Education in South Africa IPSU 8 March 2013

1. Education in South AfricaIPSU8 March 2013 Nicholas Spaull nicholasspaull@gmail.com www.nicspaull.com/research

2. Outline for todays lecture • Social policy and education (why do we care?) • Theory of education in SA • Two education systems not one • What is the state of education in SA? • Local and international assessments • What are some of the causes of low performance?

3. Social Policy & Education Firstly, what is social policy? “Social policy primarily refers to the guidelines, principles, legislation and activities that affect the living conditions conducive to human welfare” “Public policy and practice in the areas of health care, human services, criminal justice, inequality, education, and labour” “Social Policy is defined as actions that affect the well-being of members of a society through shaping the distribution of and access to goods and resources in that society”

4. Social Policy & Education • Secondly, how does education fit into it? • Most areas of social policy influence education (in some way), and are influenced by education (in some way) • Bidirectional causality  • Multiple benefits of education…

5. $ Benefits of education Ed H S Ec • Improved human rights • Empowerment of women • Reduced societal violence • Promotion of a national (as opposed to regional or ethnic) identity • Increased social cohesion • Lower fertility • Improved child health • Preventative health care • Demographic transition • Improvements in productivity • Economic growth • Reduction of inter-generational cycles of poverty • Reductions in inequality Economy Health Society Specific references: lower fertility (Glewwe, 2002), improved child health (Currie, 2009), reduced societal violence (Salmi, 2006), promotion of a national - as opposed to a regional or ethnic - identity (Glewwe, 2002), improved human rights (Salmi, 2006), increased social cohesion (Heyneman, 2003), Economic growth – see any decent Macro textbook, specifically for cognitive skills see (Hanushek & Woessman 2008)

6. Social Policy & Education • Secondly, how does education fit into it? • Education itself affects society & the individual in real and meaningful ways: • Transforms individual capabilities, values, aspirations and desires (see Sen) • Allows individuals to think, feel and act in different ways • Enables new ways of organizing and supporting social action that depend on numeracy and literacy, technologies of communication and abstract thinking skills (Lewin, 2007). Democratic participation, knowledge creation etc. • Education increases peoples ability to add value (productivity) • “Modernising societies use educational access and attainment as a primary mechanism to sort and select subsequent generations into different social and economic roles” (Lewin, 2007: 3) Distribution of income

7. Education • “Fairly universally poverty reduction is seen as unlikely unless knowledge, skill and capabilities are extended to those who are marginalised from value-added economic activity by illiteracy, lack of numeracy, and higher level reasoning that links causes and effects rationally. In most societies, and especially those that are developing rapidly, households and individuals value participation in education and invest substantially in pursuing the benefits it can confer. The rich have few doubts that the investments pay off; the poor generally share the belief and recognise that increasingly mobility out of poverty is education-related, albeit that their aspirations and expectations are less frequently realized” (Lewin, 2007, p. 2).

8. Theory: Human Capital Education increases peoples ability to add value (productivity)  HCM + =   “The failure to treat human resources explicitly as a form of capital, as a produced means of production, as the product of investment, has fostered the retention of the classical notion of labour as a capacity to do manual work requiring little knowledge and skill, a capacity with which, according to this notion, labourers are endowed about equally. This notion of labour was wrong in the classical period and it is patently wrong now. Counting individuals who can and want to work and treating such a count as a measure of the quantity of an economic factor is no more meaningful than it would be to count the number of all manner of machines to determine their economic importance” (Schultz, 1961, p. 3). Incr wage Incr MP of L Man Skills & health Incr profits

9. Theory: Sorting & signalling • Education does not improve productivity or produce HC, instead acts as a signal of innate productivity/IQ/motivation. • Those with higher productivity/IQ/motivation will find it easier to get higher levels of education than those with lower P/IQ/M • Do we care if it is HCM or Signalling? • Yes! Implications for public investment.

10. Elusive equity • Given the strong links between education and income, educational inequality is a fundamental determinant of income inequality. • Clear need to understand SA educational inequality if we are to understand SA income inequality. • High inequality + unemployment 2 of the most severe problems facing SA • Educational quality is intimately intertwined with both of these. • “Education shall be free, compulsory, universal and equal for all children” (Freedom Charter)

11. Elusive equity • IQ • Motivation • Social networks • Discrimination

12. Theory – education in SA • Type of tertiary education (quality) - institution and field of study • Demand and supply • Individual motivation • Parental IQ (assortative mating) • Maternal health • Nutrition • Early cognitive stimulation: preschool (quantity & quality), home environment South Africa • Average school SES • Language of learning & teaching (LOLT) • Teacher quality • Peer effects • Subject choice • Cost of tertiary education (explicit & implicit costs) • Parental & personal aspirations and perceptions • Society/culture (See Taylor, 2010)

13. Background to SA Education • Primary schooling • High school • Subject choice • Matric • University/FET

14. Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6 – Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 ECD Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase Mother-tongue instruction De facto / De jure ? Primary school Main drop-out zone High school

