How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost?

1. How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost? Brian Enke SwRI Boulder, CO benke@boulder.swri.edu AUTHOR: Shadows of Medusa

2. Follow any thread of thought. Never ridicule or dismiss any idea. Write everything down!! Brainstorming....

3. How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost? Paul Recer (AP), Gregg Easterbrook (New Republic), et al: ONE TRILLION DOLLARS “Huh???”

4. How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost? Bob Zubrin, et al: ABOUT TWO BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR* * INVESTMENT per YEAR!

5. How Much Does A Mars Mission Cost? President Bush, Sean O'Keefe, et al: PAY AS YOU GO • $6 billion per year?

6. How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost? $2b / year? $6b / year? More? Less? Somewhere inbetween?

7. All of these estimates are possible. • US deficit spending • (PAYG = PWCWA) • CHEAPER MISSIONS ARE EASIER TO SELL • What IS a Mars Mission, anyway?

8. How Low Can We Go?

9. Well, What Do You Want To Do?

10. We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! • Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment)

11. We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! • Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment) • Risk assessment

12. We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! • Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment) • Risk assessment • Timeframe

13. We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! • Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment) • Risk assessment • Timeframe • Investment per year

14. Baseline Mission: Mars Direct(NASA estimates from 2003) • ROI: Good science • Crew of 4 for 2 years • 500 km surface range • Payload: 54 tonnes • Risk: Medium • 7 years to develop • $3.5 billion / year

15. Mars Direct $$ Assumptions(from NASA/ESA study, Hunt & van Pelt, 2003)

16. Mars Direct $$ Assumptions(from NASA/ESA study, Hunt & van Pelt, 2003)

17. Baseline Mission: Assumptions • Ongoing investment vs. development investment • Divide mission investment by 2 for ongoing (per year) • $25m/tonne-to-Mars per launch (or $1b/Ares) • $250m/lander, $1b/ERV

18. How Low Can We Go?

19. ROI: No investment Crew of 0 for (Inf) years 0 km surface range Payload: 0 tonnes Risk: Zero 0 years to develop $0 billion / year Zero Risk, Zero Investment Mission(Procrastinator's Paradise) • Do Nothing • Cancel the whole space program • Donate space shuttles to museums • Reduce the US federal deficit by $16 billion (to 429 billion)

20. ROI: Minimal Science Crew of 0 for (inf) years 1 km surface range (now) Payload: < 5 tonnes Risk: Low 0 years to develop $1 billion / year Robotic Missions(Goodlife) • Repeat the past 30 years • Do Mars exploration solely with robotics • Develop lots of human mission plans and theories • Give talks at seminars • Do some remote science to satisfy pesky scientists

21. Find The Robot

22. ROI: RIP Crew of 1 for 0 years 0 km surface range Payload: <1 tonne Risk: Low to (Inf) 0 years to develop $0.1 billion / year Absolute Minimal Human Mission(Millionaire Burial) • Send 1 person, crash landing • No equipment • No life support • No return: Dead On Arrival

23. ROI: Tech demonstration Crew of 1 for 2 years 0 km surface range Payload: 12 tonnes Risk: Low (volunteer) 5 years to develop $0.35 billion / year Minimal Living-Human Mission(Lonely Planets) • Send 1 person safely • No equipment • Minimal life support for 1 year ($300m hab, no CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water) • No return: Die On Mars • Per Mission: $700m

24. ROI: Mars settlement Crew of 3 for (Inf) years 500 km surface range Payload: 50 tonnes Risk: Medium (volunteer) 7 years to develop $2 billion / year Long Term Minimal Mission(Settlement) • Send 3 people safely • Base building equipment • CELSS life support for 6 years ($1b hab, 2 Ares) • No return: Die On Mars • Per Mission: $4b

25. ROI: Minimal Science Crew of 1 for 2 years 10 km surface range Payload: 40 tonnes Risk: High 7 years to develop $2 billion / year Minimal Return Mission(Lonely Science) • Send 1 scientist safely • Science equipment, ATV • Minimal life support for 2 years ($300m hab, no CELSS, 4 tonnes food/water, 2 Ares) • Return: ERV • Per Mission: $4b

26. ROI: Good science Crew of 4 for 2 years 500 km surface range Payload: 54 tonnes Risk: Medium 7 years to develop $3.5 billion / year Mars Direct • Send 4 people safely • Science equipment, Rover • CELSS life support for 2 years ($700m hab, 2 Ares) • Return: ERV • Per Mission: $7b

27. ROI: Good science, tech Crew of 6+ for 2 years 500 km surface range Payload: 100 tonnes Risk: High 10 years to develop $6 billion / year NASA Mars Reference Mission(Nuclear Propulsion is our Best Friend) • Send 6 or more people safely • Science equipment, Rover • CELSS life support for 2 years ($1.5b hab, 3 Ares) • Return: ERV (orbit+surface) • Per Mission: $12b (assume $2b for propulsion)

28. How Much Does a Mars Mission Cost? How Low Can We Go?

29. Well, What Do You Want To Do?

30. We Need.... A Baseline Mission!! • Goals/Capabilities/Benefits (Return on Investment) • Risk assessment • Timeframe • Investment per year

31. http://www.boulder.swri.edu/~benke/present/mars/missioninvest2004.htmlhttp://www.boulder.swri.edu/~benke/present/mars/missioninvest2004.html This presentation may be freely distributed. Please contact the author with any suggestions or corrections. Brian Enke Southwest Research Institute benke@boulder.swri.edu Author: Shadows of Medusa www.shadowsofmedusa.com