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Fusion in the future energy mix

Fusion in the future energy mix. Marc Beurskens FOM institute for plasma physics "Rijnhuizen" 3430 BE Nieuwegein, PO Box 1207 The Netherlands Marc.Beurskens@rijnh.nl. Questionnaire on energy in 2100. Fusion’s contribution in 2100?. Fusion’s contribution in 2100?.

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Fusion in the future energy mix

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  1. Fusion in the future energy mix Marc Beurskens FOM institute for plasma physics "Rijnhuizen" 3430 BE Nieuwegein, PO Box 1207 The Netherlands Marc.Beurskens@rijnh.nl Fusion in the future energy mix

  2. Questionnaire on energy in 2100 Fusion in the future energy mix

  3. Fusion’s contribution in 2100? Fusion in the future energy mix

  4. Fusion’s contribution in 2100? Fusion in the future energy mix

  5. Fusion’s contribution in 2100? Fusion in the future energy mix

  6. Fusion’s contribution in 2100? Fusion in the future energy mix

  7. Which of these will have a contribution of more than 10% in 2100? Fusion in the future energy mix

  8. Which of these will be the cheapest in 2100? Fusion in the future energy mix

  9. Energy issues one hears about • Oil will run out • Security of supply • The climate is going to change • Energy poverty Fusion in the future energy mix

  10. How much oil is left? Fusion in the future energy mix

  11. BP says 40 years 7000 Oil production (Mt/year) 3500 0 0 40 Years from now Fusion in the future energy mix

  12. 7000 Oil production (Mt/year) 3500 0 0 30 Years from now Fusion in the future energy mix

  13. 15 7000 Oil production (Mt/year) 3500 0 0 Years from now Fusion in the future energy mix

  14. Where is the oil? Miljard vaten (source BP statistical review 2002) Fusion in the future energy mix

  15. Conventional Conventional (upper) Unconventional 560 480 400 320 240 160 80 0 Resources R/P ratio (Years) Oil Gas Coal Resources limited? Fusion in the future energy mix

  16. Not if we accept to use coal Fusion in the future energy mix

  17. Fossil fuels • Run out but probably only on the long run • Induce security of supply problems Fusion in the future energy mix

  18. Any other issues? Fusion in the future energy mix

  19. Climate change Fusion in the future energy mix

  20. CO2 is Prime Greenhouse gas Fusion in the future energy mix

  21. CO2 concentration • Was 280 ppm • Is 360 ppm • Will be? Fusion in the future energy mix

  22. How much CO2 are we going to emit this century? Fusion in the future energy mix

  23. CO2 emission scenarios… 100 years from now? Now 1000 ppm scenario 550 ppm scenario Source: IPCC SRES emission scenarios Fusion in the future energy mix

  24. CO2 is Prime Greenhouse gas Fusion in the future energy mix

  25. Now already 0.5 oC increase 550 ppm Fusion in the future energy mix

  26. So we need to get rid of fossil fuels because: • They run out on the long run • They contribute to political instability • And most importantly they contribute to global warming Fusion in the future energy mix

  27. Can we make a prediction for the future energy consumption? Fusion in the future energy mix

  28. CO2 emission scenarios… Source: IPCC SRES emission scenarios Fusion in the future energy mix

  29. World energy consumption 2020 2030 2040 1990 2000 2010 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 IIASA B-scenario 1600 “South” 1400 “North” 1200 1000 Energy consumption (EJ) 800 600 400 200 0 Year Fusion in the future energy mix

  30. New Renewable 0.6% Traditional biomass 6.4% Hydropower 6.6% Wind Nuclear fission 6.0% Solar Geo- thermal Coal 21.8% New biomass Gas 21.1% 80% fossil Oil 37.5% What does the current mix look like? Source: IEA Fusion in the future energy mix

  31. Must be CO2 free 550 ppm Now 80% fossil 2020 2030 2040 1990 2000 2010 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Which part may remain fossil? 1600 1400 1200 1000 Energy consumption (EJ) 800 600 400 200 0 Year Source: VN, IPCC Fusion in the future energy mix

  32. Target European Commission • 50% emission reduction in 2050 • Now assume that the rest of the world would also do this… Fusion in the future energy mix

  33. “The entire world has 50% carbon free energy in 2050” 50% carbon free 2020 2030 2040 1990 2000 2010 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 1600 1400 1200 1000 Energy consumption (EJ) 800 600 400 200 0 Year Fusion in the future energy mix

  34. What are the options for 2050? Energy saving Solar Wind Biomass Hydro Nuclear fission Carbon sequestration Fusion in the future energy mix

  35. Fossil fuels Fusion in the future energy mix

  36. Nuclear Energy Fusion in the future energy mix

  37. Hydro Energy Fusion in the future energy mix

  38. Energy saving Fusion in the future energy mix

  39. Solar Energy Fusion in the future energy mix

  40. Example: To cover 5% of current energy in Europe We need to install 600 times the current world capacity of solar PV This would cover the Netherlands Fusion in the future energy mix

  41. Wind Energy Fusion in the future energy mix

  42. Country or region Cumul. installed (GW) 2002 share of electricity by wind Germany 12 4% Spain 5 5.5% Denmark 2.8 18.5% EU 24 2% US 4.7 0.3% Total World 32 0.45% Contribution to electricity of wind energy in 2003 Fusion in the future energy mix

  43. Currently 2% of electricity in Europe: 24 GW of wind 20% of electricity in Europe means 240 GW of wind Fusion in the future energy mix

  44. Which means 1500 big wind parks Horns Rev in Denmark: 160 MW (80 mills of 2MWp) Fusion in the future energy mix

  45. Biomass Energy Fusion in the future energy mix

  46. Example: To cover 5% of current energy in Europe We need to cover France with energy crops Fusion in the future energy mix

  47. CO2 storage Fusion in the future energy mix

  48. Hydrogen economy • To make hydrogen from electrolyses is too expensive (factor 2-3) • Fuel cells are too expensive (factor 10) • Hydrogen is essential as energy storage for intermittent sources Fusion in the future energy mix

  49. There is no single alternative energy source that can replace the role of fossil fuels Fusion in the future energy mix

  50. In total • All the renewable sources would add up to about 50% if all works perfectly • Nuclear fission and carbon sequestration could fill in the gaps. Fusion in the future energy mix

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