15. School’s in SA Public schools ?

16. Spending 1994 (Fiske & Ladd, 2004: 104)

17. Spending 2000 (Fiske & Ladd, 2004: 104)

18. Spending 2000-2011 Spending on public ordinary schools per public school per learner by province in 2001/2 and 2010/11 (Oxford Policy Management & Stellenbosch Economics, 2012)

19. Expenditure on education2010/11 Total government expenditure (31% GDP in 2010/11 – R733.5bn) Government expon education (19.5% of Gov exp: R143.1bn) 17% 5%

20. South Africa: Background

21. Teaching Characterised by: • High cognitive demand • Full curriculum coverage • Adequate LTSM • Frequent assessment • Schools Characterised by: • Strong accountability • Well managed & organized • Good school discipline • Culture of L & T Labour Market • University/FET • Type of institution (FET or University) • Quality of institution • Type of qualification(diploma, degree etc.) • Field of study (Engineering, Arts etc.) • High productivity jobs and incomes (10%) • Mainly professional, managerial & skilled jobs • Requires graduates, good quality matric or good vocational skills • Historically mainly white High quality secondaryschool Unequal society High SES background High quality primary school Minority (20%) Some motivated, lucky or talented students make the transition • Vocational training • Affirmative action • Big demand for good schools despite fees • Some scholarships/bursaries Majority (80%) • Quality • Type • Attainment Low quality secondary school • Low productivity jobs & incomes • Often manual or low skill jobs • Limited or low quality education • Minimum wage can exceed productivity Low SES background Low quality primary school • Teaching Characterised by: • Low cognitive demand • Slow curriculum coverage • Inadequate LTSM • Weak & infrequent assessment • Weak teacher content knowledge • Schools Characterised by: • Little parental involvement • No accountability • Little discipline • Weak management • High teacher absenteeism

22. Teaching Characterised by: • High cognitive demand • Full curriculum coverage • Adequate LTSM • Frequent assessment • Schools Characterised by: • Strong accountability • Well managed & organized • Good school discipline • Culture of L & T Labour Market • University/FET • Type of institution (FET or University) • Quality of institution • Type of qualification(diploma, degree etc.) • Field of study (Engineering, Arts etc.) • High productivity jobs and incomes (10%) • Mainly professional, managerial & skilled jobs • Requires graduates, good quality matric or good vocational skills • Historically mainly white High quality secondaryschool Unequal society High SES background High quality primary school Minority (20%) Some motivated, lucky or talented students make the transition • Vocational training • Affirmative action • Big demand for good schools despite fees • Some scholarships/bursaries Majority (80%) • Quality • Type • Attainment Low quality secondary school • Low productivity jobs & incomes • Often manual or low skill jobs • Limited or low quality education • Minimum wage can exceed productivity Low SES background Low quality primary school • Teaching Characterised by: • Low cognitive demand • Slow curriculum coverage • Inadequate LTSM • Weak & infrequent assessment • Weak teacher content knowledge • Schools Characterised by: • Little parental involvement • No accountability • Little discipline • Weak management • High teacher absenteeism

23. Two school systems not one Ex-department • Grade 4 [2008] • Data: NSES • (Taylor, 2011)

24. Two school systems not one Language • Grade 5 [2006] • Data: PIRLS • (Shepherd, 2011)

25. Two school systems not one Socioeconomic Status • Grade 6 [2007] • Data: SACMEQ • (Spaull, 2011)

26. Bimodality – indisputable fact PIRLS / TIMSS / SACMEQ / NSES / ANA / Matric… by Wealth / Language / Location / Dept…

27. Corroborating evidence? • Latest data? ANA? • Teacher knowledge • Teacher absenteeism • Textbook access • Literacy/numeracy rates • Grade repetition • Parental education • Homework frequency

28.  In most government reports outcomes and inputs are not usually reported by quintile, only national averages 

29. Implications for reporting and modeling??

30. Do the ends justify the means? Government reporting – means are misleading

31. Grade 3 Numeracy (V-ANA 2011) Correct answer (15cm): 40% of Gr 3 students NB: Test conducted in home language LOLT

32. Grade 6 Numeracy (V-ANA 2011) Correct answer (90 litres): 32% of Gr 6 students

33. Matric performance • Matric passes as % of Gr 2 learners 10 years earlier: • 2009: 28% • 2010: 34% • 2011: 38% • In the bottom 4 quintiles of schools, only 1% of learners in grade 8 will go on to pass matric and obtain a C symbol or higher (60%) for Mathematics and slightly fewer for Physical Science • Approximately ten times as many will do so in Quintile 5 schools (Oxford Policy Management & Stellenbosch Economics, 2012)

34. Gr 1 - Gr 2 - Gr 3 – Gr 4 – Gr 5 – Gr 6– Gr 7 – Gr 8 – Gr 9 - Gr 10 – Gr 11 – Gr 12 Foundation Phase Intermediate Phase Senior Phase FET Phase Matric • Grade 12 – Various • Roughly half the cohort ____________________________________ Underperformance • Of 100 students that enroll in grade 1 approximately 50 will make it to matric, 40 will pass and 12 will qualify for university Inequality • Subject combinations differ between rich and poor – differential access to higher education • Maths / Maths-lit case in point • Are more students taking maths literacy because THEY cannot do pure-maths, or because their TEACHERS cannot teach pure-maths?

