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The Very Visible, Invisible Primary

The Very Visible, Invisible Primary. Office Hours. When Today- 11-2 Wednesday 10-2 Doyle 226B. Learning Outcomes . Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process .

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The Very Visible, Invisible Primary

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  1. The Very Visible, Invisible Primary

  2. Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Wednesday 10-2 • Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Outcomes • Analyze the theories of why people vote and apply them to the 2012 Election. • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. The Invisible Primary

  5. The Invisible Primary (Historically) • The Time from the first Declaration to the Iowa caucus • The media shapes your expectations and standings • Fundraising was the barometer

  6. The Modern Invisible Primary • No longer invisible • Constant Polls and debates measure success • Candidates read the handwriting

  7. Constant Debating

  8. Constant Debating

  9. You Cant tell the players without a scorecard Who was in the Race?

  10. Members of the House

  11. Ron Paul • Representative from Texas • The “libertarian candidate” • A Long Shot at Best

  12. Newt Gingrich • Former Speaker of the House from Georgia • Architect of the 1994 Republican sweep • Out of Politics for a Decade

  13. Michele Bachmann • Representative from MN • Tea Party Supporter • The only woman in the race

  14. The Long shot

  15. Herman Cain • CEO of Godfather Pizza • No Political Experience • Guest Host of Rush Limbaugh Show

  16. How the Candidates looked

  17. The New Mitt Romney

  18. The 2008 Conservative • Tried to Position himself as business conservative • Largely Ignored social issues

  19. No Traction in 2008 • Self-financed • No Nationwide appeal • Flip-flopper

  20. The 2008 Campaign • Wasn’t Built for the long haul • Deliver a 1-2 Punch • He doesn’t even get a 1

  21. Attacked from the Right • Romney and Huckabee go after each other • Romney spends all his money • This opens the door for McCain

  22. Romney in 2012 • Diffuse the Religion issue • Call anyone who attacks a religious bigot • The attacks never come

  23. Romney in 2012 • More accepting of attacks • Didn’t Punch down • Avoided controversy • Made himself more approachable

  24. Jockeying to Be the Unromney

  25. The GOP in November

  26. Being the Unromney • Positioning yourself as the alternate to Romney • He was viewed as a flawed and vulnerable front runner • Every time someone grabbed it, they faltered

  27. The Iowa Straw Poll • Bachmann wins the Ames Iowa Straw Poll • Spent much of her money to win • No one cared as Perry announced that same day

  28. Bachmann’s Brief Time as Unromney • Migraine headaches kept her off the trail • Took abuse for neglecting her family • Criticized for her appearance.

  29. Herman Cain: The Next Unromney • Led the Race in October • 9-9-9 • Very Popular

  30. The End of Herman Cain • Accused of Harassment while head of National Restaurant Association • This signals the End of the Campaign • The Romney Camp is actually disappointed.

  31. The Next Unromney The Fall and Rise of Newt Gingrich

  32. The Fall of Newt Gingrich • Spent more time and money on his wife • Staff Deserted him • No Money

  33. Gingrich’s Problems • Needed the Other Conservatives out of the Race • Find Money • Had to Hang on until South Carolina

  34. The Reemergence of Gingrich • The Best Red Meat Debater in the field • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=To_g23JkXnU • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qtkSFGkjaXU • The Most political experience • No one “punched down” at him

  35. Rick Santorum

  36. The Most Unlikely Unromney • Was 4 or 5th in Most Polls • Lost his last race by 18 points • Largely Ignored

  37. The Santorum Message • Said what was on his mind • Small Government Populism • Blue Collar Roots appealed to working class voters

  38. Rick Perry as the UnRomney

  39. Perry in 2009 • He is trailing KBH by 20 Points • He was seen as being more lucky than Good • People thought He had no chance

  40. For the GOP Nomination • Claims she is untested and too moderate for the Texas GOP • He aligns himself with the Tea Party • He makes himself an outsider despite 20 years in Government

  41. Perry in 2010 • Used the GOP majorities to push conservative policies • Pro Job • Pro Gun • Anti-DC

  42. He Goes after the Third Rail

  43. Perry Announces 8/13/2011 • Charleston S.C. on the day of the Iowa Straw Poll • Strong support among conservatives • The primaries should be easy for him

  44. 12 days after he announces, he is the Unromney29-17

  45. From there his campaign falls apart

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