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Team Software Project (TSP) July 24, 2007 Cycle 2 Requirements, Standards & Death Marches. Due today. Cycle 2 Requirements: Cycle 2 Requirements. Remaining Lectures Plan/Discussion. July 24 – Cycle 2 Requirements Complete Cycle 2 Requirements Death March Projects continued
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Team Software Project (TSP) July 24, 2007 Cycle 2 Requirements, Standards & Death Marches SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Due today Cycle 2 Requirements: Cycle 2 Requirements SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Remaining Lectures Plan/Discussion July 24 – Cycle 2 Requirements Complete Cycle 2 Requirements Death March Projects continued Process topics – Configuration Management - July 31 – Cycle 2 Implementation Complete System Test Plan Baselined Cycle 2 Design & Implementation Process topics – CMMI Details August 7 – Cycle 2 Test Complete Cycle 2 Test Complete Other topics TBD August 14 - Course Review Cycle 2 Post-Mortem Complete Course Review Final SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Death March Projects From Death March by Edward Yourdon
Death March Odds of a software project delivering on its committed schedule, budget & capabilities is extremely poor Average Project 6-12 months behind schedule 50-100% over budget But Why? SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
How Do We Get Here? Start: High risk factors: • Optimism • Wishful thinking Unrealistic schedule & budget Realistic plan, but then it goes downhille.g. user adds requirements Results: Overtime Wasted weekends Emotional & physical burnout before the end SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Key Takeaway Confronted with joining a Death March project,Recognize & understand your own motivations, soyou can make a rational decision to join the team or look elsewhere for your next job. You always have options! SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Death March Defined Project where an unbiased objective risk assessment (including technical, interpersonal & legal risks) determines the likelihood of failure at greater than 50%. Death March projects are the norm, not the exception! SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Common Root Causes Compressed schedule (e.g. < ½ time estimated by a rational process) ½ Staff of what a comparable project typically requires ½ Budget & associated resources Twice the functionality, feature & performance requirements given schedule, staff & budget constraints SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Types of Death March ProjectsSize Small < 10 people 3-6 months Most common & greatest chance of success How: small, tight knit, motivated group can totally sacrifice their personal lives, provided … They know the hardships (nights & weekends) will end in a few months Medium 20-30 people 1-2 years Little chance of success Large 100-300 people 3-5 years No chance of success SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Reasons Politics … ugly politics! Naïve promises Hysterical Optimism e.g. Everyone in organization desperately wants to believe that a complex project, never before completed in < 3 years, can somehow be finished in 9 months. Naïve optimism of youth No problem, we can do it in a weekend! Start-up mentality of fledgling, entrepreneurial companies Intense competition Markets Technologies Government regulations Unexpected &/or unplanned crises SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Questions? Why would anyone in his/her right mind agree to work on a death march project? If a colleague of yours was to take on the task of managing a death march project, what is the one thing you would advise him/her to do? To not do? SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Reasons for signing up High Risk / High Reward (e.g. Microsoft example) “Mt Everest” syndrome For the challenge! Noble failures may promise glory even if not successful (e.g. Go) But watch for … pre-determined failures and “so what” value props Unemployment Pre-requisite of promotion or future advancement Bankruptcy Revenge! Escape normal company bureaucracy (e.g. skunkworks, Apple’s Mac)* SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Politics The often internally conflicting interrelationships among people in a society. Intrigue or maneuvering within a political unit or group in order to gain control. Source: The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Politics Politics are normal Death March politics tend to be more intensive & unhealthy SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Identifying Stakeholders Why? Need to know friend from foe Owner (potential friend) Customer Shareholders Stakeholders Champions Probably more important to project’s success than any technology or methodology SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Kamikaze MissionImpossible Happiness Suicide Ugly Low Success Probability Death March Project Types Happiness Gauge Would you do this again? Mission Impossible High team morale, thrive on challenge, dream of rewards of success Kamikaze Go type project, happiness derived from technology or team dynamics Ugly Low team morale, heavy duty politics Suicide Everyone doomed, everyone miserable SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Negotiations Negotiations at start of projects tend to be irrational Why? Negotiations at 1-2 months prior to deadline tend to be more rational Customer realizes original deadline, budget & functionality won’t be achieved But, it’s too late for some project members (e.g. project leader) “You need to understand your own management’s negotiating stance, if they love to play roll over, you have to keep them well away from the project.” Doug Scott SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Mitigation Tactics Commercial Estimation Tools 50+ available (e.g. SLIM, Checkpoint, Estimacs) Best estimates, +/- 10%, but Death March projects typically off by 1000%! Systems Dynamics Models Prediction of impact from constraint changese.g. Overtime: initially output increases, then errors increase & output decreases Prototyping & Timeboxing Acceptable Trade-offs Pose alternatives 80/20 rule “everybody wants things good, wants them fast & wants them cheap … pick two” Balancing Time, Resources, Capability 10% change in one variable, change another variable 10% What happens if greater than 10% change? SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Negotiation Games Negotiation is a game Safety factor in most projects is? But, for Death March projects … SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Basic Negotiation Games Doubling & add some Bosses know this one, so they halve it. But, actually sound logic behind this one Reverse Doubling Client / customer gets one estimate Development team another Price is Right? (or Guess the # I’m thinking of) Benefits for boss? Double Dummy Spit The X Plus Game Spanish Inquisition SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Advanced Negotiation Games Low Bid / What are they prepared to pay Gotcha! Smoke & Mirrors / Blinding with science (GIGO rule) False Precision SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Tactics Not playing along is risky, but negotiation games can be countered First, recognize the game e.g. Price is Right, response “what do you think is a good estimate” Delay Use data, sound estimation practices & comparable examples SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
You are leading a Death March Project How do you survive?
People Choose your own team (if possible) Superstars? Well honed Mission Impossible team Well prepared mere mortals Pot luck Prepare for some overtime Preferably short sprints Reward the team well if project succeeds Focus on building a loyal, cohesive & cooperative team Commitment Motivation Rewards SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Teams Open & honest Communication Assume no secrets & you won’t get burned Share everything you can For stuff you can’t share, say so! Remember the Peopleware lessons You need every productivity improving factor you can get Overall, Talented people, Cohesive teams & Decent working conditions give you the greatest chance of success SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Death March Approaches Key: You can’t do everything, so … Don’t put together a plan or processes that assume you can (e.g. waterfall) Solution: Triage! SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Requirements Management Ultimately a crisis will occur & reality will hit Several scenarios could occur: Fire project manager Renegotiate schedule Renegotiate functionality (at which point most WIP gets thrown away) Alternatively, plan at start 80/20 Rule Key is to choose the “right” 20% Approach: Prioritize (subtly) requirements into must do, should do, could do At start, identify what will ultimately be thrown away & avoid spending energy on those items SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt
Death March Processes Back to basics Manage requirements Initial baseline Changes – high threshold & very visible Don’t try out new tools & processes Agree on & formalize some important processes, then follow them e.g. source code control, change management, requirements management Leave other processes ad hoc Pay careful attention to risk management e.g. Top 10 list SE 652- 2007_7_24_DeathMarch.ppt