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Recent Developments That Affect North American Gas Supply. Brian Morse Manager, Gas Supply. Safe Harbor Statement.
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Recent Developments That Affect North American Gas Supply Brian Morse Manager, Gas Supply
Safe Harbor Statement Some of the statements in this document concerning future company performance will be forward-looking within the meanings of the securities laws. Actual results may materially differ from those discussed in these forward-looking statements, and you should refer to the additional information contained in Spectra Energy’s Form 10-K and other filings made with the SEC concerning factors that could cause those results to be different than contemplated in today's discussion. Reg G Disclosure In addition, today’s discussion includes certain non-GAAP financial measures as defined under SEC Regulation G. A reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is available on our website.
Recap: U.S. Gas Supply & Demand Source: EIA and other public data sources
Canadian Gas Exports to the U.S. (2007 vs. 2013) Alliance & NorthDakota Iroquois Sumas Northern Border GTN Minnesota Niagara Source: Energy Information Administration
Recap: Western Canada Production 13 Bcf/d 5 Bcf/d Source: Alberta and B.C. Governments
Perspective on Horizontal Wells 215 m Calgary Skyline Montney Horn River Duvernay
B.C. Resource Estimates Montney (liquids-rich) gas production is growing in all three sub-regions of Western Canada, in step with gathering, processing and liquids extraction infrastructure development. Source: Energy Briefing Note – The Ultimate Potential for Unconventional Petroleum from the Montney Formation of British Columbia and Alberta
B.C. Drilling Response to Lower Gas Exports Source: B.C. Government
Montney Production Responds to Drilling 650 MMcf/d 1,630 MMcf/d 900 MMcf/d BC Alberta Source: Alberta and B.C. Governments
North-South Split Forecast 57% of B.C. Fairway acreage 3.7 Bcf/d NEB BC Tight Gas Forecast North Montney 43% of B.C. Fairway acreage 2.8 Bcf/d South Montney Source: National Energy Board (NEB), 2013
Utica is Established Marcellus Utica Source: EIA
Relative Ranking of Established Gas Supply Sources in North America Barnett Haynesville Eagle Ford Marcellus Horn River Montney Duvernay *Supply Cost: Includes capital costs, operating costs, transportation, government take and a 10% return under full field development Source: Wood Mackenzie, October 2011 via Nexen Investor Presentation 2012-07
Gas Price vs. Gas Supply • North American gas supplies are large and have widely varying associated costs • The recent shale gas supply surge has added large sources of supply with relatively low development costs • There are approximately 900 Tcf available at a cost of supply of $4.00/Mcf, or less Tcf of Gas Available Quantity is not the issue... price is Source: 2011 MIT Study on the Future of Natural Gas, Figure 2.10
How Much is 900 Tcf? • 900 Tcf available at $4.00/Mcf or less • Compared to U.S. and Canada’s cumulative gas demand • Includes LNG exports and domestic growth in residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation demand • Cumulative consumption does not reach 900 Tcf in the next 25 years * LNG Exports assumes first exports of 6 Bcf/day in 2015, increasing to 20 Bcf/d in 2022, then flat Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration and Canadian National Energy Board 2011 Forecast
B.C. LNG Locations Stewart Kitsault Prince Rupert Kitimat Campbell River Squamish Port Alberni Delta
Oregon LNG Locations GTN NWP Warrenton Coos Bay Malin Proposed Connector
Reaction to China RussiaGas Supply Announcement Massive Russia-China gas deal to shake up LNG markets The Globe and Mail Russia-China Natural Gas Deal to Set LNG Price Floor Bank of America Russia-China gas deal puts heat on BC’s LNG sector Vancouver Sun Russia-China gas deal could squeeze economics of Canadian LNG projects TD Russia and China’s $400 billion natural gas deal is bad news for BC LNG. Canadian Business The world does not need Canadian LNG former Shell exec China’s natural gas supply options greatly exceed market requirements CanadaWest Foundation 3.8 Bcf/d x 30 years
Russian Supply Perspective Source: Gazprom, Rosneft, Novatek, BP Statistical Review of World Energy
China Demand Perspective Source: Energy Information Administration, BP Energy Outlook, International Energy Agency
New U.S. Demand Identified • GTL • High returns with methane feedstock prices low and liquid products prices high • Smaller strategically placed projects expected to be funded • Proposed locations in Marcellus-Utica, Gulf Coast and Rockies currently • Methanol • Used as a petrochemical feedstock and to produce gasoline • Low cost gas feedstock and rising demand worldwide for methanol attract investment • Facilities planned in Gulf Coast area and West Coast for export to China • Fertilizer • Producing ammonia and nitrogen requires natural gas for hydrogen content and heat energy • Domestic demand is up and feedstock (gas) prices are down • Planned locations more spread out than GTL or Methanol • Transportation • Road, rail, and shipping industries gradually migrating to natural gas fuel • Proposed facilities dedicated to large airports Magnitude 3 Bcf/d Demand Growth (to 2018) Transportation 500 mmcf/d 17% GTL400 MMcf/d 13% Fertilizer 1,100 MMcf/d 37% Methanol 1,000 MMcf/d 33%