The Economics of Crime and Justice

1. The Economics of Crime and Justice Johnny Cash at Folsom Prison, 1968

2. Topics • Prisons in America • Correctional Bureaucracy in CA • The Serious Offender/Career Criminal • Terrorism: A Preview

3. Bureaucracy: Readings • Albert Hirshman, Exit, Voice and Loyalty • exit: voting with your feet • voice: political action • Anthony Downs, Inside Bureaucracy • survival of the bureaucrat

5. Prisons in America • Are we the land of the free and the home of the brave? • Are we the gulag? • Or both?

6. Likelihood of Going to Prison in a Lifetime For Newborn 1/4 1/6 1/10 1/23 Source: Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U. S. Population, 1974-01

7. Imprisonment Rates Per 100/000 http://virlib.ncjrs.org/Corrections.asp

10. 1.3 million in prison; 4.3 million out but formerly in 12 % 25% Current/Total

14. 2.7% of Adults have been in prison, one time or another

15. And the % is projected to rise

16. If born in 2001, chances or ever going to prison 6.6%

17. If born a black male in 2001, lifetime chance is 32.2%, 1/3

18. Growth rates in State and Federal Prisoners, 1995-2002 Source Prisoners in 2002

19. 1980 Comparative International Rates of Incarceration

20. The U.S. Incarceration Rate is Higher than for Russia, and South Africa; 7 times Italy and 8 times France

21. CA Criminal Justice: examplesAlbert Hirschman, Exit, Voice, and Loyalty • Exit: choosing to live in a gated community • Voice: lobbying for per se laws for DUI • Voice: lobbying for victims’ rights bills and ballot initiatives

22. No Czar for CA CJS Control Costs + Damages to Victims $ Expenditures Per Capita High Cost Inefficiency optimum Crime Control Technology Offenses per Capita

23. No Czar for CJS • Offenses increase, public demands safety • Elected officials can increase police faster than they can build prisons • Arrests rise, courts clog • prison capacity rises • number of parolees rises

26. Corrections Function • Probation Departments • Jails • city and county • Youth Authority • California State Department of Corrections • prisons

27. State Department of Corrections as a Proportion of California Corrections . 100% 80% 60% Cities and Counties, CYA Share Dept. of Corrections 40% 20% 0% 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80 81-82 83-84 85-86 87-88 89-90 91-92 Fiscal Year

28. Slide 38

29. California Corrections Bureaucracy • Prisoner and Parole Populations • Stocks • Felon New Admissions From Court • Inflow to Prison • Prisoners Released to Parole • Outflow from Prison/Inflow to Parole • Parole Violators • Outflow from Parole • Discharges from Parole and Deaths • Outflow from Parole

30. California Department of Corrections1996 Parole Violators With a New Term 17,525 Felon New Admits 46,487 Releases to Parole 111,532 Discharged and Died 27,691 Prisoners 145,565 Parolees 100,935 Absconded 29,376 57,984 Parole Violators Returned to Custody Discharged and Died 3,984 Parolees At Large 18,034

31. Correctional Trends in California: Custodial Populations • Prisoners Per Capita • Institutional Population • Felons • Civil Narcotics Addicts • Parolees Per Capita • Parole and Outpatient Population Supervised in California

33. California Department of Corrections: Total Parole and Outpatient Population

35. Correctional Trends in California: Inflows to Prison • Felon New Admissions from Court • Parole Violators Returned to Custody • Parole Violators With a New Term

37. Two Policy Issues • Composition of New Admissions from Court • Large Volume of Parole Violators Returned to Prison

41. SERIOUSNESS SURVEY (and months served in prison) RATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING BEHAVIORS ON A SCALE FROM ZERO( LEAST SERIOUS) TO TEN( MOST SERIOUS): MEAN 1. HOMICIDE _9.7__36 2. MASS POISONING ( e.g. TYLENOL) _8.3__ 3. FORCIBLE RAPE _9.4__66 4. ARSON: SET FIRE TO A GARAGE _7.8__ 5. SELLING HEROIN _6.2__ 6. AUTO THEFT _5.7__17 7. EMBEZZLEMENT OF $1,000 _4.6__ 8. PROSTITUTE IN A HOUSE OF PROSTITUTION _3.5__ 9. POSSESSION OF MARIJUANA _2.3__13 10. SNIFFING GLUE _2.0__

42. At Least Two Inefficiencies • Using scarce prison space for less serious drug offenders • using scarce prison space for recycled parolees returned to custody ( drug test violators) • Consequence: composition of prisoners rises for drug offenders and falls for violent offenders

44. Citizen Reaction to Release of Violent Offenders • Voice: Three Strikes Law • Polly Klass abduction and murder by a released violent offender

46. Part II. The Serious Offender (the power of ideas) • Theoretical Justification for Detention Policy

47. Part II • The Serious Offender • a few serious criminals account for most crimes • if free, each serious offender would commit crimes at the rate of per year • if there are N serious offenders, they would commit *N offenses per year, if free • if there are PR serious offenders in prison, then we save *PR offenses per year • the net observed offenses per year is: • OF = *N - *PR = (N -AD*S)

48. Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR Population

49. Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR Population If the Serious Offender Population grows faster than the Prison Population then crime gets worse

50. Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR Population If the Prison Population grows faster than the Serious Offender Population then crime gets better