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TARGET SETTING

TARGET SETTING. L-MEP. Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program. DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS ANALYSIS. Do the data support the development hypothesis?. DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS: OBJECTIVES. Analyze indicator data Analyze pattern of results within the Results Framework

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TARGET SETTING

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  1. TARGET SETTING L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS ANALYSIS Do the data support the development hypothesis?

  2. DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS: OBJECTIVES Analyze indicator data Analyze pattern of results within the Results Framework Form research/evaluation questions: Are the data telling the truth? Does the hypothesis hold up? Critical Assumptions hold? Is implementation working? L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 2

  3. What is a Development Hypothesis DEVELOPMENT HYPOTHESIS = A narrative description of the specific causal links between intermediate results and the assistance objective. (ADS 200.6) INTERPRETATION: A theory about how a specific development result will be achieved. It is a proposed model of reality around the desired development result. It expresses the causal linkages among contributing problems, which if solved, would cause the assistance objective to be achieved CONCLUSION: The theory must be demonstrated by data. L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 3

  4. What is a Results Framework Results Framework= A planning, communications, and strategic management tool that conveys the development hypothesis implicit in the Assistance Objective, illustrating the cause-and-effect linkages between outputs, Intermediate Results (IR), and the Assistance Objective (the final results or outcome) to be achieved with the assistance provided. (ADS 200.6) INTERPRETATION: A tool to use to test the development hypothesis with data and improve our understanding of reality around the development problem and thereby improve the development hypothesis. (Scientific Method) L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 4

  5. Analyze data for a single indicator Compare actual performance against target(s) Compare current performance against prior year Compare current performance to baseline(s) L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 5

  6. Analyze trends in performance Analyze target trend(s) against actual trend(s) Examine performance (met, exceeded or short of target) of lower results in relation to higher results Examine trend data from critical assumption and context indicator monitoring to help interpret results L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 6

  7. Assess USAID contribution Examine timing of results in relation to timing of USAID efforts Compare trends in results to trends in changes of level of effort Compare performance to control group or benchmarks in similar environments L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 7

  8. Analyze data for the group of indicators What is happening with respect to each individual result? Were performance targets met? How did performance compare with last year’s? What is the trend fromthe baseline year? How does the trendcompare with expectations? L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 8

  9. Rules of thumb… Results werenot achievedas intended Results wereachieved asintended It is not clear whether results would have been achieved L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program Program wasimplementedas planned Program wasimplementedas planned Programwas notimplementedas planned Strategyfailure Strategysuccess Strategyuncertainty 9

  10. Data analysis and use What are we going to do about it? Do we change the... Program? Results framework? Activities? Indicators? Targets? L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 10

  11. What do the data tell you? : 3 basic questions Do you trust your PMP data? Why and/or why not? Is the development hypothesis working? Why and/or why not? Assumptions hold? Is implementation working? Why and/or why not? (Do you need more information?) L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 11

  12. Middleland Case/USAID Let’s analyze the case in plenary together Indicator by indicator Result by result Pattern of results L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 12

  13. Task XI: Table Exercise All read the Development Hypothesis Narrative Divide up the Middleland Indicator Reference Sheets among yourselves and read them (there are 10) Look at the pattern of results in the Results Framework and formulate at least one question to research: PMP data telling the truth? Strategy works? Assumptions hold? What issues need research/evaluation. Report out 1 or + 60 min L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 13

  14. Session 7. Summary Do the data support the development hypothesis? How research/evaluation questions are born: PMP telling the truth? Strategy working? (including Critical Assumptions) Implementation working? No amount of data can prove me right. Any amount can prove me wrong. - Albert Einstein L-MEP Liberia - Monitoring & Evaluation Program 14

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