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Global change impact on ecosystems

Global change impact on ecosystems. Reinhart Ceulemans and Ivan Nijs University of Antwerp, Department of Biology (UA-PLECO). Impact on ‘structure, function and distribution of ecosystems’ (productivity, control measures, C sequestration)

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Global change impact on ecosystems

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  1. Global change impact on ecosystems Reinhart Ceulemans and Ivan Nijs University of Antwerp, Department of Biology (UA-PLECO)

  2. Impact on ‘structure, function and distribution of ecosystems’ (productivity, control measures, C sequestration) • Impact on ‘water and hydrology’ (hydrological basins, flow, sensitive fen ecosystems) • Impact on ‘biodiversity’ (extinction, control measures) • Interactions ‘ecosystems - CO2 and otherGHG’ (terrestrial sink, land use, soil acidification) • ‘What drives ecosystem changes ?’ (one or more factors, social ‘drivers’)

  3. C-stocks in terrestrial ecosystems and soil(F. Veroustraete, VITO and B. Van Wesemael, UCL)

  4. Fluxes of C - terrestral ecosystems and soil(F. Veroustraete, VITO and B. Van Wesemael, UCL)

  5. Terrestrial ecosystems = carbon sink? • Net ecosystem-productivity (NEP) Belgium: 14,500 kton C per year (1997) (C-Fix model, VITO)

  6. Total amount of C in soil is much larger than in wood and forests • Geographical link between carbon stock in the soil and vegetation productivity • Agricultural zones: low soil carbon • Source: (Lettens et al., 2004)

  7. Evolution of C-sequestration(L. François, ULg) • Carbon sequestration will increase under global change conditions, but in function of: (i) age; (ii) changing weather conditions; (iii) forest management.

  8. landscape fragmentation climate change habitat-destruction overhunting and overfishing biological invasions pollution eutrophication Plant and animal species disppear today by approximately 1,000 x the natural speed of extinction

  9. Population viability analysis (E. Le Boulangé, UCL) 17751973 Lienne vallei, Lierneux

  10. + grazing + warmer climate + grazing Model: predicts population size of vulnerable species under different scenarios of change current situation

  11. CARAIBmodel (Ulg, L. François)

  12. + - Growth response to a warmer climate apr may jun jul aug sep Agricultural area: 50% grassland Grassland species adapted to a moderate climate

  13. interaction? “Change is seldom driven by a single factor” (H. Geist, UCL) CO2 concentration: higher Air temperature: higher Climate: more extreme Biodiversity: lower Invasive exotics: more Habitat fragmentation: stronger …

  14. Exotic invasive plants

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