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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 05 January 2009. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 05 January 2009 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Evolution and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Rainfall Patterns: Last 90 Days The CMAP precipitation dataset shows that, during the past 90 days, above normal precipitation occurred over most of the Tropics especially the eastern Indian Ocean, tropical central-southern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea. Precipitation was also above normal over the waters east and east of Japan. Precipitation was below normal over India, southeastern Indo-China peninsula, subtropical southern Indian Ocean, equatorial western Pacific, subtropical western North Pacific, and northeastern Asia.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 30 Days During the past 30 days, above normal precipitation occurred over the maritime continent and a band extending from the tropical eastern Indian Ocean, southern South China Sea, and East China Sea to the waters east of Japan. The Australian monsoon rainfall was above normal. Below normal precipitation was observed over the northern Bay of Bengal, East Asia, tropical-subtropical western Pacific, northeastern Australia, and western and subtropical southern Indian Ocean.
Rainfall Patterns: Last 5 Days During the past week, rainfall was overall near normal during the past week except the heavy rainfall over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and northern Australia monsoon region and the below-normal rainfall over the tropical western Pacific, around the Madagascar Island and western Indian Ocean.
Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes *This unified land-only daily precipitation dataset is different from the CMAP dataset used in the previous three spatial maps. • Consistent with the La Nina conditions, monsoon rainfall has been generally above normal over Indonesia, northern Australia, and many adjacent regions.
Atmospheric Circulation At the lower troposphere, above-normal easterlies continued to appear over tropical western Pacific and eastern maritime continent. Anomalous cyclonic patterns were observed to the northeast of Madagascar, west of Sumatra, and northwest of Australia. An anomalous anti-cyclonic pattern was located over southeastern China.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precipitation for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Predictions of Australian Monsoon • Upper panel: Australian monsoon index (Hung and Yanai 2004) defined as mean U850 over 15S-2.5S, 110E-150E. The NCEP Global Forecast System predicts that the Australian monsoon circulation will be stronger than normal in the next two weeks. • Lower panel: Correlation between precipitation and the Australian monsoon index (Hung and Yanai 2004; shading) and regression of 850-mb winds on the monsoon index (vectors) for January.
Summary • Monsoons have been near or above normal over much of northern Australia and Indonesia during the past week and month. • The NCEP GFS predicts that the intensity of Australian monsoon, measured by both monsoon rainfall and monsoon circulation, will be above normal in the next two weeks.
