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BY: MIKE HANNON CONSULTANT & PARTNER MHM PARTNERSHIP LLP 2 BOSWELL PARK

EMERGING CEE WIND TURBINE AND COMPONENT SUPPLY CHAIN PROSPECTS 2010-2013 – EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE. BY: MIKE HANNON CONSULTANT & PARTNER MHM PARTNERSHIP LLP 2 BOSWELL PARK AYR KA7 1NP SCOTLAND TEL: INT + 44 1292 263625 WEB: WWW.MHM.INFO. MHM

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BY: MIKE HANNON CONSULTANT & PARTNER MHM PARTNERSHIP LLP 2 BOSWELL PARK

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  1. EMERGING CEE WIND TURBINE AND COMPONENT SUPPLY CHAIN PROSPECTS 2010-2013 – EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE BY: MIKE HANNON CONSULTANT & PARTNER MHM PARTNERSHIP LLP 2 BOSWELL PARK AYR KA7 1NP SCOTLAND TEL: INT + 44 1292 263625 WEB: WWW.MHM.INFO MHM www.mhm.info

  2. ENERGY PROVIDERS & DEVELOPERS – DEVELOPING RENEWABLES TECHNOLOGIES PORTFOLIOS MHM www.mhm.info

  3. MAJOR EUROPEAN NACELLE ASSEMBLY – WIND TURBINES IN-HOUSE TOP 15 IN-HOUSE OTHER OUTSOURCED LARGE OUTSOURCED SMALL + + + • UK/POLAND INWARD • INVESTMENT ADDS • SIGNIFICANTLY - • MITSUBISHI (£100M) • ... ROMANIA NEXT? • POSSIBLE: • ... SINOVEL, GOLDWIND, • DONGFANG, ...?? + + + + + + DEVELOPING DEMAND – LITTLE INFRASTRUCTURE SOURCE : ‘MHM NACELLE MULTICLIENT’

  4. MAJOR EUROPEAN ELECTRONICS CONTROL SYSTEMS – WIND TURBINES IN-HOUSE TOP 15 IN-HOUSE OTHER OUTSOURCED LARGE OUTSOURCED SMALL + + HUGE R&D OPPORTUNITY + + + • CABLE HARNESS SUPPLIED • FROM ASIA/EUROPE • ... CAPACITY EXISTS IN • ROMANIA • SIGNIFICANT CONTROL • SYSTEM R&D/ • MANUFACTURE OPPORTUNITY • - AS YET FRAMENGTED + + + + + + + DEVELOPING DEMAND – LITTLE INFRASTRUCTURE SOURCE : ‘MHM WT ELECTRONICS MULTICLIENT’

  5. MAJOR EUROPEAN BLADES MANUFACTURE – WIND TURBINES IN-HOUSE TOP 15 IN-HOUSE OTHER OUTSOURCED LARGE OUTSOURCED SMALL + + + + + + + + • POLAND AND UK MAJOR • GROWTH DEVELOPMENT • ... ALSO SOON ROMANIA + + + + + + + + + + + DEVELOPING DEMAND – LITTLE INFRASTRUCTURE SOURCE : ‘MHM BLADES MULTICLIENT’

  6. MAJOR EUROPEAN TOWERS MANUFACTURE – WIND TURBINES IN-HOUSE BIG TOWERS DISTRIBUTED IN-HOUSE TOP 15 IN-HOUSE OTHER OUTSOURCED LARGE OUTSOURCED SMALL + + + + + + + + • EVERY PLAYER OUTSOURCES • SOME TOWERS • DISTRIBUTED TOWER • MANUFACTURE – ACROSS • EUROPE • ... ROMANIA STARTING + + + + + + + + + + + + + DEVELOPING DEMAND – LITTLE INFRASTRUCTURE SOURCE : ‘MHM TOWERS MULTICLIENT’

