Global Climate Change Potential Impact on Plant Diseases

1. Global Climate Change Potential Impact on Plant Diseases Waldir Cintra de Jesus Junior (UFES) Francisco Xavier Ribeiro do Vale (UFV)

2. Land Use & Land Cover Bio-geochemistry CO2 Globalization, Trade & Transport Global Climate Change & IPM Climate Change Human Health Climate Volatility ICTBiotechnology Alien species & GMOs

3. Disease Triangle

4. Comparative Plant Disease Epidemiology • Early blight (tomato) • Angular and rust leaf spot (Common bean) • Soybean rust • Coffee leaf rust

6. (Coelho et al., 2001)

7. (Coelho et al., 2001)

9. (Paul et al., 2001)

10. Climate change Lower water use efficiency Accelerated plant development What can plant pathologists offer? Thermal stress Less water

11. Colletotrichum gloeosporioides causing anthracnose of Stylosanthes scabra (Chakraborty, 2000)

12. Fig. Free-air enrichment (FACE) apparatus using pure CO2 injection in the field. Rice plants were exposed in four paddies to elevated CO2 by growing them within 12-m-diameter rings which sprayed pure CO2 toward the center from peripheral emission tubes located 50 cm above the canopy. In another four paddies, plants were grown under ambient CO2 conditions with no ring structures in place. (Kobayashi et al., 2006)

13. Effects of Elevated Atmospheric CO2 Concentration on the Infection of Rice Sheath Blight (Kobayashi et al., 2006)

14. Medium temperature (ºC) for the actual climate and 2080, scenario A2 and B2, obtained from the average of 6 models (CCSR-NIES, CGCM, CSIRO, ECHAM, GFDL and HADCM3). Janeiro Janeiro Julho Julho Atual 2050 2080 – – A2 A2 2080 200 – – B2 B2

15. (Vale et al., 2000)

16. Incubation period of coffee leaf rust (days) (Rayner´smodel), to actual and 2050 (scenario A2 and B2) Atual 2050 2050 – – A2 A2 2050 – B2 January July (Hamada et al., 2005)

17. Modular mechanistic modelling Quantify adaptation options Integrate multiple taxa Climate-matching Mechanistic model Novel climates Taxon-based risk assessments Designed by biologists for biologists The only tool that meets these needs Site-Manager Organise site-specific information One Global Change Impacts Toolkit for Pests (Sutherst, 2006)

18. Regional Vulnerability EI Value Change in EI Vulnerability of Australian Horticulture to Pests under Climate Change Queensland Fruit Fly Light Brown Apple Moth Total Cost = $28.5m p.a. Total Cost = $21m Current Current +1.0°C +2.0°C +1.0°C +2.0°C (Sutherst, 2006)

19. (Vale, 1992)

20. Concluding remarks • The focus needs to shift from paddock-based assessment on specific diseases to a more ecologically relevant spatial and temporal unit to consider climate with other associated changes in land use and vegetation cover, among other.