The Future of Urban Energy Systems: A Global Energy Assessment

1. The Future of Urban Energy Systems:A Global Energy Assessment Imperial College Laing O'Rourke Centre Distinguished LectureFebruary 11, 2013arnulf.grubler@yale.edu

2. Global Energy AssessmentMulti-stakeholder “IPCC of energy” 2008-2012Focus on energy challenges, options, transitions Assess linkages: access/poverty, development, security, health, climatePolicy guidance (normative scenarios)First ever energy assessment of urbanization: KM18

3. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking 3

4. How Urban is the World AD2000?

5. Urban and Rural Population Projections (Millions)GEA-H, GEA-M, GEA-L and UN WUP, 2010

6. Population by Settlement Type/Size Number ofagglomerationsin 2005 growthdominatedby small &medium sizedcities!

7. Path Dependent Urban Energy – Incomes

8. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking 8

9. Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average) n=132

10. Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average) n=68

11. Direct and Embodied Urban Energy Use in Asian Cities

12. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking 12

13. China - Air Pollution (SO2) Exposure

14. Europe – Energy Demand Densitiesblue = renewable supply density threshold <0.5-1 W/m2WEU >79% EEU >66% of energy demand

15. Urban Energy and Exergy Efficiency Vienna 2007

16. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking 16

17. Stylized Hierarchy in Urban Energy/GHG Drivers and Policy Leverages • Spatial division of labor(trade, industry structure, bunkers) • Income (consumption) • Efficiency of energy end-use(buildings, processes,vehicles, appliances) • Urban form(density↔public transport↔carownership↔functional mix) • Fuel substitution (imports) • Energy systems integration(co-generation, heat-cascading) • Urban renewables Increasing level ofurban policy leverage Decreasing orderof importance

18. SynCity Simulations of Urban Policy Leverages

19. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

20. GEA KM18 Authors & Resources Lead Authors:XuemeiBai, Thomas Buettner, ShobhakarDhakal, David J. Fisk, ArnulfGrubler (CLA), Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead,GerdSammer, David Satterthwaite, Niels B. Schulz,Nilay Shah, Julia Steinberger, Helga Weisz Contributing Authors: Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*, Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, MikikoKainuma*,Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers, Hitomi Nakanishi, Victoria Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, SeongwonSeo*,Ram ManoharShrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik (*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base) Resources:Online: www.globalenergyassessment.orgChapter 18 (main text)Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base A. Grubler and D. Fisk (eds), Energizing Sustainable Cities:Assessing Urban Energy, Earthscan (2012)

21. Supplementary Material

22. Urban Energy Poverty, Access, & Policy Costs

23. Urban Energy & GHG Accounting Conundrums • Tradeoffs between comprehensiveness, policy relevance,& data availability; Key: systems boundaries • Production accounting-- clear methodology (IPCC/OECD)-- data availability (>200 cities)-- policy/benchmark relevant (industry, buildings, transport) • Consumption accounting-- comprehensiveness (with full accounting)-- intricate methodological issues (no agreed standard, local prices vs national, vs multi-regional I-O)-- data nightmare (estimates for only few megacities)

24. Urban Air Pollutants Concentrations

25. Average over cities of the cited areareference year 1991 Individual cities, reference year 2001 Cities in Asia and South America Cities in USA and Australia Cities in Europe Urban Density and Car Mobility Low density “penalty” Weak correlation above density threshold