  7. MAJOR CEE COUNTRIES SECTOR WEIGHTED MONTHLY LABOUR COSTS 2007-2011 EURO MHM www.mhm.info

  8. WIND TURBINE - INTEGRATED OUTSOURCING (GLOBAL SHARE) + TURBOWINDS THE FUTURE MODEL FOR MOST – GAMESA MODEL DECLINES + NOW NEW CHINESE SINOVEL, DONGFANG, GUPT AND OTHERS VIEWING EUROPE + OEM MARKET PRESSURE TOWARDS WINDFARM COMMISSIONING MHM www.mhm.info

  9. CHANGING WIND TECHNOLOGY ISSUES – ENERGY PROVIDERS & DEVELOPERS* • MHM IS WORKING WITH ENERGY PROVIDERS/DEVELOPERS AND COMPONENT SUPPLIERS FOR: • KEY ISSUES – WIDEST APPEAL • OFFSHORE TECHNOLOGY – REFERENCE DESIGN, OPPORTUNITY (TO SPEED TECHNOLOGY • FASTER) • NEW TURBINE DESIGNS – VERTICAL AXIS, JET ENGINE, ... (RISK TO CURRENT PROVIDERS) • MANY INTERESTED IN: • UPSCALING • GEARLESS TURBINES – VARIOUS OFFERINGS TODAY • SMALLER PARTS (TRANSPORT) • GRID CONNECTIN (OFFSHORE) • ALSO OF INTEREST: GREATER RELIABILITY, BLADE OPTIMISATION, LOW WIND • SPEED OPERATION, OTHER • *PARTIAL LIST - ‘MHM GREENTECH’ STUDY OF ENERGY PROVIDERS/DEVELOPERS MHM www.mhm.info

  10. GLOBAL WIND TURBINE OEM MARKET SHARE 2009 – TOP 12 • EUROPEAN/US PLAYERS LOSING IN • CHINA MARKET – MANY OTHER • CHINESE - MINYANG, WINDEY, • SEWIND, XEMC, CSIC, COMING ... • ... ACCIONA DROPS OUT OF • TOP 12 • CHINA PRODUCTION SOON TO BE • GLOBAL LOW-COST BASE, HUGE • INTERNAL DEMAND • ... BLADES/ROTORS • ... GENERATORS • ... TOWERS • ... GEARBOXES • MARKET SHARE IS KEY OUTSOURCING • METRIC • ... NO OEM HOLDS C. 30% MHM www.mhm.info SOURCE : MHM WT PROGRAMME

  11. HUGE OPPORTUNITY : THE DECLINE OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION – 2010 ONWARDS VERTICAL INTEGRATION EXAMPLE EG GAMESA (MOSTLY) TODAY CORE TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPERS CORE TECHNOLOGY AEROFOIL MARKETERS – CONTROL MARKET ACCESS WIND FARM MARKETING SPECIALIST R&D – GEARLESS, OFFSHORE, PORTABILITY, UPSCALING, LOW WIND, BLADE YIELD, SMARTGRID SYSTEM R&D DESIGN HOUSES MATERIALS PRODUCERS STEELS, COMPOSITES, ADHESIVES, ADDITIVES, COATINGS/TAPES/CORROSION, CONCRETE MATERIALS COMPONENT PRODUCERS GEARBOXES, BLADES/ROTOR, CONTROLS/ BEARINGS, GENERATORS, CASTINGS, TOWERS, CABLING, SUB-STATIONS/GRID ACCESS, SAFETY WALK COMPONENTS SUBCONTRACTORS/ OEM TURBINE ASSEMBLY POWER STATION PROVIDERS/ OPERATORS WIND FARM ERECTION, REPAIR & MAINTENANCE = = HORIZONTAL SPECIALISATION TREND 2010-2030

