you!! • Remember: ‘energy’ is an extremely contentious topics • Extensive disputes about costs, safety, environmental impacts, … • Advocates dominate discussions - ‘honest brokers’ are few and far between …

6. So: let’s start by talking numbers … first, electricity • US energy needs break down into: • Electricity generation: ~ 40% • Transport (cars, …): ~ 30% • Heat: ~ 30% • Let’s assume that a ‘typical’ abode in the US requires ~ 5 kW on average (including transmission losses, …); the average person uses ~ 1.4kW • Heating/cooling ~ 42%; lighting/appliances ~ 36%; water heating ~ 14%; refrigeration ~ 9% • A city of 1,000,000 requires ~1.4 GW of power • Large stationary power plants typically produce 1-2 GW: so 1,000,000 people need ~ 1-2 large power plants • “Perfect” solar: ~1 kW/sq.meter, 8 hrs/day -> 1.7 sq. km area • Wind: 1 MW/turbine -> 1,400 turbines

7. So: let’s start by talking numbers … second, transport • Average American uses 500 gallons of gasoline/year • The energy contents of 500 gallons of gasoline is equivalent to • ~ 3 short tons of coal • ~ 60,000 cubic feet of natural gas • ~ 450 gallons of diesel fuel • ~ 991 gallons of methanol • ~ 1925 gallons of liquid hydrogen gas(H2 provides 33.33 kW-hr/kg; liquid H2 at -253 C has an energy density of 2.36 kW-hr/liter) • ~ 6060 gallons of 30 Mpa high-pressure hydrogen gas (H2 has an energy density of 0.75 kW-hr/liter) • What does it take to produce (for example) enough hydrogen to replace gasoline? • ~ 240 GW, using high-temperature electrolysis or thermochemical H2O splitting -- thus, hundreds of (nuclear) powerplants, or hundreds of thousands of MW wind turbines, or … • 500 gallons of gasoline ~ 62 million Btu • ~ 18,171 kW-hr (1 kw-hr = 3,412 Btu)

8. A summary overview of ‘today’ and ‘tomorrow’ … R.E. Smalley’s conjecture for 2050… Current energy sources … 14.5 Terawatts 220 M BOE/day 30 -- 60 Terawatts 450 – 900 MBOE/day

9. The point is … • Gasoline (and oil products in general) are today amazingly efficient in packaging energy in an • easily obtained and • easily transportable way • All of the alternatives are burdened with relative disadvantages, which come in many flavors … • Environmentally not benign • Costly • Inefficient, or ineffective • … • These disadvantages are the fundamental reason that oil still dominates …

10. What are some of the considerations for future energy options? • Environmental impacts/considerations • Global warming: We have no choice but to implement primary energy sources that do not continue to impact the Earth’s atmosphere • Carbon-based fuels, with sequestration or based on renewables • Non-carbon based energy sources • Minimization of toxic waste streams • Land use policies • Food vs power • Conflicting land/water uses • Base power versus motive power versus localized power • Power for transport vs. power for stationary applications • Centralized power production vs. distributed power production • Costs • True costs include environmental costs and life cycle costs … • Who pays for cleaning up our atmosphere? Decommissioning power plants? What are the hidden subsidies?

11. What ARE some of the future energy supply options?

12. How will we get there? • Research!!!!! • Decrease costs, for example, via • Cheaper photovoltaics (factor of 10?) • More efficient catalytic production of ethanol/methanol • Increase power transmission efficiency • Cheaper superconducting power cables • Improved designs for thermal and fast spectrum nuclear reactors • Invent new processes, for example, • Using sunlight to produce H2 from water • Finding ways to store H2 more efficiently • Inventing new catalytic methods for cheaper fuel cells • Strengthen the R&D infrastructure in the US!! • Science/technology must again be viewed as inspiring subjects … • Education improvements must be complemented by a smarter visa system … • Stick to it!!! • ‘Getting there’ won’t happen if we’re not steadfast …

13. … which brings us to questions and discussion