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The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System (TCModel 2011)

2012 Citilabs Asia User Conference. The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System (TCModel 2011). Teresa Chang, Planner. Sept. 5, 2012. Presentation Outline. Background of the Study Area What Do We Want to Know? Why Do We Update? How Do We Update?

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The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System (TCModel 2011)

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  1. 2012 Citilabs Asia User Conference The Transportation Demand Forecasting Model of Taichung Rapid Transit System (TCModel 2011) Teresa Chang, Planner Sept. 5, 2012

  2. PresentationOutline • Background of the Study Area • What DoWe Want to Know? • Why Do We Update? • How Do We Update? • Introduction of TCModel 2011

  3. Background— Study Area Taichung Changhua Taichung(29) Nantou Changhua(19) Nantou(2) • Study Area – Taichung Urban • Countys: Taichung, Changhua, Nantou • Towns: 50 • Area: 3,062.3 KM2 • Population: 3.95millionpeople

  4. Background -Railway MasterPlan • Operations • Taiwan Rail(gray) • Taiwan High Speed Rail • (yellow) Taichung • Construction • TR-Red Line • (the project • completion year is 2015) • MRT-Green Line • (the project • completion year is 2017) • Planning • MRT-Blue Line • MRT-Orange Line Nantou Changhua

  5. $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Background -OrangeLine TaichungAirport OA4 OA3 OA2 Taichung OA1 O1 O2 O3 O4/G7 O5 O6 O7 Downtown O8 O9/B9 O10 O11 O12 O13 Changhua O14 O15 O16 O17 Depot Nantou

  6. What Do We Want to Know? When the future wil build Orange Line , …… • 1 • Percent of Private Trips to Total • 2 • Orange Line Boarding (passengers/day)and Revenue • 3 • Traffic Impact of the Surrounding Area • 4 • Travel Time Savings (reduced travel time and new trips) • 5 • Vehicle Operating Cost Savings (fuel and non-fuel operating cost reductions) • 6 • Accident Cost Savings (safety benefits) • 7 • Emission Reductions(CO, NOx PM10) • 8 • Evaluating the Effectiveness of Policies

  7. Why Do We Update? • Development of TC Model • 1994 • 1998 • 2003 • 2009 • Tranplan+ Transport • Base Year: 1988 • Future Year: 2020 • TAZs: 138(132+6)zones • HouseholdTravelSurvey: 1990 • (Samples: 12,000) • TransCAD • Base Year: 2001 • Future Year: 2031 • TAZs : 257(253+4)zones • HouseholdTravelSurvey: No • TransCAD • Base Year: 2007 • Future Year: 2031 • TAZs: 257(253+4)zones • HouseholdTravelSurvey: No • Tranplan+ Transport • Base Year: 1994 • Future Year: 2021 • TAZs: 257 (253+4)zones • HouseholdTravelSurvey: 1995 • (Samples: 1,700) • The HouseholdTravelSurvey has been not conducted since 1995. • TransCAD using dialog boxes to input which can’t take down all steps. • Final model only has OD matries and the highway network. These data are out-of-date, incomplete or inaccurate.

  8. How Do We Update ? • Major updates • Update • screen line survey and cordon line survey • Better Data • Good Tools • Select a new modeling platform • (CUBE) Update travel behavior survey • Better Data • TCModel 1994 Update • TCModel 2011 • Better Data • Better Data Check and adjust trip generation rates • Reconstruct thehighway network and transit network • Better Data • Better Data • Update and forecast the demographic data • Check and update the Traffic Analysis Zones Better data and good tools can effectively improve model accuracy !

  9. How Do We Update ? –Model Methodology Outline Trip Generation • Model Structure: Sequential 4-step model Approaches Module • Production: Cross-classification • Attraction: Multiple Regression TripDistribution • Gravity Model • Impedance Function: Gamma Function Mode Split • Travel Behavior Survey: Stated Preference • Multinomial Logit Model(MNL) Traffic Assignment • HW: Multi-Modal Equilibrium Assignment Model • PT: Best-Path

  10. Introduction of TCModel2011–Model Structure • 4-step Travel Demand Modeling Procedure Mode Split Traffic Assignment Trip Distribution Trip Generation

  11. Introduction of TCModel2011–Model Characteristics • Traffic Analysis Zones • Network • Internal: 320 zones • External: 7 zones • Reserve: 16 zones • Total number of zones: 343 zones • Total number of links: 42,681links • Transit Lines: 335 lines • Analytical Modes • Analytical Period • Car • Motor • Bus • Taiwan Rail • MRT • Weekday • 24hrs • Peak hour

  12. Introduction of TCModel 2011–Scenario Management Interface • This provides a convenient interface for defining scenarios, editing and running the scenarios. • Planning Year: 2021(Y110), 2031(Y120) ,2041(Y130) • Scenarios: • LandUse Policies: Without TOD , With TOD • Traffic Policies: Bus headway, Oil prices, Parking fare

  13. Introduction of TCModel 2011–Applications of Model Outputs Model Outputs Applications of Model Outputs • Boarding Passengers • Passengers Per Hour in Peak Direction(PPHPD or p/h/d) • Passenger Kilometers Traveled (PKMT) • Passenger Hours Traveled (PHT) • Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKMT) • Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT) • Average Speeds • Volume to Capacity (V/C) Ratios • Station Design • Train Operation Plan • Economic Benefit-Cost Analysis • Financial Viability Analysis • Policy Analysis • Traffic Impact Analysis • Sreen Line Analysis

  14. The end Thank you! E-mail : teresa@thi.com.tw Taipei . Taichung . Kaohsiung . Shanghai . Hong Kong . Macau

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