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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction. Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 21, 2014. For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml. Outline.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 21, 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall over central/northern India, southeast Asian countries Korea, Japan, and eastern Australia have been below normal. Only few pockets of above normal rainfall are noted near Bangladesh, Burma, southeastern China, and in the maritime Indonesian islands.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall accumulation continues to be much below normal over much of India except in the northeast, Nepal, Burma and in parts of southeastern China. The India Met. Dept.(IMD) announced that the monsoon has finally advanced into all parts of India on July 17th and as of 21st of July the cumulative monsoon rainfall so far this season is 29% below long term mean. Also severe rainfall deficits exist over northeastern China.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, central and northern India got above normal rainfall, thus making the overall deficits in India slightly better than that was at the end of previous week.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
Atmospheric Circulation Due to technical issues, this map is one day behind than normal. The anomalous trough over the northern Bay of Bengal is associated with more rainfall in the region and vicinity.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall over central/northern India, southeast Asian countries Korea, Japan, and eastern Australia have been below normal. Only few pockets of above normal rainfall are noted near Bangladesh, Burma, southeastern China, and in the maritime Indonesian islands. For the past 30 days, rainfall accumulation continues to be much below normal over much of India except in the northeast, Nepal, Burma and in parts of southeastern China. The India Met. Dept.(IMD) announced that the monsoon has finally advanced into all parts of India on July 17th and as of 21st of July the cumulative monsoon rainfall so far this season is 29% below long term mean. Also severe rainfall deficits exist over northeastern China. In this past week, central and northern India got above normal rainfall, thus making the overall deficits in India slightly better than that was at the end of previous week. For the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is showing vast areas of below normal rainfall all over southeast Asia, except for some pockets of above normal rainfall over northern India, which may not be enough to compensate for the deficits in that region.
