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4th International Wind Energy Summit 2019 Marriot Hotel, Karachi

4th International Wind Energy Summit 2019 Marriot Hotel, Karachi Development & Challenges of Renewable Energy Towards Renewable Energy Dominance Mayura Botejue Renewable Energy Specialist August 30, 2019. Renewed Debate on Role of Renewable Energy ( RE)

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4th International Wind Energy Summit 2019 Marriot Hotel, Karachi

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  1. 4th International Wind Energy Summit 2019 • Marriot Hotel, Karachi • Development & Challenges of Renewable Energy • Towards Renewable Energy Dominance • Mayura Botejue • Renewable Energy Specialist • August 30, 2019

  2. Renewed Debate on Role of Renewable Energy (RE) • Power Division Secretary Remarks • RE related technologies advancing & cost declining • Harnessing RE resources to the maximum for: • - Attaining energy security with RE contribution 30% by 2030 • - Decrease impact of thermal generation on environment • Benefits of visionary RE policy: • - Technological advancement • - Increased local investment in infrastructure • - Dispersed project development activity • - Skilled job creation • - Alignment with globally expressed climate change concerns

  3. Pakistan - Abundant RE Resources • Maximized RE contribution via: • Utility scale projects • N-S & E-W (south) HV transmission links • Distributed generation through hybrid plants (wind, solar, hydro + storage) • Mini, micro grids (grid tied or isolated) • Net-metered roof top solar + storage • Biomass Hydro (North) Potential > 30 GW Solar Wind Potential > 1,000 GW Potential > 40 GW Ka-La = 1,200 KM Ka-Gw = 600 KM

  4. RE Dominance - Long Way to Go Wind & Solar < 5% Dawn - 23 Aug 2019 https://www.dawn.com/news/1501131/energy-future-hinges-on-renewables

  5. Barriers to Rapid RE Development • Institutional resistance • - Lack of familiarity • - Conventional mind set (concern on “unregulated” power) • - Era of advanced “disruptive” technologies • - Regulatory impediments • - Development pitfalls • Outdated analytical tools & inputs • - Era of intermittent power • - Impact of; • Distributed generation • Storage • DSM, smart meters & variable tariff • Land issue • - Zoning is key! Who lobbies for wind & solar?

  6. RE Infrastructure Development Conventional Approach Outdated • Large capacity plants vs distributed generation • Raising capital - Institutional funding vs private capital • Skill sets of technocracy outdated - must adapt to master impact of advanced RE technologies • Conventional plants - long gestation period, delays & cost over runs • RE plants - fast track • Emergence of “Prosumers” • Institutional inertia Prosumer = Producer/Consumer (Net metered solar with battery storage)

  7. Facilitating RE Dominance • Change essential - era of rapid technological advances: • Distributed generation • Grid unbundling • State institutions role: Forecaster, planner, regulator and technical standards enforcer • Private sector driven development (plant and infrastructure) • Development agency funds solicited for; • Resource mapping, GIS& resource assessments • Policy formulation • Training professional cadre on RE technologies

  8. RE Dominance - Commercial & Technical Influences • Commercial • Electricity viewed as a commodity (buy/sell) • Wheeling of “green” power to businesses • Demand charge, time of day tariff & off grid option • Technical • Advanced forecasting of wind, solar & hydro energy yield • Net-metered roof top solar PV with battery storage (residential, commercial, industrial prosumers) - smart meters & DSM programs • Emergence of mini/micro grids • Run of river hydro with ‘pondage’ for regulation • Utility scale battery storage

  9. Investment Climate & Regulations • State must declare intent: • - Goal of rapid expansion of RE capacity • IEEs conducted at zoned lands • No fatal flaws or citizen resistance • Tariff • FIT • Reverse auction (current trend) • Private sector investment • - Essential to increase rate of development • - Meet investor expectations (domestic & foreign) • - Address investor risk concerns (multiple)

  10. RE Development Potential • ‘Hybridization’ of existing wind power plants in Sindh - solar &battery storage (fast track) • Further expansion of wind in Sindh (with solar + battery storage) • Run of river hydro (fast track & multiple) • Harnessing large scale wind & solar in Balochistan • Networked regional grids (wind, solar, hydro hybrids) • Isolated micro grids (biomass, solar + battery storage) • Net metered solar PV with storage (industrial, commercial & residential prosumers) • Offshore wind

  11. Expansion of RE in Sindh • Wind in NE direction along Gharo corridor • - Large capacity WTGs (>3MW, net CF > 40%) • Solar &battery storage in hybrid arrangement • In SW direction on intertidal zone • Offshore wind Gharo wind corridor

  12. Hybrid Power - Wind, Solar & Storage Suitable at operational wind projects • Power evacuated through existing substation • Analysis to optimize solar & battery capacities (resource & financial): • Wind (MW) • Solar (MW) • Battery (MWh) • Transformer (MVA) Maximize energy output through existing substation economically

  13. Wind Power • Gharo Intertidal Zone • Close to Karachi • Land available • Major civil engineering challenge • Operational wind projects in Gharo

  14. Wind, Solar & Hydro in Hybrid Mini Grid • Wind on ridge line, corridor • Solar in valley or rooftop • Battery storage • Hydro (pondage, regulation, pumped)

  15. Harnessing large scale wind & solar in Balochistan • Wind plant • Solar PV &CSP plant • HVDC link to major N-S transmission artery • Battery storage (ramp rate control for intermittency) • Gas turbines & diesel for regulation (south) • Hydropower for regulation (north) Solar Wind Larger project capacity = Economics of scale

  16. Smart Grid in the Prosumer Environment • DSM • Time of day tariff • Producing/consuming • Wheeling * Prosumer Fixed output No regulation Regulation Seasonal shortfall Phasing out Storage * Regulation Ancillary services *

  17. Residential Prosumer • Building operating as a micro utility (networked or isolated) • Demand charge & time day tariff regime • Smart, integrated &network centric Not suitable in urban environment

  18. Challenge of Distributed Generation Adv. Forecasting Networked Smart DSM Storage Australia Energy Market Operator

  19. Isolated micro grids (solar + battery storage) • Solar & battery storage micro grids to serve rural sector • - Solar at individual houses if widely scattered • T&D losses eliminated • Carbon footprint reduced Pakistan: 60% rural population How many ‘off grid’? Solar & Storage Micro Grid in Tanzania

  20. “No longer accept commercial agreements with countries that do not respect the Paris Climate Accord” Thank You! Emmanuel Macron President of France UN General Assembly 25 Sept 2018

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