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California’s Nursing Workforce: New Research

California’s Nursing Workforce: New Research. Joanne Spetz, Ph.D. University of California, San Francisco February 7, 2012. What is going on in our RN labor market?. More than a decade of severe shortage, 1998-2008 Reports that new graduates cannot find jobs 2009-now

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California’s Nursing Workforce: New Research

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  1. California’s Nursing Workforce:New Research Joanne Spetz, Ph.D. University of California, San Francisco February 7, 2012

  2. What is going on in our RN labor market? • More than a decade of severe shortage, 1998-2008 • Reports that new graduates cannot find jobs 2009-now • Stories that nurses are not retiring when expected • Shortages in some regions Context: Ongoing recession, high unemployment, severe regional differences

  3. Survey of Nurse Employers, Fall 2010 Collaboration between UCSF, CINHC, and HASC Email survey with option to return paper survey via fax or email Questions based on previous CINHC survey and National Forum of State Nursing Centers “Minimum Demand Data Set” recommendations Follow-up short survey conducted Spring 2011

  4. Perceptions of employers, fall 2010

  5. Differences across regions, Fall 2010 & Spring 2011 Lower number = more shortage

  6. Rural versus urban perceptions Lower number = more shortage

  7. Staff RN Vacancies, Fall 2010 & Spring 2011 Estimated 1,772 vacancies for new RN graduates in Fall 2010

  8. Planned employment growth for 2011 & 2012, from Fall 2010 These data are for respondents, not all California hospitals

  9. BRN surveys • Survey of RNs, 2010 • 10,000 RNs sampled, ~65% response rate • Paper survey with option to do online survey • Annual Schools Survey, 2010-11 • Online survey of all nursing programs • 100% response rate

  10. Employment rates by age, 2008 & 2010 Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Survey of RNs, 2010

  11. Reasons for not working in nursing% important or very important Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Survey of RNs, 2010

  12. Nurse earnings over time Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Survey of RNs, 2010

  13. Future plans of RNs Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Survey of RNs, 2010

  14. RN Graduations are expected to drop in 2012-2013 Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Annual Schools Report, 2009-2010

  15. Board of Registered Nursing Forecasts of Supply Nurses with Active Licenses Living in California Outflow of nurses Inflow of nurses Share of nurses who work, and how much they work Full-time equivalent supply of RNs

  16. The range of supply forecasts (RNs living in California) Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Forecasts of the RN Workforce, 2011

  17. Variation in FTE employment with assumptions about work and retirement Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Forecasts of the RN Workforce, 2011

  18. Forecast of Full-time Equivalent RNs per 100,000 population Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Forecasts of the RN Workforce, 2011

  19. What is demand? National benchmarks: Employed RNs per 100,000 Bureau of Labor Statistics, forecast of 2018 demand Growth based on current hospital employment & expected growth in patient days Potential impact of PPACA

  20. Forecasts of RN demand Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Forecasts of the RN Workforce, 2011

  21. Best supply and demand forecasts for RNs, 2009-2030 Source: California Board of Registered Nursing Forecasts of the RN Workforce, 2011

  22. Implications for policy • How do we define shortage? • Are current employment levels adequate? • Should California be at the national average? 25th percentile? Bottom? • Economic demand vs. need-based demand • In this economy… • Demand estimates have dropped and supply is high

  23. What is happening next? UCSF, CINHC, and the Hospital Associations is analyzing Year 2 of the employer survey UCSF & BRN are nearly done with the 2011-12 Annual Schools Survey 2012 BRN Survey of RNs (mailed in spring)

  24. Questions? Thoughts? Ideas? Perspectives?

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