35. What are the root causes of low and unequal achievement? Matric pass rate Subject choice Throughput No. endorsements Media sees only this MATRIC Quality? Pre-MATRIC 50% dropout Low curric coverage Low accountability Weak culture of T&L Vested interests Low time-on-task No early cognitive stimulation Low quality teachers HUGE learning deficits…

36. Source of the problem? • “Low quality education combined with high and lenient grade progression up until grade 11 means that when a standardised assessment occurs, i.e. the Matric examination, this serves to filter a large proportion of weak students out of further attainment. Many of those who do attain a Matric Certificate are still not able to gain entrance into tertiary institutions. Therefore, low-quality education up until grade 11 can be regarded as the root cause of low attainment beyond grade 11.” (Van der Berg et al, 2011: 4) • i.e. the REAL problem is at the primary grades

37. Student performance 2003-2011 TIMSS (2003) ANA (2011)  PIRLS (2006) SACMEQ (2007) TIMSS 2003 (Gr8 Maths & Science) • Out of 50 participating countries (including 6 African countries) SA came last • Only 10% reached low international benchmark • No improvement from TIMSS 1999-TIMSS 2003 PIRLS 2006(Gr 4/5 – Reading) • Out of 45 participating countries SA came last • 87% of gr4 and 78% of Gr 5 learners deemed to be “at serious risk of not learning to read” SACMEQ III 2007(Gr6 – Reading & Maths) • SA came 10/15 for reading and 8/15 for maths behind countries such as Swaziland, Kenya and Tanzania ANA 2011 (Gr 1-6 Reading & Maths) • Mean literacy score gr3: 35% • Mean numeracy score gr3: 28% • Mean literacy score gr6: 28% • Mean numeracy score gr6: 30%

38. Background: SACMEQ SACMEQ • Southern and Eastern African Consortium for Monitoring Educational Quality • Gr 6 Numeracy • Gr 6 Literacy SACMEQ: South Africa • 9071 Grade 6 students • 1163 Grade 6 teachers • 392 primary schools • See SACMEQ website for research

39. BasicLiteracy and Numeracy (Gr 6) • What proportion of South African grade 6 children were functionally literate and functionally numerate? • Functionally illiterate: a functionally illiterate learner cannot read a short and simple text and extract meaning. • Functionally innumerate: a functionally innumerate learner cannot translate graphical information into fractions or interpret everyday units of measurement.

40. SA primary school: Gr6 Literacy – SACMEQ III (2007) Never enrolled 2% Functionally illiterate 25% Basic skills 46% Higher order skills : 27% Forthcoming paper with Stephen Taylor

41. Grade 6 Literacy SA Gr 6 Literacy Kenya Gr 6 Literacy 1% 5% 7% 25% 49% 46% 39% Public current expenditure per pupil: $258 Public current expenditure per pupil: $1225 Additional resources is not the answer 27%

42. Grade 6 Literacy $459 $258 $668 $1225 $66

43. 2 education systems

44. Determinants of low quality? • What are some of the determinants of the low quality education in South Africa? • What do South African teachers know? • Teacher content knowledge • What are the levels of teacher absenteeism? • Time on task and curriculum coverage • What is the distribution of textbooks in SA? • Basic LTSM

45. Teacher knowledgeSACMEQ III (2007)  401/498 Gr6 Mathematics teachers Correct answer (7km): 38%of Gr 6 Maths teachers 7 2 education systems

46. Teacher knowledge... Maths teacher content knowledge (SACMEQ III) Source: Stephen Taylor

47. Accountability: teacher absenteeism(SACMEQ III – 2007 – 996 teachers) 4th/15

48. Accountability: teacher absenteeism(SACMEQ III – 2007 – 996 teachers) 15th/15

49. Accountability: teacher absenteeism • Teacher absenteeism is regularly found to be an issue in many studies • 2007: SACMEQ III conducted – 20 days average in 2007 • 2008: Khulisa Consortium audit – HSRC (2010) estimates that 20-24 days of regular instructional time were lost due to leave in 2008 • 2010: “An estimated 20 teaching days per teacher were lost during the 2010 teachers’ strike” (DBE, 2011: 18) • Importantly this does not include time lost where teachers were at school but not teaching scheduled lessons • A recent study observing 58 schools in the North West concluded that “Teachers did not teach 60% of the lessos they were scheduled to teach in North West” (Carnoy & Chisholm et al, 2012)

50. Accountability: teacher absenteeism(SACMEQ III – 2007 – 996 teachers) Limpopo KwaZulu-Natal Eastern Cape Western Cape % absent > 1 week striking 97% 81% 32% 82% % absent > 1 month(20 days) 48% 62% 22% 73% 12% % absent > 2 months(40 days) 0% 10% 5% 1.3 days a week