  12. CONCLUSIONS OPPORTUNITY : POLAND AND OTHER CEE COUNTRIES • EU POLICY SHOULD ENCOURAGE POLAND/OTHER CEE TO COMPETE WITH CHINA: • ACCELERATING TREND TO POLISH WIND TURBINE COMPONENT OUTSOURCING: • ... OUTSOURCING INCREASES AS NO WIND TURBINE SUPPLIERS WITH DOMINANT • SHARE (BENEFITS POLAND) • ... TOP WIND TURBINE OEMS CURRENTLY VIEWING INCREASED OUTSOURCING • TO REDUCE COSTS • ... OUTSOURCING TO INCREASE IN LOW-COST AND DIFFICULT TO ACCESS REGIONS • (SCOTLAND/CEE/INDIA/ CHINA) • ... POLAND’S INDIGENOUS WIND ENERGY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING • (BIGGEST IN CEE) • ... ALREADY SIGNIFICANT OUTSOURCED BLADES, ELECTRONICS CONTROLS AND • TOWERS DEVELOPMENTS IN POLAND – MUCH MORE COMING • ... ALSO CZECH REPUBLIC, HUNGARY AND OTHERS BUT SMALLER • ... WIND TURBINE OEMS SLOWER TO MOVE THAN SUPPLIERS • COMBINATION OF GERMAN EXPERTISE AND OVER-THE-BORDER POLAND LOW COSTS • HARD TO BEAT – EUROPEAN POWERHOUSE MHM www.mhm.info

  13. CONCLUSIONS OPPORTUNITY : SCOTLAND AND REST OF UK • MAJORITY OF WIND TURBINE COMPONENT PRODUCTION IN • GERMANY/BENELUX – ONE OF THE WORLD’S HIGHEST COST BASES • ... MIGRATION TO LOWER COST/LOCAL UNDER WAY • TACTICAL UK MANUFACTURE/R&D/HQ DEVELOPMENT RELOCATIONS • – DEVELOPMENTS INCLUDE: • ... IBERDROLA RENOVABLES HQ RELOCATED TO SCOTLAND • ... £100M MITSUBISHI R&D IN UK • ... GE, SIEMENS, NEW FACTORIES + GAMESA AND MANY OTHERS • VIEWING • ... SINOVEL, DONGFANG, GOLDWIND YET TO LOCATE EUROPEAN • OPERATIONS (SCOTLAND? – UK BIGGEST FOR OFFSHORE) • ... SIGNIFICANT COMPETITIVE LEAPFROG POSSIBLE FOR NEWER • PLAYERS DUE TO CURRENT HIGH COST BASE/DISTANT • MANUFACTURE CONCENTRATION • ... UK LEADS IN OFFSHORE (£100BN INVESTMENT) • – SHORTLY 1GW OF CAPACITY MHM www.mhm.info

  14. CONCLUSIONS OPPORTUNITY : GENERAL • EU POLICY CAN FURTHER HELP STRENGTHEN EUROPEAN WIND TURBINE SUPPLY CHAIN BY LEVERAGING: • CONSOLIDATION OF ELECTRONICS CONTROLS MARKET – AS YET • FRAGMENTED (MANY SEPARATE R&D/DESIGNS) • ... EUROPEAN SUPPLIERS DEVELOP TO PROVIDE CONTROL • ELECTRONICS AS OUTSOURCED SERVICE • ... FOR EXAMPLE, COULD BE VESTAS DE-MERGER OF CONTROL • SYSTEMS, WORTH MORE SEPARATE • ... COULD BE EXISTING ELECTRONICS COMPANY SUCH AS ABB, • HONEYWELL, ... • INCREASING BLADES OUTSOURCING – SUBCONTRACTOR NEEDS 30%+ • TO DOMINATE • DISTRIBUTED EUROPEAN TOWER MANUFACTURING – EVERY PLAYER • OUTSOURCES SOME TOWERS • CHINA PRODUCTION WILL SOON LEAD GLOBALLY – USA SUPPLIERS LEFT • STANDING • ... SIEMENS SHARE HOLDS STEADY • ... MANY EUROPEAN OEMS SHARES MARGINALISED BY • QUICKLY GROWING CHINESE MHM www.mhm.info

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