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Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry T

Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends November 7, 2013. The Freight Economy.

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Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry T

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  1. Bob Costello Chief Economist & Vice President American Trucking Associations Economic & Motor Carrier Industry Trends November 7, 2013

  2. The Freight Economy • Washington continues to be a headwind on economic growth – 2013 tax increases, sequester, shutdown and debt ceiling, and healthcare (2014). • The housing recovery and auto production are helping freight volumes. • The U.S. energy production boom is boosting truck tonnage. • Slower manufacturing is a negative, along with a constrained consumer (x autos).

  3. Various Housing Industry Measures (YTD Year-Over-Year Percent Change) Sources: Census Bureau, NAR, and ATA

  4. Housing Summary • Rising prices and rising mortgage rates will slow the housing recovery, but not detail it. • 4.9-months supply of existing homes in September, down from 5.4-months in September 2012, which is helping home building. • Distressed homes – foreclosures and short sales – were 14% of sales in September, down from 24% a year earlier. • Home prices increased 12.0% from September 2013, the 19th straight gain, although prices are still 17.4% below April 2006 peak.

  5. Drivers of Household Spending Sources: BEA, BLS, and ATA

  6. Average Payroll Changes by Quarter Oct only: 204k Avg 158k Thousands 2010 – Q3 2013 Sources: DOL and ATA

  7. Retail Sales Level (Direction) Year-over-Year Percent Change (Speed) Billions Sources: Census Bureau & ATA

  8. World’s Top Manufacturing Economies Fact: U.S. is largest or second largest manufacturing country depending on how it is measured. Current $ Real $ with Exchange Rate Adjustments Source: United Nations

  9. Factory Output Year-over-Year Percent Change Level of Production 2007 = 100 Sources: Federal Reserve & ATA

  10. Crude and Natural Gas Production (Annual Increases) Source: Energy Information Administration

  11. Real Gross Domestic Product (quarterly, annualized rate percent change, 2005 dollars) 2010 – Q4 2014 Sources: BEA and ATA

  12. Trucking Trends: Demand

  13. Changes in Freight Volumes (Seasonally Adjusted) Sources: ATA’s Monthly Truck Tonnage Report,Trucking Activity Report, & DAT.com

  14. Changes in TL Loads by Sector (Seasonally Adjusted) Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

  15. Trucking Trends: Capacity

  16. TL Capacity Changes (Percent Change in the Number of Company & IC Tractors) Includes all types of truckload carriers Source: ATA’s Trucking Activity Report

  17. Are All TL Fleets Adding Capacity? No Average Month in 2013 Source: ATA

  18. U.S. Used Class 8 Truck Exports Sources: U.S. Trade Data & ATA

  19. TL Supply vs Demand 2005 = 100 TL Tractor Count Index TL Loads Index Oversupply Through September 2013 Source: ATA

  20. THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTAdding It All Up

  21. The Driver Situation

  22. TL Truck Driver Turnover Rates Q2 2013 Large TL: 99% Small TL: 82% LTL: 6% Source: ATA

  23. Construction Industry Snapshot Over the last year, construction employment has increased by 185,000. And, in February 2013 alone, construction payrolls grew by 48,000, the largest single month in 7 years. Sources: Census Bureau and Department of Labor

  24. Industry Costs

  25. Costs Continue to Rise

  26. Average Weekly Earnings for TL Drivers +59% since 1990 Source: Department of Labor

  27. Real Average Weekly Earnings for TL Drivers 2013 Dollars -10% since 1990 Source: Department of Labor

  28. Miles Per Truck Per Month Are Down Includes all types of TL carriers Source: ATA

  29. Thanks! Follow me on Twitter: @ATAEconBob

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