Quantifying future emission paths: What is needed from whom to keep stabilization in reach 18 October 2005

1. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@ecofys.de ECOFYS Cologne, Germany Quantifying future emission paths: What is needed from whom to keep stabilization in reach18 October 2005

2. ECOFYS Energy and Environment • European research and consulting company • In total 250 employees in the Netherlands, Germany, UK, Spain, Poland, Belgium, Italy • Example projects: • Evaluation of the national allocation plans of the EU emission trading system for the UK government • Work on future international climate commitments for, e.g., the German Environmental Agency and EU Commission • BASIC project: Capacity building on climate change negotiations with Brazil, China, India and South Africa

3. Future international action on climate change network Collecting information • Activities • Institutions • Ideas Discussion forum www.fiacc.net Funded by • German Federal Environmental Agency • EU Commissions DG Environment

4. Content 1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels 2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa 3. Conclusions

5. Time scales of stabilization Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001

6. Possible temperature trajectories Source: IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001 EU climate target of 2°C above pre-industrial level • 1000 to 1861, N. Hemisphere, proxy data; • 1861 to 2000 Global, Instrumental; • 2000 to 2100, SRES projections

7. Linking temperature to concentration Levels of CO2 concentration Preindustrial: 280 ppmCurrent: 360 ppm EU climate target of 2°C Source: IPCC Syntheses Report, 2001

8. Stabilization pathways Reference 550ppm 450ppm 400ppm Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only

9. Content 1. From long-term targets to short term emission levels 2. Emission allowances under various proposals for international climate policy after 2012 and implications for South Africa 3. Conclusions

10. Approaches • Contraction and Convergence (C&C) • Common but differentiated convergence • Multistage • Triptych

11. Contraction and Convergence • Contraction: Definition of global emission path (e.g 450ppmv) • Convergence: Per capita emissions of all countries converge by 2050

12. Common but differentiated convergence • Three stages • No commitments • Positively binding emission targets • Convergence to an equal per capita level within e.g. 40 years as of entry • Threshold for participation: • World average GHG/cap N. Höhne, M. den Elzen, M. Weiß “Common but differentiated convergence (CDC) - A new conceptual approach to long-term climate policy” submitted to climate policy

13. Multistage approach • Participation in e.g. four stages: Reduction Moderate reduction Sustainable development policies and measures No commitments • Countries “graduate” to a next step, if threshold is passed, e.g. emissions/cap

14. Triptych National emission target

15. Stabilization pathways 550ppm +30% 450ppm -25% 400ppm Source: post SRES scenarios (stabilization paths), CO2 only

16. Change 1990 to 2020 towards 450 ppm CO2 • Annex I: -10% to –30% below 1990 • No participation: South Asia and Africa, except South Africa • Deviate from their reference: Latin America, Middle East, East Asia and Centrally Planned Asia

17. Change 1990 to 2050 towards 450 ppm CO2 • Annex I: -70% to -90% below 1990 • Substantial deviation from reference in all Non-Annex I regions

18. Emissions per capita GDP/cap Source; Various sources including UNFCCC, IEA as reported in the EVOC model for the year 2000

19. Impact on South Africa Change from 1990 level in 2020 under the 450 ppmv CO2 case • 450 ppmv CO2 case: Deviation from reference for all modelled approaches by 2020

20. Effect of delay of action • Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to to achieve the same environmental goal.

21. Conclusions • EU target of 2°C above pre-industrial levels: below 450 ppmv CO2 (average climate sensitivity) • To keep 450 ppmv CO2 within reach • Global emissions need to drop below 1990 levels within a few decades • Developed country emissions would need to be reduced substantially • Developing country emissions need to deviate from the reference as soon as possible, for some countries even as of 2020 (Latin America, Middle East, East Asia) • Emissions per capita and GDP/cap of South Africa are above global average. • Delay in the next decades significantly increases the efforts to achieve the same environmental goal

22. B A S I C Side event Workshop on Quantitative Tools & Negotiating Capacity 1. Introduction 2. Demonstration of the CAIT tool developed by WRI 3. Demonstration of the EVOC model developed by Ecofys 4. Demonstration of the FAIR model developed by MNP/RIVM Venue: Room Gallagher 3 Wednesday 19th October 10am – 12.30pm