The Revolution Yet to Happen

1. Rivier College, CS699 Professional Seminar The Revolution Yet to Happen Gordon Bell & James N. Gray (from Beyond Calculation, Chapter 1) Revolution Yet to Happen

2. Discoveries in the Past • The Electron Discovery by J. J. Thompson, 1895; • First Electronic Computers were built in 1940s; • The Transistor was invented in 1947; • First Programming Languages (ALGOL, FORTRAN, COBOL, and LISP) were designed in the late 1950s; • First Operating Systems were created in the mid 1960s; • First Computer Science Departments were formed in 1960s; • Integrated Circuits appeared by the mid 1960s; • First Microprocessors & Hand Calculator were made in 1972; Revolution Yet to Happen

3. Discoveries in the Past (continued) • Computer Chips & Personal Computers appeared in the late 1970s; • The IBM PC appeared in 1981; • Ethernet was invented in 1973; • the Internet (originally ARPANET) started in 1970s; • World Wide Web appeared in 1989-1992. Revolution Yet to Happen

4. Predictions in the Past • First Description of Digital Computer by Charles Babbage, 19c.; • IBM and Univac bet “that computers would become the engines to run large businesses” as “electronic brains”, 1950; • In 1950, Turing believed “that by 2000 we would have computers that could not be distinguished from humans by their responses to questions”; • In 1960, the founders of Artificial Intelligence believed “that thinking machines would be a reality within a decade or two”; • In 1968, the founders of Software Engineering believed that this discipline would solve the software crisis within a decade • In 1945, MIT Prof. Bush predicted hypertext-based library network, speech-to-printing device, head-mounted camera. Revolution Yet to Happen

5. Predictions in the Past • In 1975, Digital Equipment predicted that $1M-8Mbyte-time-shared computer system would sell for $8,000 and an organizer or calculator for $100 in 1997; • In 1980, Bell Labs believed that UNIX would become the world’s dominant Operating System; • In 1982, Bill Gates thought that 640K of Main Memory would suffice for user Workspaces in Operating Systems; • In 1984, IBM believed that “Personal Computers would not amount to anything”; • In 1985, many people believed that “the Japanese Fifth Generation project would produce Intelligent Machines”. Revolution Yet to Happen

6. Some New Predictions • In 2047, Computers will be one hundred thousand times more powerful than those of today; • Moore’s Law: processing speeds, storage capacities, network bandwidth continue to evolve with the rate of 1.6 per year; • In 2047, almost all information will be in Cyberspace; • New ways to inform, entertain, and educate people; • eCommerce: information systems, marketing, trade; • New levels of personal services, health care, automation; • Ability to communicate remotely with one another by using all our senses; • (by Peter Cohrane) Computers could have the human brain capacities by 2047: on-body personal assistants (read, hear). Revolution Yet to Happen

7. Cyberspace • Computer Platforms and the Content they hold (processors, memories, basic system software); • Hardware and Software Interface Transducer Technology (platform-people-other physical systems connections); • Networking technology. Revolution Yet to Happen

8. Tendencies • Handling more complex data types: - images, video, virtual reality; • Synthesis in artificially created environments: atomic structures, building, spacecraft); • Analysis: recognition; • “virtual villages and cities” • universal form of communication through the coupling of images, music, and video with computer translation of speech; • the Internet: create, manage, and consume intellectual property. Revolution Yet to Happen

9. Three Cyberspace Blocks • Computer Platforms: The Computer and Transistor Revolution; • Hardware and Software Cyberization Interfaces: Connecting to Physical World; • Networks: A Convergence and Interoperability among All Nets. Revolution Yet to Happen

10. Future Platforms, Their Interfaces, and Supporting Networks • Computer Systems follow three paths over time: - Evolution (constant or slightly lower price and increasing performance and functionality timeline; - Establishment of new lower-priced classes when cost can be reduced by factor of ten: a new class forms about every ten years; - commoditization into appliances and other devices: speech recognition, filing, printing, display are incorporated into OTHER devices (watches, talking calculators and telephones, graphical camera). Revolution Yet to Happen

11. Future Platforms, Their Interfaces, and Supporting Networks (continued) • New Computer Classes; • MicroSystems: Systems-on-a-Chip; • Web Computers; • Scalable computers replace nonscalable multiprocessor servers; • Useful, self-maintaining computers vs. Users as System Manages; • “Telepresence” Technology (mechanism, size & structure, purpose, professional discipline); Revolution Yet to Happen

12. Future Platforms, Their Interfaces, and Supporting Networks (continued) • Computers, devices, and Appliances that understand speech; • Video: Synthesis, Analysis, and Understanding; • Body Nets: Interconnecting all the computers that we carry; • One-Chip, fully-Networked systems: “computer disappear to become components for everything”. Revolution Yet to Happen